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phil nw.

Model Output Discussions 12z 30/11/16

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De bilt ens look like hitting their peak at day 10, has anyone seen the 15 day?  Feb1991 posted them yesterday but unsure where he got access?

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4 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

De bilt ens look like hitting their peak at day 10, has anyone seen the 15 day?  Feb1991 posted them yesterday but unsure where he got access?

eps_pluim_tt_06260.png

Do go cold like yesterday but even then they look to bottom out. not actually sure they are De bilt but they're somewhere in Holland.

http://www.weerplaza.nl/15daagseverwachting/?type=eps_pluim

Edited by feb1991blizzard

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The ECM ens shows milder south to southwesterly winds next week then shifting westerly at D10

ECMAVGEU00_120_2.pngECMAVGEU00_168_2.pngECMAVGEU00_216_2.pngECMAVGEU00_240_2.png

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Spread across the pole at day 10 reveals a lack of agreement as to how the split will manifest

and its rarely as simple as that gav- anomolys and spreads needed

Edited by bluearmy

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The Ecm 00z ensemble mean shows the high sinking SE into mainland Europe with lowering heights to the w / nw with the uk becoming bathed in tropical maritime air, even by day 10 the pattern looks flat with average / mild temps.:)

ECMAVGEU00_120_1.png

ECMAVGEU00_144_1.png

ECMAVGEU00_144_2.png

ECMAVGEU00_168_2.png

ECMAVGEU00_192_2.png

ECMAVGEU00_216_2.png

ECMAVGEU00_240_2.png

Edited by Frosty.

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The NAO seems to me it is still negative.

nao.sprd2.gif

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GEFS generally a little less positive about blocking to our NW by mid-month than they were yesterday, and the anomalies on the chart below are not note-worthy - nevertheless, the anomalies that are shown are where we would like them to be, and a quick look through the latter stages of the run show they are growing. It's going to be a few days before we see what comes of this.

gensnh-21-5-384.png

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10 minutes ago, pip22 said:

The NAO seems to me it is still negative.

nao.sprd2.gif

Not greatly though, NOAA CPC use height anomaly differences between Greenland and central latitudes of the N Atlantic (roughly Azores) to work out the NAO index, though other agencies prefer to use difference between Iceland and Lisbon or Gibraltar ... not that it makes a huge difference. Current analysis show height anomalies are low over the Azores compared to Greenland/Iceland and remain so out to day 9 at least ... even though mslp maybe same or even lower over Iceland in that period ... it's all about the anomaly I believe, as you'd expect height/mslp to be a lot lower over Iceland/Greeny on average.

Day 0                                                              Day 9

ecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_1.pngecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_9.png

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1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

ECM control looking good - lets hope that is leading the way.

It is also a little against the mean by sending the AO negative for the same period as well. And that period is middle of the month. 

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Just a word of caution, I don't think we should be posting premium ECMWF charts from weathebell or other subscriptions, unless they are freely available, though GFS appears to be ok. Fine to discuss them but not really show them.

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1 minute ago, Nick F said:

Just a word of caution, I don't think we should be posting premium ECMWF charts from weathebell or other subscriptions, unless they are freely available, though GFS appears to be ok. Fine to discuss them but not really show them.

Ok, feel free to remove. I didn't read the terms and conditions ;-)

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1 minute ago, jvenge said:

Ok, feel free to remove. I didn't read the terms and conditions ;-)

It may not be in Netwx forum terms and conditions - but I know Weatherbell have not been happy in the  past for people posting pay for ECMWF charts and probably ECMWF wouldn't be either.

I've hidden them, but good to discuss them anyway.

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Variations on a theme from this mornings GFS runs around day 8, deeper low to our NW and consequently more WAA towards Iceland

0z gfsnh-0-192.png   6z gfsnh-0-186.png?6

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8 minutes ago, Nick F said:

It may not be in Netwx forum terms and conditions - but I know Weatherbell have not been happy in the  past for people posting pay for ECMWF charts and probably ECMWF wouldn't be either.

I've hidden them, but good to discuss them anyway.

Fair! I'd imagine they would only care if I was posting them continuously, considering how much they change, you can't infer anything from a one off, but best not risk it.

The ECM control is against its ensembles in wanting to send the NAO and AO negative for mid month. Now, we know what is supposed to happen mid month, a connection? :-)

Well, perhaps not against its ensembles is the correct way of describing. The spread is even from strongly positive to strongly negative and the control sits in the strongly negative for each, with the mean hovering around neutral.

Edited by jvenge

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GFS FI could be going scandi here

 

NOPE

Edited by warrenb

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Nothing showing by day 12 as expected, but the NH to me still looks very weak.  If the GFS isn't picking up a signal just yet but I wouldn't be surprised if we stayed with these type charts for a few days(with the ENS toying ideas), then all of a sudden some cold block could drop in place.  Decent heights in and around the Pole though.

Edited by Ali1977

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This idea of a frosty start to December, then mild SW winds, then possibly cold again is very reminiscent of December 1962... Just saying!

Edited by LetItSnow!

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Disappointing outputs all round this morning! I think what makes it all the more frustrating is the fact the opportunity has been there for a few weeks now we just needed that but of luck with amplification. We all know it's a matter of time before the shredded vortex powers up in probably the worst location, knowing our little islands luck!

 

With background signals seemingly waning you can't help but feel a little negative this morning its understandable, however with the state of the vortex currently opportunities can arise very quickly, it's a shame we have this damn slug sinking high as its only hampering our chances.

 

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I must admit it: today's 06Z is a long way from 'good'!:D

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There's a good reason why even Decembers with a good wintry spell often struggle to deliver even a sub-2*C CET for example - when patterns are amplified it's all too easy to see an airflow from unusually far south instead of north, plus it has the potential to stick around for longer.

Typically though, as long as the patten continues to be amplified, an about-face in airflow comes along sooner or later, with temps following suit.

At the mo it feels like we've seen the models more or less resolve whether the flow turns WSW or even SW next week (now looks pretty likely it will), then go on a vague wander with no clear guiding light for them to follow. What with the confused tropical state (what we made good progress on understanding yesterday was that it was so confused. Helpful I know...) and mangled vortex, this is not surprising.

This is a good time to 'go light' on model watching and just glance at the runs from time to time in case they've finally smelled the coffee (but will it be the quality product or some nasty cheap variant?).

Edited by Singularity

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Wish the terms could be 1962 would stop popping up, we have to face facts that were in a mild cycle of winters. Not saying this one will be mild although it's starting to point that way. I'm still optimistic that we will see a cold spell this side of the new year and models change like the weather (excuse the pun) we could be looking at something completely different this time next week. 

Currently though it does favour a return of the south westerlys but al least no sign of a rain and wind onslaught. That's the silver lining and hopefully the people that we're flooded last year can enjoy a nice dry xmas this year. 

 

 

 

 

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