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phil nw.

Model Output Discussions 12z 30/11/16

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:gathering: i,m off up the wood shed [we do have one ] We all know gang that come next week the models could very easily be showing a good wintry set up for mid month .Welcome to winter , we need to be patient ,looking at GFS just now and its hinting at a pressure rise from the pole in to scandy just a tease though but its seeing something ,i,m sure now we will get that mild spell but beyond that all to play for ,right woodshed here i come  :drinks:cheers to you all .

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Is the met office update still showing a mainly blocked outlook for the south of the UK?

I'll have to put all my faith in that, and the fact that the vortex is still not organised anywhere in the latest runs?

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One positive this morning towards the touted mid-month game changer is the 00z EPS are still pointing to the temp turning colder mid-month.

ensemble-tt6-london.gif

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I've seen worse Ensembles 

IMG_3795.GIF

Nick beat me to it :)

Edited by karlos1983
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gfsgwo_1.png
This is about as dramatic as GEFS outlooks for GLAAM/GWO get... and that plummet down through 1/2 is what will be well wide of the mark IF the eastward propagating tropical convection signal wins out; then as I understand it, it would cut across to 4/5 with great haste having only gone a little into the negative AAM anomaly realm, if at all.

In other words, either GEFS/GFS is enormously wrong with the way the overall pattern evolves in the 12-16 day range... or us pros are :shok:

So I think the way to sum up recent concern-orientated posts with respect to the longer-range outlooks is 'there are a few more signs that it could go wrong' (not will go wrong).

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The end of GFS shows a finely balanced and reasonably optimistic (for cold lovers) picture IMO

GFSOPNH06_384_1.png

The vortex lobe over N Russia / Siberia, HP over Newfounland and Western N America Ridge look good but this is of course FI.

The trend in the ENS will of course be interesting to note.

 

 

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4 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Update from Ian

817c7687-296b-493a-829f-68a8cc89a1b8.png

Ah, so, signal downgraded recently, but still sounds like a bigger cluster than other options showing.

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So is he saying blocked pattern mid December onwards or downgraded.:)

Edited by abbie123

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2 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Update from Ian

817c7687-296b-493a-829f-68a8cc89a1b8.png

Concurs with GP's take on things and, quite surely, that of GloSea5.

Also suggests that even the Met Office can't resolve the tropical situation just yet. Standing by my suspicion (well, hope!) that better output should be with us by early next week.

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Just now, abbie123 said:

So is he saying blocked pattern mid December onwards.:)

That's preferred but low confidence at the moment

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1 minute ago, abbie123 said:

So is he saying blocked pattern mid December onwards.:)

Yes but with low confidence

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4 minutes ago, MattHugo said:

Just a quick one and further to some of the discussions from last night, but the 00Z EC ENS maintain the general lack of any substantial northern blocking out to 360hrs. There are some attempts at the re-development of higher pressure over the UK and the overal patterns look to have a meridional-esque (poor phrase I know!) look to them moving forward. However, once we have enjoyed some further frosts, dry and sunny weather in the coming days and through into early next week, then IMO the sooner we lose this blocking high pressure and almost reset/get out of this blocking pattern the better. If the high pressure was clearly more stable over the UK and/or able to retrogress and build northwards, as most who are looking for cold weather would want, then it would be of worth to 'keep it around'. However, confidence is certainly increasing for the high to decline to allow at least more northern and western areas of the UK to become more unsettled and clearly promote a general SW'ly air flow as next week progresses with +ve temp anoms developing from the middle of next week onwards.

The sooner we get rid of the high pressure, once it declines into the near Continent, then from experience the better we will be off at then essentially 'moving on' and seeing what patterns may well arrive upstream within the N Atlantic and further afield. One positive to take from the EC Clusters mind is there is little signal for 'raging zonality' with a strong tropospheric PV over Greenland, again the overal N Hem pattern within the longer range EC ENS is quite amplified and meridional which can always lead to some last minute interesting developments. The EC Monthly overnight will be very interesting indeed to see if it maintains a long standing signal now for this blocking regime through the middle and latter half of December. Still a 'make or break' situation if you ask me within the next 7 to 10 days with regards to how the last third, or so, of December will progress, but a case of enjoy the dry, cold and crisp weather when it returns to many areas over the weekend and into the weekend, but then hope that the main high pressure to the S and SE of the UK declines quickly and we can then 'move on'...

Regards to all,

Matt.

Be careful what you wish for I remember many other similar situations where people called for a high to decline and a pattern reset starting with SW's but what we got was a high located off the NW of France and constant mild southerlies. I believe somebody named that set up it began with a B I think.I know no model is showing that yet but beware, with so much flipping and flopping of the deterministic models and the changes to the long range models, plus the 60N NH profile looks to me as if anything is possible.

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Just now, KasimWeatherQuarnford said:

Dec 2015:

archives-2015-12-15-12-0.png

Dec 16:

gfs-0-126.png?6

Hmmm....I have to say the comparison with last December is closer.

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Actually looking at the NH view, can't take anything seriously when the det and control are so differently in the polar regions.

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15 minutes ago, Singularity said:

Concurs with GP's take on things and, quite surely, that of GloSea5.

Also suggests that even the Met Office can't resolve the tropical situation just yet. Standing by my suspicion (well, hope!) that better output should be with us by early next week.

This was his reply to me this morning. I'm thinking the transition to mobility and back to blocked weather is causing mayhem.  personally I think cold will come but I'm thinking around the weekend of Xmas rather than mid month.  we shall see 

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18 minutes ago, warrenb said:

Comparion with 1962  is still intresting

Rrea00119621201.gif

Recm241.gif

 

11th December

Rrea00119621211.gif

Recm2401.gif

 

Warren a lot of us really, really hope you will be right.

But the hope provided by the GEFS yesterday has evaporated today. The mean doesn't show that some of the runs have a split vortex, but it's a fair reflection of a re-energised Canadian vortex and rather less of a -NAO

gensnh-21-1-348.png

Probably an 80/20 split in favour of mild by mid-month; yesterday was more like 40/60.

On the flipside, the quick change just demonstrates how ... quickly things can change. 

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mmm  A quick look at the ensembles  and there to me isnt really alot to shout about   no signal is clearly showing.  As the tweet above by Ian shows lots of things still to be resolved.   Below is possibly best of the bunch (for cold)  the other shows us becoming more tied to Europe  literally.

gensnh-11-1-384 (1).png

gensnh-3-1-276.png

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The 850's are still shown to drop as we approach mid-month whether this drop would be enough for snow remains to be seen

gefsens850London0.pnggefsens850Aberdeen0.pnggefsens850Inverness0.pnggefsens850Manchester0.png

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The Gfs 6z looks like normal uk winter weather, average to mild zonal flat changeable with no signs of anything wintry in the pipeline..so much for background signals!:closedeyes::D 

h850t850eu.png

ukmaxtemp.png

h850t850eu (1).png

ukmaxtemp (1).png

ukmaxtemp (2).png

hgt500-1000.png

hgt500-1000 (1).png

ukmaxtemp (3).png

Edited by Frosty.
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5 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

The Gfs 6z looks like normal uk winter weather, average to mild zonal flat changeable with no signs of anything wintry in the pipeline..so much for background signals!:closedeyes::D 

Did you read GP's and Singularity's posts on Angular Momentum projections?

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