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phil nw.

Model Output Discussions 12z 30/11/16

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8 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

I am so glad it is the gem showing that day 10 chart and not the ecm :)

True the GEM is cat litter and should be demoted. Canada has many great things going for it but its weather model isn't upto much. As for the rest of tonights outputs its one of those situations where if the jet is being overdone at the later timeframes something possibly could develop but overall its yet another frustrating evening for coldies.

PS in an effort to be more festive I've decided to drop a happy pill and return with one of my paintjobs on the ECM to show what could happen with the odd tweek or three.

 

Edited by nick sussex

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1 minute ago, Jeremy Shockey said:

If we can get the jet heading a long way South ( a week before Christmas ) it could get very interesting !

hgt300.png

Yes, deepest FI but let's hope it dosen't, could be flooding issues for quite a few areas, best if the jet is much further north, with lows tracking nearer Iceland, keeps the flooding away, do not want water in peoples houses for Xmas again

gfs-0-348.png?12

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1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

True the GEM is cat litter and should be demoted. Canada has many great things going for it but its weather model isn't upto much. As for the rest of tonights outputs its one of those situations where if the jet is being overdone at the later timeframes something possibly could develop but overall its yet another frustrating evening for coldies.

 

Hi nick, not sure what you mean there, the jet seems to be heading way south in the later time frames of the GFS and hinted at on the ECM. That's a good sign, is it not?

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7 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

True the GEM is cat litter and should be demoted. Canada has many great things going for it but its weather model isn't upto much. As for the rest of tonights outputs its one of those situations where if the jet is being overdone at the later timeframes something possibly could develop but overall its yet another frustrating evening for coldies.

PS in an effort to be more festive I've decided to drop a happy pill and return with one of my paintjobs on the ECM to show what could happen with the odd tweek or three.

 

Lol. We know the ecm day 10 will look different come the time but lets hope the little finger of heights to the east of Iceland is a trend setter :)

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35 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Surprisingly, there's very little mild on the Ecm 12z, it starts chilly and ends chilly with some average / mildish in the middle but as Gavin said, it becomes increasingly unsettled after a fine weekend and early next week..no blowtorch though!:D

Indeed, milder spell just 4 days really. At this time of year, a pretty direct hit from the SW is needed to keep it very mild for too long, so good chance the really mild stuff will end up being even shorter-lived.

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Just now, bobbydog said:

Hi nick, not sure what you mean there, the jet seems to be heading way south in the later time frames of the GFS and hinted at on the ECM. That's a good sign, is it not?

Yes if it was within T240hrs and not much later. Of course the jet heading south would be a good sign but I'd urge people to ignore the fancy set ups the GFS sticks on the end of either its op or ensembles.

If I can give a little advice to newer members, if you stick to just max T240hrs on the ops you're less likely to be put through the mill and suffer nervous exhaustion by the end of the winter.

 

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10 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Yes if it was within T240hrs and not much later. Of course the jet heading south would be a good sign but I'd urge people to ignore the fancy set ups the GFS sticks on the end of either its op or ensembles.

If I can give a little advice to newer members, if you stick to just max T240hrs on the ops you're less likely to be put through the mill and suffer nervous exhaustion by the end of the winter.

 

Oh I agree nick, it was the bit where you said that if jet was being overdone we could be looking at something better. Whereas I was suggesting that if it was right, (unreliable at that range I know) rather than overdone, then that would be the route to something better.

Anyway it's pointless us waffling on about the details of distant output! :D

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On 30/11/2016 at 16:33, Ali1977 said:

This looks good, WAA holding near Newfoundland, Low to the West of it is tilting - expect a block to form in FI especially if the WAA can link with heights at the Pole.

 

AND THERE SHE COMES!!!  

Another upgrade in GEFS in FI will be good, I think it'll happen too.

I would like to ask a general question about weather trends and models, etc. Is there any truth in any correlation between weather patterns and Astrology and even numerology, for example, do the planets affect weather patterns or has a link been made between cold winters / hot summers and numbers, such as cycles of years, say a cold winter every so many Years. I would be keen to know. thanks

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EPS must be due out soon, hopefully like the FI on the GEFS we start seeing some blocked runs appearing now. 

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This evening's ECM ens shows a southwesterly flow most of next week before swinging around to a westerly through the weekend and into the following week

ECMAVGEU12_96_2.pngECMAVGEU12_144_2.pngECMAVGEU12_192_2.pngECMAVGEU12_240_2.png

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6 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

No, I'd rather we took the output for what it is rather than leading less learned individuals astray. The moment the modelling takes on a more positive facet I'll be the first one to cheer but when I'm logging on here and looking at blatant +NAO charts with comments underneath along the lines of 'well this is how 1962 started' and 'well if HP could just be 1000 miles further west we'd be in business' and 'the Metoffice long ranger says a chance of cold so I'll take that to mean it's going to get cold' etc etc...well, you get the idea. Add to that the same tired cliches that surface every year and you get my drift.

It's not negativity or pessimism, it's realism.

I get your point, CC...But, be you pessimistic, optimistic or realistic, there are now a little more than 881/8 days of winter left. Yes, that is 881/8!:clap:

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ECM 12z raises one eyebrow very slightly at day 10 as that ridge by Iceland is about where the decaying stratospheric ridge looks to be headed around that time.

