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Model Output Discussions 12z 30/11/16

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8 hours ago, fergieweather said:

 

Yes, but 12z EC EPS are starting to lean back towards a different mode. Early days.

Any more info on this comment anyone - I think he meant things are looking better towards colder Synoptics again !! 

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40 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Well the good news is that frost will return this weekend, especially in rural parts where minus 4 celsius is likely but nearer minus 1 to plus 2 c in towns and cities. Increasing amounts of sunshine too as we import drier air from the continent, the sunniest weather today across southern england but then more widely across the uk tomorrow into the start of next week but then it's going to become much milder, breezier / windier with rain at times as winds turn southwesterly and we draw tropical maritime air up across the uk.

"Frost returning this weekend" we had hard frosts every morning last week down here in Cornwall, some days the frost lingered all day. The coldest start to winter for a long time! First time since 2010 I've scraped the ice block of a car in the morning to get to work and in the afternoon to get home from work !!

But no frost this morning!!

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27 minutes ago, knocker said:

Naturally the ecm has a different interpretation to the GFS as we get towards the end of next week . Instead of the strong zonal flow it again reamplifies and is very meridional and not only that it also deconstructs the upper trough to the west  This leads to surface lows tracking up from the south west although the fronts are forced north around the HP nestling to the south. But with the airstream from this direction there is  an infusion of air with temps above average. Behind all of this the Azores once more amplifies north only to be cut down by a new surge of energy from the west. In the meantime the cold trough is swinging SE across Scandinavia.

ecm_mslp_uv850_natl_8.png

Certainly the latest 00z ecm looking far less unsettled than the previous run for the latter stages of next week and possibly beyond with those ever tedious heights to our south, be it a euro slug or azores high deflecting systems north, which will more likely be the way things pan out as the gfs has a tendency to at times be over progressive. Over simplistic perhaps but it does now look as if we're about to enter an indefinite period of average to slightly above temps with just occasional pm incursions. In summary, all very average for the time of year. :nonono:

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9 minutes ago, John Badrick said:

But no frost this morning!!

Well that's what I meant, there has been more cloud in the last day or so but as we import dry continental air this weekend,  more sunshine and more clear skies overnight = the frost will return more widely..and into early next week.:)

Edited by Frosty.

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8 minutes ago, booferking said:

I think this will be on the mark.

Cysuf_HXEAAirtp.jpg

That anomaly chart from ECM is looking very nice. I'm assuming this is the type of pattern the Mets longer range forecasts have been seeing. (up until the latest Ec46) so hopefully we will see return to this on EClonger range on Monday. 

 

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2 minutes ago, chris55 said:

Main vortex looking fragmented with potential heights building to our north. One to watch.

 

IMG_1519.PNG

We know its bad when we are showing ECM D10 charts. Compare with GEM and GFS at the same time:

gfsnh-0-240 (1).pnggemnh-0-240 (1).png

It looks like GEM & GFS are going with a period where the PV regroups at around D10, and this has been consistent for sometime. After D10, low confidence on the PV progress and as this is clearly the driver for the NH pattern at the moment then uncertainty. What does not look like changing is the lack of any blocked pattern from prolonged forcing (up to D16 GEFS); just the Azores oscillating, maybe pushing some WAA into mid-lats, but half-hearted at best. Until we see any consistent attack from heights, rather than just broken off high pressure wedges or filling as the PV meanders then this pattern looks locked in on what we can currently see modelled. Up to D16 there is very little sign, the odd ensemble (which is to be expected) so although the UK surface conditions difficult to predict no sign on the GEFS moving towards the extended EPS just yet.

I would not call anything after D16 as the current setup, with a very tame PV is ripe for a rapid move towards a more meridional flow, in fact it is such a pain that we are wasting such perfect synoptics. There is a lot of cold air seeping down further south than the UK latitude, its just the UK is the only place in the whole NH catching a milder flow! 

 

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9 hours ago, karlos1983 said:

I like the D10 ECM

IMG_3812.PNG

pv almost split, pressure rising to the north and troughing to the east. Not really that hard to see a route to cold from there let's be honest!

yes it needs some work, but that's the beauty of a D10 chart, time is a plenty 

Now admittedly I didn't expect it to be quite that quick, but I knew that D10 chart had potential. Now look 12 hours later :shok:

IMG_3816.PNG

Great to read Ian's comment. 

PS why Is the GFS broken on meteociel. 

Edited by karlos1983

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6 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Well that's what I meant, there has been more cloud in the last day or so but as we import dry continental air this weekend, the frost will return more widely..and into early next week.:)

Ground or air :whistling:

2mdewpoint_d02_32.png

 

Edited by knocker

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5 minutes ago, knocker said:

Ground or air :whistling:

2mdewpoint_d02_32.png

 

Both, ground in cities, air in towns and especially countryside.:cold: minus 4 in rural parts of England and Wales, minus 6 in parts of rural Scotland.

Edited by Frosty.

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4 minutes ago, knocker said:

Ground or air :whistling:

2mdewpoint_d02_32.png

 

Tough to chase those cloudy patches around knocks - for Sidney, I expect the flow off the channel long enough to keep him happy! 

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Well there is that with a thick layer of Sc at the moment with slight drizzle

2016120300.03808.skewt.parc.gif

 

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8 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Now admittedly I didn't expect it to be quite that quick, but I knew that D10 chart had potential. Now look 12 hours later :shok:

IMG_3816.PNG

Great to read Ian's comment. 

PS why Is the GFS broken on meteociel. 

