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phil nw.

Model Output Discussions 12z 30/11/16

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A mild / mushy end to the Gem 12z

GEMOPEU12_240_2.png

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26 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

I'm really not understanding this 'nicey nicey, let's be optimistic stance' in here from some members. Blind faith comes to mind. There is absolutely nothing wrong with members expressing their concerns over what they see within the NWP and should not be made to feel like Victor Meldrew for putting their concerns out there. If anything, it's the constant upbeat in the face of adversity attitude that is starting to grate on me.

Let's look at the facts, despite having had favourable background drivers, we have somehow managed to so far escape any meaningful deep cold (uppers below -5)....these drivers now look to subside somewhat (more especially stratospherically where at one point it looked as we would see a SSW). The NWP is shocking and we're now reduced to trying to decipher the smallest of signals in the extended range of the ensembles. It isn't great at the minute, and let's not sugar coat that.

BUT it is only the 2nd December and so we have plenty of time for a change around to occur. I'm hoping we see strong signs of this sooner rather than later.

For some perspective look at this EC run, it looks like many of our last runs, nothing special but in reality we got a lot of snow days 9-10:  http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?jour=5&mois=1&annee=2013&heure=0&archive=1&mode=1&ech=72&map=1&type=0

 

gfs 15 day is even better: zonal hell 

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=0&ech=204&heure=12&jour=1&mois=1&annee=2013&archive=1&carte=1

 

Edited by ArHu3

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8 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

Wow have we started one of those mini ice ages this year, where the winter will last until next winter is over?

Winter's only over when Adele takes to the stage? I hear she's a fan of the GFS?:D

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I'm looking for signs of a colder anticyclonic second half to December and I found some on the extended GEFS 12z with a few peachy very cold ones..P17:shok::cold-emoji::drunk-emoji:

P16 looks nice too!:cold:

GFSP03EU12_384_1.png

GFSP07EU12_384_1.png

GFSP09EU12_384_1.png

GFSP12EU12_384_1.png

GFSP16EU12_384_1.png

GFSP17EU12_384_1.png

GFSP17EU12_384_2.png

GFSP18EU12_384_2.png

GFSP18EU12_384_1.png

GFSP20EU12_384_1.png

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Can we steer this back on topic please guys. I know the output is pretty bad but let's keep it model-related!

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4 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Winter's only over when Adele takes to the stage? I hear she's a fan of the GFS?:D

Heh, I think we need the reverse of setting fire to the rain.... 

ECM looks again to be turning mild during the second week of December.

ECM1-120.GIF?02-0   ECM1-168.GIF?02-0

Ties in ok with the monthly models released today (JMA/CFS), both do offer something better after mid-month. The JMA redevelops low heights over the Med extending towards the Azores, the CFS creates a large block over Eastern Europe and Scandinavia. A lot of mixed signals but not all is lost for the second half of December.

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4 minutes ago, Nick L said:

 I know the output is pretty bad but let's keep it model-related!

I found some good output..in line with the MO extended outlook:D

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The JMA is the only model offering any love for the coldies going forward -

IMG_9817.PNG

S

Edited by Steve Murr

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The ECM briefly threatens a sliver of interest but the PV reforming in one ominous blob isn't a good sign. I'd say my horror rating for its output has dropped from 10/10 this morning to 8/10 this evening.

That weak high pressure near Iceland might be built on in further runs, the deep angry low to the west does look like it wants to disrupt. I've seen nothing to change my view that the only way to save this developing train wreck is for something to pop up to the ne.

 

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Surprisingly, there's very little mild on the Ecm 12z, it starts chilly and ends chilly with some average / mildish in the middle but as Gavin said, it becomes increasingly unsettled after a fine weekend and early next week..no blowtorch though!:D

Edited by Frosty.

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Both at the very end of their respective runs, but ECM and GFS showing signs of a southerly tracking jet.

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Much cooler Day 10 on the ECM as the trough moves east. After that it's all a tale but if the next Low  crosses east then heights build in the Atlantic we could be in for cold mid-December which isn't by any means out of the question going by  recent events:hi:

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22 hours ago, booferking said:

Phew anybody else feel like they have already had a full winter following the models!!!Anyway the dye seems cast regarding a more usettled spell of weather during the next ten days or so.nothing showing on the nhp regarding any blocking forming altho a slither of heighths does slightly distrupt the atlantic.Onwards and upwards anyway.btw can we drop the words trend and background signals for a while?its really grinding my gears lol.cheers sorry this is my quote not booferking !!!

Edited by swfc

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Given a choice, I much  prefer the Ecm 12z day 10 over the mushy Gem:D 

GEMOPEU12_240_2.png

ECMOPEU12_240_2.png

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1 minute ago, Frosty. said:

Given a choice, I much  prefer the Ecm 12z day 10 over the mushy Gem:D 

GEMOPEU12_240_2.png

ECMOPEU12_240_2.png

I am so glad it is the gem showing that day 10 chart and not the ecm :)

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1 minute ago, blizzard81 said:

I am so glad it is the gem showing that day 10 chart and not the ecm :)

I mean neither chart is good but the Gem is just..well, mild:D

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