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phil nw.

Model Output Discussions 12z 30/11/16

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This sure looks uninspiring doesn't it? Normal winter service resumed on Gfs 12z

hgt500-1000.png

ukmaxtemp.png

Edited by Frosty.

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2 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

This sure looks uninspiring doesn't it? Normal winter service resumed on Gfs 12z

hgt500-1000.png

ukmaxtemp.png

Only if your expecting snow and ice on the 9th December, which anyone with any sense reading this thread shouldn't be.

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3 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

This sure looks uninspiring doesn't it? Normal winter service resumed on Gfs 12z

hgt500-1000.png

ukmaxtemp.png

 

one Whole week away and you are getting worried?????

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Just now, mountain shadow said:

Only if your expecting snow and ice on the 9th December, which anyone with any sense reading this thread shouldn't be.

Well I'm certainly not expecting snow any time soon judging by today's miserable output. :-)

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16 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Just to much energy moving North East for a ridge to get into the pole -

168 is the next opportunity - again if theres enough poleward push

IMG_9806.PNG

See where the 12 goes at that time with the little system creeping east -

S

 

It has been the story all Autumn. Time after time things looked primed for ridging into Greenland or to higher latitudes and time after time shortwave development S of Greenland scuppered it.

When was the last time we managed a proper winter Greenland high? Seems like a long time ago.

Hope something changes there or this could be an extremely frustrating winter.

Given current output the only crumb of comfort is in the longer range forecasts for blocking (now just creeping past mid month) but thus far any blocking has only managed to make it into the mid latitudes and tended to be in the wrong places to draw in cold polar air.

If those long range signals are correct I would expect GFS to pick up the signal within its ensembles before start of next week.

At the moment, barring a dramatic turnaround in the mid range (either cut off Atlantic trough or undercut), it looks like Dec 14th/15th is the very earliest for blocking to start to reform so UK cold couldn't possibly come until a few days later even if everything falls into place.

 

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Nope! Tyre track warmth cross pole get mixed out with a vigorous pump up of Canadian vortex.

However' Its a small step in the right direction. ..and highlights the uncertainty. .from around mid month.

This could go anywhere. ...an interesting few days of viewing to come! 

gfsnh-0-228-2.png

Edited by tight isobar

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2 minutes ago, Mucka said:

.

When was the last time we managed a proper winter Greenland high? Seems like a long time ago.

 

 

nearly 6 years.

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2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

nearly 6 years.

True but there have been plenty of phantom greenie highs on the models in deep Fi:D

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2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

nearly 6 years.

Really? I knew it was a long time but didn't realise it was that long.

They are fairly rare (rarer than Scandi highs that's for sure) but that is an awful long stretch.

On the bright side, we are due! :D

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Just now, Mucka said:

Really? I knew it was a long time but didn't realise it was that long.

They are fairly rare (rarer than Scandi highs that's for sure) but that is an awful long stretch.

On the bright side, we are due! :D

That's a strict definition though, I'm sure someone will pull me up with some half baked retro charts but a proper one, IMO - 17th Dec 2010 - and possibly the best one ever (synoptically)

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NCPE_BC_phase_21m_small.gif

Not much progress with the tropical signal today but the bias-corrected GEFS are at least trying to get the propagation going.

In theory if that signal does win out, the models will rapidly change their tune with little prior warning.

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A mild run from GEM pretty much as expected it does though end on a cooler note

GEMOPEU12_120_2.pngGEMOPEU12_168_2.pngGEMOPEU12_216_2.pngGEMOPEU12_240_2.png

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12z ECMWF products will be delayed by approximately 3 hours. 

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Goodness me, that GFS was exciting!:snowman-emoji:

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Just now, KasimWeatherQuarnford said:

Do you know why this is?

Power failure

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Just now, KasimWeatherQuarnford said:

Do you know why this is?

They had a power outage that affected their super computers.

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If we could manage PM Zonally mid month i would take it, atleast we have some chance of white stuff from that type of setup, sick of this high to the south east just keeps persisting it ain't helping us one bit in the long run looks to be ruining are HLB we need the whole thing to reset and start again that high needs to be the first thing to go asap.

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6 minutes ago, booferking said:

sick of this high to the south east just keeps persisting it ain't helping us one bit in the long run looks to be ruining our HLB we need the whole thing to reset and start again that high needs to be the first thing to go asap.

Careful what you wish for, we could end up with a full on zonal onslaught like last winter.

Edited by Frosty.

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1 minute ago, Frosty. said:

Careful what you wish for, we could end up with a full on zonal onslaught like last winter.

Was pretty sure matt hugo said this was the spoiler earlier as it just cant retrogress maybe i picked him up wrong, anyway there hasn't been a frost here since last friday just grey skies if thats what you want fair plays but i would rather take my chances in a reset

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1 minute ago, Weather Boy said:

Frosty, mate, has someone hacked your account?  Where's the positivity we normally get??

A week or so ago, GFS was churning out some occasionally amazing output and was solid for cold just outside the reliable.  Was it right?  Erm, no.  We can only really get an idea of the likely weather 7-10 days ahead.  Beyond that, who knows.  Furthermore, if the GFS was wrong, as it clearly was, at that range, what's to stop it being wrong now?

Winter's over......well except all the winter after 7-10 December that is!!!! (Although you're right that there'll be no snow "soon").  Let's see eh?

Sorry if this post is a statement of the obvious, but basically, the models may well be wrong and really give us a notion for the coming week or so.

Old Frosty back please!! :)

I just call it as I see it and roll with the punches but I'm certainly not giving up with 12-14 weeks of winter ahead of us.:)

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2 minutes ago, Weather Boy said:

Frosty, mate, has someone hacked your account?  Where's the positivity we normally get??

A week or so ago, GFS was churning out some occasionally amazing output and was solid for cold just outside the reliable.  Was it right?  Erm, no.  We can only really get an idea of the likely weather 7-10 days ahead.  Beyond that, who knows.  Furthermore, if the GFS was wrong, as it clearly was, at that range, what's to stop it being wrong now?

Winter's over......well except all the winter after 7-10 December that is!!!! (Although you're right that there'll be no snow "soon").  Let's see eh?

Sorry if this post is a statement of the obvious, but basically, the models may well be wrong and really give us a notion for the coming week or so.

Old Frosty back please!! :)

No not old frosty please, its actually refreshing he is analysing the output we are actually seeing and not being a fantasist when it comes to snow opportunites by posting snowy set ups in GFS FI.

Sorry if his posts are not positive for you, reality is, the output is one where as we go through next week the weather is more than likely will turn significantly milder with temps in double figures widely, Can that change? Possibly but any changes will likely to be subtle and the chances of any slight easterly drift from mid-week onwards as we saw from that 1 UKMO run is all but gone now.

Still going to be interesting just how much the pacific ridge will have on our weather, the GFS kinda hints at it but not enough to influence our weather type sadly.

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