Some exciting model watching ahead the next 3 days to see if it survives or even grows more, if it does there is a good chance we will see it come to reality of it dies within a few runs we won't see it coming back to life however

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30 minutes ago, IDO said:

We know its bad when we are showing ECM D10 charts. Compare with GEM and GFS at the same time:

gfsnh-0-240 (1).pnggemnh-0-240 (1).png

It looks like GEM & GFS are going with a period where the PV regroups at around D10, and this has been consistent for sometime. After D10, low confidence on the PV progress and as this is clearly the driver for the NH pattern at the moment then uncertainty. What does not look like changing is the lack of any blocked pattern from prolonged forcing (up to D16 GEFS); just the Azores oscillating, maybe pushing some WAA into mid-lats, but half-hearted at best. Until we see any consistent attack from heights, rather than just broken off high pressure wedges or filling as the PV meanders then this pattern looks locked in on what we can currently see modelled. Up to D16 there is very little sign, the odd ensemble (which is to be expected) so although the UK surface conditions difficult to predict no sign on the GEFS moving towards the extended EPS just yet.

I would not call anything after D16 as the current setup, with a very tame PV is ripe for a rapid move towards a more meridional flow, in fact it is such a pain that we are wasting such perfect synoptics. There is a lot of cold air seeping down further south than the UK latitude, its just the UK is the only place in the whole NH catching a milder flow! 

Oddly looking at the GFS ensembles at day 10, the trend actually isn't that clear, I certainly wouldn't discount the ECM which for the last two runs has tried to develop some cut off heights somewhere north of the UK  From counting 2 develop a Greenland block at day 10, half a dozen have built or are building heights east of Greenland towards Scandinavia with a coupe more going for a UK high. A standard westerly flow is favoured, but not hugely so.

From the general operation and ensemble consensus, major cluster is a Euro high with a west/south west flow, the second is heights developing probably to our north east (this could be mild/cool or cold depending on how the high builds and orientates). This mornings output isn't as bad a place as say 24 hours ago in my opinion.

GEFs anomalies do want to go for a high to the north east longer term, very much like the CFS

gensnh-21-5-240.png      gensnh-21-5-300.png   gensnh-21-5-384.png

Low pressure seems to want to remain to our north west though.   

Edited by Captain Shortwave

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The Gfs 00z shows a much milder spell on the way, I think sidney is quite excited!:D

ukmaxtemp.png

hgt500-1000.png

ukmaxtemp (1).png

ukmaxtemp (2).png

hgt500-1000 (1).png

th.jpg

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2 minutes ago, ArHu3 said:

Some exciting model watching ahead the next 3 days to see if it survives or even grows more, if it does there is a good chance we will see it come to reality of it dies within a few runs we won't see it coming back to life however

The ECM is certainly much better than the much flatter upstream GFS. However whilst the ECM could go on and produce a wintry spell it is unlikely to be significant unless we see the lobe of PV towards Baffin Island back W.  Only then would this allow more significant blocking to develop.

Again I continue to be uninspired with the output. Most likely outlook is the milder spell to be replaced by cooler W,lys bringing wind, rain. Any cold spells are likely to be brief with snowfall only favouring high ground.

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40 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

People - you have all seen the eps chart for T360 on here via twitter. You all saw it before ian made his post to re inforce it. That's where the eps were 12 hours ago which was trending back to where Exeter expected the evolution to go before the Pacific shenanigans  at the same time that the thurs 46 was initialised. we will find out within the hour if the runs repeats for a third time re blocking to our nw. 

IF it's consistent and if Monday evening reveals the next 46 to be back where it was before, you can't say that you weren't warned about  the potential model fluctuation. Anyway, getting well ahead of ourselves - 2 runs doth not a winter make and all that ..........

Good post BA. Personally I'm seeing 50/50 choice between blocked/zonal in the D10-D15, so not as pessimistic as IDO's post, but equally it must be restated that blocked might not mean cold either.

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I hope this new area of Tropical disturbance over Sumatra does'nt throw another spanner into the works its forecasted development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low so hopefully it stays that way.

Hopefully we see more pronounced heights build into the charts.

ECH1-240.gif

Edited by booferking

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The GFS ens continues to show the 850's heading back down to 0 around mid month a growing trend over the past 3 days or so

gefsens850London0.png

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7 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

The GFS ens continues to show the 850's heading back down to 0 around mid month a growing trend over the past 3 days or so

gefsens850London0.png

Still barely a sniff of anything decent in the ensemble suite though.. If the ECM is on to something we need to start seeing a serious trend in the GEFS.

 

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Not a great deal of change overnight from the ECM ens we start the week with a southerly quickly shifting to a south westerly this then stays in place until D9 when we see a westerly flow taking over

ECMAVGEU00_72_2.pngECMAVGEU00_96_2.pngECMAVGEU00_144_2.png

ECMAVGEU00_192_2.pngECMAVGEU00_240_2.png

Edited by Summer Sun

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44 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Now admittedly I didn't expect it to be quite that quick, but I knew that D10 chart had potential. Now look 12 hours later :shok:

IMG_3816.PNG

Great to read Ian's comment. 

PS why Is the GFS broken on meteociel. 

Still broken. That's annoying

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8 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

The GFS ens continues to show the 850's heading back down to 0 around mid month a growing trend over the past 3 days or so

gefsens850London0.png

And some even hitting the minus 10 line which is a good sign

 

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Just want to thank those on here that post the twitter feeds and anomaly charts. Most on here don't have access to these tools so it is much appreciated :)

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