Not sure if such a direct connection is really likely to occur but it would help to dry and disrupt any troughs plus encourage any tropical-led height rises in our vicinity to reach higher latitudes than would otherwise be the case.

Just musing a possibility because there are plenty of posts already summarising the output to day 10 or 16. Speaking of which - a good summary should technically include an uncertainty clause at the end like 'but things could well turn out differently', but of course it would a bit repetitive in here if everyone did that.

For my part though, I find it more entertaining to explore ways in which the patterns might trend away from what the models show at face value - but I expect many of you had figured that out about me already! Successes are less frequent than is desirable, but when they come, the sense of triumph is well worth the wait :D.

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A lot of uncertainty that  starts in the NE USA at 120 that manifests into a lot of uncertainty in the North Atlantic by the end of the run. IMG_3811.PNGIMG_3810.PNG

nicely shown on the GIF which I love by the way now available on meteociel 

tempresult_duz3.gif

Same can be said for the N Pacific 

Edited by karlos1983

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2 hours ago, CreweCold said:

I'm really not understanding this 'nicey nicey, let's be optimistic stance' in here from some members. Blind faith comes to mind. There is absolutely nothing wrong with members expressing their concerns over what they see within the NWP and should not be made to feel like Victor Meldrew for putting their concerns out there. If anything, it's the constant upbeat in the face of adversity attitude that is starting to grate on me.

Let's look at the facts, despite having had favourable background drivers, we have somehow managed to so far escape any meaningful deep cold (uppers below -5)....these drivers now look to subside somewhat (more especially stratospherically where at one point it looked as we would see a SSW). The NWP is shocking and we're now reduced to trying to decipher the smallest of signals in the extended range of the ensembles. It isn't great at the minute, and let's not sugar coat that.

BUT it is only the 2nd December and so we have plenty of time for a change around to occur. I'm hoping we see strong signs of this sooner rather than later.

-8c at 7am the other day my car would disagree . November in the top 3rd for cold in last 350 years (CET).

 

20161130_065958.jpeg

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1 minute ago, stewfox said:

-8c at 7am the other day my car would disagree . November in the top 3rd for cold in last 350 years (CET).

 

20161130_065958.jpeg

There is a difference between deep cold upper air (supportive of a vast array of winter weather types e.g snow) and cold surface air. What we have seen has been mostly the latter...as I'm sure you're well aware.

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Well I don't think the models are as poor for cold as yesterday, there is a little potential in the extended Gefs 12z for a scandi high and very cold easterly airflow by or just beyond mid Dec. and for cold high over the uk too..I posted the charts a few pages back..there is also a hint of retrogression leading to a bitterly cold NEly..hoping support strengthens!:cold-emoji:

Edited by Frosty.

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Pretty sure that the cluster on the spread ECM day 10 is the ridge - the spread uppers seem to match to our south. That could well lead to something unexpected  re a wedge as per singularity post above. However, the extended eps have a surge of low anomolys coming across the Atlantic at that locale same timescale. so who knows! 

In the 10/15 day timeframe, fairly consistent from the 00z with high anomoly establishing to our nw end week 2  and the high anomolys draining away from Europe - almost looks like a signature might follow where the ridge might push ne and introduce a nor'easter as the Russian trough backs sw across Europe (as the previous 46 dayer showed). Interesting to know from Matt or ian if any such indicative clusters exist at day 15. 

 

I see carbon cowboy has posted posted a tweet to illustrate -  don't tell Crewe though!

Edited by bluearmy

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1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

There is a difference between deep cold upper air (supportive of a vast array of winter weather types e.g snow) and cold surface air. What we have seen has been mostly the latter...as I'm sure you're well aware.

faux cold :sorry:

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Just now, stewfox said:

faux cold :sorry:

I'd certainly hesitate to call it faux cold, because in an absolute sense cold is cold. However with inversion or surface type cold you're always well aware that the slightest breeze can disrupt the layers of the air and mix that cold out very easily. 

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22 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

No, I'd rather we took the output for what it is rather than leading less learned individuals astray. The moment the modelling takes on a more positive facet I'll be the first one to cheer but when I'm logging on here and looking at blatant +NAO charts with comments underneath along the lines of 'well this is how 1962 started' and 'well if HP could just be 1000 miles further west we'd be in business' and 'the Metoffice long ranger says a chance of cold so I'll take that to mean it's going to get cold' etc etc...well, you get the idea. Add to that the same tired cliches that surface every year and you get my drift.

It's not negativity or pessimism, it's realism.

Like I said earlier, it works both ways. "Mild zonal for the forseeable" "raging atlantic" crop up when it's not actually the case, misleading "less learned individuals". As us more seasoned members know, whatever the models are showing, is often subject to sudden dramatic change (Not necessarily for the better as the famous 'failed easterly' proved) you can't claim that optimistic posts are "nicey nicey" and then say that pessimistic posts are "realistic". In fact, anyone is entitled to look for signs of encouragement where they do actually exist- and they do!

However, I do agree with the cliché thing though- "rinse and repeat" and "smelling the coffee" should be put in the swear filter!!! 

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