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phil nw.

Model Output Discussions 12z 30/11/16

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4 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

I think we may get a pressure rise out to our E/NE late FI

gfsnh-0-240.png?18

It's trying!!

IMG_3683.PNG

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The signs are there, so it's not massively surprising 

lets hope we can build on this on future runs 

Edited by karlos1983

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That's about as poor an effort from the 18z op as we saw from the 12z ens re height rises to our ne late on! There were much better options 6 hours ago!

Edited by bluearmy

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2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

That's about as poor an effort from the 18z op as we saw from the 12z ens re height rises to our ne late on! There were much better options 6 hours ago!

I'd rather have the 12z ending than the 18z

gfsnh-0-384.png?12  gfsnh-0-372.png?18

At least with the first you have  low heights over Europe so you might at least hope for something diving SE with heights rising behind. Much better placement of the Vortex too. All academic at that range though. 

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Well, I was willing the jet to plunge southwards by the end of the run but... as Catherine Tate's nan would say, "what a load of old sh#*...."

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grim stuff form the GFS looks like a repeat of december 2015 with storm after storm rolling in and in the later stages a euro slug to go with it nasty i dear hope its over doing things somewhat or it will be a long mild december by the looks of it

Edited by igloo

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Thankfully everyone knows my opinion on post T240hrs output so I won't be losing any sleep over the GFS horror show after that point.

Unfortunately its a hard slog to get any undercutting, the GFS briefly tries and at one point we saw that high developing over Scandi but unfortunately that got blasted away.

Overall we're chasing a few scraps of hope because the outputs do show some interest to the ne and the ECM might develop a bit more favourably but theres no clear route currently to what most want to see.

 

 

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At least the 18z is better stratospherically than the previous runs. It could support a ridge of high pressure over us and much of Europe including Scandinavia while the vortex looks stretched.

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18 minutes ago, igloo said:

grim stuff form the GFS looks like a repeat of december 2015 with storm after storm rolling in and in the later stages a euro slug to go with it nasty i dear hope its over doing things somewhat or it will be a long mild december by the looks of it

Storm after storm rolling in ??

Not one gets across the UK, its hardly like 2015

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12 minutes ago, fergieweather said:

 

Yes, but 12z EC EPS are starting to lean back towards a different mode. Early days.

Ian , has glosea 5 remained steadfast in its approach to mid month onwards or has it waned recently as well ? 

 

I'm guessing this 'different mode' would only back up what glosea 5 has been turning out and if it is then I take my hat of to it ...

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21 minutes ago, ALL ABOARD said:

Ian , has glosea 5 remained steadfast in its approach to mid month onwards or has it waned recently as well ? 

 

I'm guessing this 'different mode' would only back up what glosea 5 has been turning out and if it is then I take my hat of to it ...

Irrespective of both, the GEFS aren't without interest either. A lot of height rises to the N, NE, and the UK - with a greenie to throw in the mix too. I'm the first to admit that none bring severe or even notable cold to our shores - and most say potential rather than anything more substantive - but they are a hell of a lot more interesting than some posts might otherwise suggest. Add IFs comments to the fold about ECMWF ensembles and GloSea 5 leaning back towards cold in some way or another, and this is by no means a done deal. We aren't yet seeing virtually half th month in the charts. I admit things look bleak as compared to five days ago, but it's not yet a done deal. Still worth watching this space. 

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2 hours ago, Frosty. said:

Well I don't think the models are as poor for cold as yesterday, there is a little potential in the extended Gefs 12z for a scandi high and very cold easterly airflow by or just beyond mid Dec. and for cold high over the uk too..I posted the charts a few pages back..there is also a hint of retrogression leading to a bitterly cold NEly..hoping support strengthens!:cold-emoji:

Agree Frosty. Those posting gloomily tonight are certainly seeing something different to me. The high flattens followed by mild south westerlies from a trough to our west a long way south. But no atlantic breakthrough as we see west to east energy fizzle out and high pressure attempting to rebuild north. Interesting looking ECM op at 10 days (dangerous showing a single op run I know but it demonstrates what is possible) showing a HP wedge to the north with gentle troughing to our NE

 

ECH1-240.GIF?02-0

 

My take on this would be that the strat profile doesnt support a strong greenland trop vortex and major atlantic energy despite those slightly worrying looking purples over the NW atlantic. Our first bite at the cherry failed as pacific driven amplification was insufficient to sustain the ridge. Will it be strong enough on this second bite? The chance will be greater though slower movement in the MJO than hoped for may weaken this 2nd attempt more than might have been expected 10 days ago. Therefore it may be that we need patience as the second surge may also end up being suppressed, or perhaps simply held in a mid latitude position. However the trop vortex profile will be better, so it will be a tight call. However roll forward to 7 days before Xmas and the odds look to improve, either via a retrogression of a mid lat block or a fresh surge of heights following a wax/wane cycle of heights in our locale.

