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phil nw.

Model Output Discussions 12z 30/11/16

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45 minutes ago, knocker said:

Ground or air :whistling:

2mdewpoint_d02_32.png

 

Don't know, however the easterly had us in a lot of rain yesterday evening, and still looks convective now.

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35 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

 so not as pessimistic as IDO's post, but equally it must be restated that blocked might not mean cold either.

It's a difficult balance to strike between pessimistic and realistic, fine margins. IDO is usually accurate with good technical input.

Edited by Frosty.

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Some  variations short term on the eps but these are available for all to see. 

In the extended period, still high anomolys  to our nw with weak upper ridging (not quite as strong as last two runs) to follow a pretty mobile day or two and whilst the high anomolys depart Europe (some low ones beginning to establish over Iberia) they don't go completely to our se which means the Russian trough looks less inclined to head sw.  The upper ridging over Europe is definitely gone by the end of week2. The envelope remains pretty wide and I would guess the new run contains a cluster which brings a ridge more to our north rather than northwest and more of an easterly flow component as opposed to ne. The Dutch ens seem to contain a reasonable easterly grouping. 

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39 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

And some even hitting the minus 10 line which is a good sign

 

Funnily enough the prob on the eps of -10c getting into the uk from the east is between 0 and 10%.  and that's an increasing trend on the prob map though where we sit at the end of the easterly train track isn't ideal! 

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5 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Some  variations short term on the eps but these are available for all to see. 

In the extended period, still high anomolys  to our nw with weak upper ridging (not quite as strong as last two runs) to follow a pretty mobile day or two and whilst the high anomolys depart Europe (some low ones beginning to establish over Iberia) they don't go completely to our se which means the Russian trough looks less inclined to head sw.  The upper ridging over Europe is definitely gone by the end of week2. The envelope remains pretty wide and I would guess the new run contains a cluster which brings a ridge more to our north rather than northwest and more of an easterly flow component as opposed to ne. The Dutch ens seem to contain a reasonable easterly grouping. 

Would pretty much agree with that/ Looking at the 200mb wind field at the end there is quite a rapid drop in speed and certainly a move to ridging in the eastern Atlantic but that's all it's been of late.

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10 minutes ago, fergieweather said:

 Although a colder, blocked outcome is still favoured at present, it's only marginally so and certainly considerably less than a few days ago.

Confidence has definitely fallen 're a cold anticyclonic 2nd half of Dec, it could almost equally be average / mild zonal now.

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Let's hope we see more gfs ensemble hit the minus 10 line in the coming days as I understand that's a good sign of a change to much colder weather 

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5 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Confidence has definitely fallen 're a cold anticyclonic 2nd half of Dec, it could almost equally be average / mild zonal now.

Seems that way, and luck would say it would no doubt go mild - however I'll wait till early next week and see what's occurring in the models, as I still think we'll hit the jackpot before Xmas and hopefully on the big day itself.  

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Least we still have chance it's not been written off entirely by the met....yet :(

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5 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Confidence has definitely fallen 're a cold anticyclonic 2nd half of Dec, it could almost equally be average / mild zonal now.

It could. It's actually quite interesting to know that nobody (including the models :D) really knows what might happen beyond mid month. Could be good could be bad but it's fascinating watching, trying to pick out clues and trends in the far reaches of FI and waiting to see if the background signals and teleconnections fall into place.

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3 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Seems that way, and luck would say it would no doubt go mild - however I'll wait till early next week and see what's occurring in the models, as I still think we'll hit the jackpot before Xmas and hopefully on the big day itself.  

Yes Ali, this isn't doom and gloom, it's becoming more realistic and to be honest there has not been any support for cold with snow in weeks 3 and 4..just stagnant anticyclone.

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23 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Seems that way, and luck would say it would no doubt go mild - however I'll wait till early next week and see what's occurring in the models, as I still think we'll hit the jackpot before Xmas and hopefully on the big day itself.  

Well then my preference is for heights to position somewhere favourable to disturbing the PV further. If it's knife edge we do tend to miss out, so I would rather sustain an attack on the PV and get a better shot further down the line. 

Controversial perhaps as I know many want cold now. Anyway it will be interesting viewing as to how this plans out. Should get some eye candy and equally some pretty ugly looking runs in the coming days. 

Edited by karlos1983

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Another hopeless 6z gfs if its cold and snow you want  - very strong jet coming out the states, difficult to see anything good coming from this run....

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1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Another hopeless 6z gfs if its cold and snow you want  - very strong jet coming out the states, difficult to see anything good coming from this run....

It seems that way but no one is writing off mid month for possible cold and while the experts still undecided then I'm hoping it swings coldies way but lots more runs needed guys so buckle up were in for a hell of a winter ride me thinks 

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6 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Another hopeless 6z gfs if its cold and snow you want  - very strong jet coming out the states, difficult to see anything good coming from this run....

I'm not sure it's finished yet... in any case, the ensembles would be where I would go for the trends as individual runs are meaningless at this stage.

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9 minutes ago, fergieweather said:

Whilst we've seen a gamut of overreaction to recent operational runs by some folk, as Matt and Nick both stress: it's currently impossible to offer worthwhile clarity at that extended lead time, so just not worth the raised blood pressure!

The mean charts have been / are uninspiring too for coldies, not just the operationals with just occasional glimmers of hope from individual perturbations.

Edited by Frosty.

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9 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

The mean charts have been / are uninspiring too for coldies, not just the operationals with just occasional glimmers of hope from individual perturbations.

Karl - I suspect ian means the ens when he refers to op models as they are suites that contain an operational run 

tbh - the mean anomolys end week 2 are saying blocked rather than zonal so not sure they are really headed away from monthly tools. 

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Morning

Looking at the 6z besides the unsettled outlook is the westward movement of the pv.At day ten"fi i know" but the nhp is pretty horrific imo regarding any blocking.Listening to ians comment it does seem that any solution is possible but given our proximity and our luck im of the opinion a more zonal outlooklook is on the cards for the majority of december.note imo only!!!

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 Not a great 06z but still looks like something could spring out in FI, I think watching the ENS could be more telling when looking in the long range, especially when there are jumps from run to run.

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12 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Karl - I suspect ian means the ens when he refers to op models as they are suites that contain an operational run 

 

Fair enough Blue:)

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