Long and short of it is a few days warmer next week, then temps back to normal as we see heights try to reassert themselves. Vortex profile would support a trough to our east and so chance of mid/high lat block week beginning 12th December. Week beginning 19th December chances grow further of getting a block in the right place via supportive vortex led pattern and supportive pacific forcings.

4 days or so of milder weather does not mean the end of winter! 

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58 minutes ago, fergieweather said:

 

Yes, but 12z EC EPS are starting to lean back towards a different mode. Early days.

Hahahah I like the way that Ian makes us bite a bit more lmao.  Surely you can't leave it there Ian 

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3 hours ago, marksiwnc said:

Hahahah I like the way that Ian makes us bite a bit more lmao.  Surely you can't leave it there Ian 

Ha, he has!! Potentially some great news with the comment, I'd be surprised if today doesn't start giving us some light at the end of the tunnel, even if it's just more potential rather than blocked charts. And too be honest looking at FI on the 18z GEFS the potential looks good on several Perbs.

Edited by Ali1977

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The weekend

Looks like being very quiet and dry with temps above average and variable cloud. The one exception to this may well be the south west which could well remain cloudy with perils of light rain in the south easterly flow.

1hourprecip_d02_10.png1hourprecip_d02_18.pngtemperature_d02_28.png

The GFS  within the next ten days is essentially a continuation of the interaction between the Azores high pressure and troughs/energy emanating from the US on, at times, a very strong jet. A bit more detail.

After the quiet weekend the high pressure continues to slip SE and the main trough to west nudges east and to some extent deconstructs so that surface fronts impact the UK by late Tuesday bringing strong winds and rain to all but more particularly the north over the next couple of days.

gfs_6hr_precip_eur3_16.png

After this the Azores makes a weak attempt to once more ridge north but is overridden by the energy rushing east across the Atlantic and next weekend and the beginning of next week is looking particularly windy and wet.

gfs_uv250_natl_35.pnggfs_6hr_precip_eur3_35.png

A quick summation.

Frontal systems bringing rain and quite strong winds by Tues/Weds, then brief ridging before wet and possible very windy weather arrives by the weekend and remains certainly until the middle of the week but that I feel sure can keep. Temps will be above average in this W/SW flow. No particular argument from the anomaly regarding all of this. Still this hint at the end of the GEFS of positive anomalies to the NE

gefs_z500a_5d_nh_41.png

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Day 9, of latest EC run, of course it will not happen

 ECH1-216.GIF?03-12

edit: day 10

ECH1-240.GIF?03-12

Edited by ArHu3

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2 minutes ago, ArHu3 said:

Day 9, of latest EC run, of course it will not happen

 ECH1-216.GIF?03-12

I disagree, I believe high pressure will start building around iceland on the 11th and start buliding/drifting towards greendland therafter.

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On 12/2/2016 at 08:02, blizzard81 said:

The ecm day 10 is shockingly bad

And a day later the chart looks likes, still very much meteofiction though

ECH1-240.GIF?03-12

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Well the good news is that frost will return this weekend, especially in rural parts where minus 4 celsius is likely but nearer minus 1 to plus 2 c in towns and cities. Increasing amounts of sunshine too as we import drier air from the continent, the sunniest weather today across southern england but then more widely across the uk tomorrow into the start of next week but then it's going to become much milder, breezier / windier with rain at times as winds turn southwesterly and we draw tropical maritime air up across the uk.

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Naturally the ecm has a different interpretation to the GFS as we get towards the end of next week . Instead of the strong zonal flow it again reamplifies and is very meridional and not only that it also deconstructs the upper trough to the west  This leads to surface lows tracking up from the south west although the fronts are forced north around the HP nestling to the south. But with the airstream from this direction there is  an infusion of air with temps above average. Behind all of this the Azores once more amplifies north only to be cut down by a new surge of energy from the west. In the meantime the cold trough is swinging SE across Scandinavia.

ecm_mslp_uv850_natl_8.png

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24 minutes ago, ArHu3 said:

Day 9, of latest EC run, of course it will not happen

 ECH1-216.GIF?03-12

edit: day 10

ECH1-240.GIF?03-12

Quite a few GEFS members picking up on this rise in pressure to the north this morning, too, even by T192. Some are painfully close to splitting the vortex properly.

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7 hours ago, Catacol said:

Those posting gloomily tonight are certainly seeing something different to me. 

Agreed, it's not all doom and gloom, some parts have already had more frosts during late Nov and early Dec than the whole of last winter!:D

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Main vortex looking fragmented with potential heights building to our north. One to watch.

 

IMG_1519.PNG

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