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phil nw.

Model Output Discussions 12z 30/11/16

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While things are a bit slow in here thought i would say how much i enjoy it in this thread and it would seem so far this year that we have more informative postings coming up to help those like myself the chance to learn and gain experience of what to look for during runs after runs etc. for what its worth my thoughts are that the models will continue to struggle for maybe the next 5 days until suddenly latching on to a pattern and then it will be full steam ahead. remember colder and drier does not mean no snow and as ever lets get the cold in before worrying about getting buried in the stuff.  keep up the fantastic work in here guys....:cold-emoji:

Edited by More Snow
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To start things off - for sanity's sake, there are no meteorological expectations that within the next 240hrs we will see blazing northerlies, easterlies, or north easterlies. Alas, the ECMWF, GEM, UKMO need not have to show these synoptics to correlate with the period of interest thereafter. Look out for trends, possible signs of amplification downstream - especially on ensemble suites (ECM, GEFS, and GEM) later on - and the overall shape/orientiation/resilience of the PV, both in the Altantic but further north around the high arctic and Alaska. These are what we should be looking for if we want a path towards the cold suggested by the pros and the LRF models. In the meantime, don't miss the wood for the trees - we have a third consecutive night of widespread -5s before winter has even begun! PS let me echo the above sentiments and say what a pleasure this thread is...most of the time. Time to get back to work...

Edited by ITSY
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According to the GEFS 6z mean it looks anticyclonic, at least for the southern half of the uk for the next 10 days or so but with the fine weather across the north gradually being eroded with more atlantic influence, towards mid Dec it becomes generally unsettled across the uk but this goes completely against the met office update.

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Edited by Frosty.
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Looks like GFS is different already at 66hrs, with energy going above and below the high.

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5 minutes ago, warrenb said:

Looks like GFS is different already at 66hrs, with energy going above and below the high.

Yes, popping over the top of the UK high and diving into the Iberian peninsula.

Colder 850s in central and eastern Europe too as early as 2 December compared to 06z.

 

 

gfs-0-66.png

Edited by Seasonality
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1 minute ago, warrenb said:

Is there a hint of the Muir negative tilt appearing again.

Certainly looks like a bit of a better shape, but whether it's enough to make any practical difference we'll need to wait and see.

6Z gfsnh-0-102.png?6   12Z gfsnh-0-96.png?12

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2 minutes ago, warrenb said:

Is there a hint of the Muir negative tilt appearing again.

Definitely a hint, lets see where it goes.

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Uh oh, GFS blowing up one  of it's super storms again

 

It seems to do this when it doesn't know what to do with a block, blow up a super storm and blast it away :yahoo:

Edited by warrenb
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With the GEFS 6z mean looking so good for mid December, there is some wintry / arctic potential.:cold-emoji:

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UKMO close to GFS, just slightly further West and better neg tilt of the ridge.

UN120-21.GIF?30-17

Different further upstream from here though.

Edited by Mucka

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Can't post pictures but at 144 the run is so far very similar to the 06z, I imagine as we push on that won't be the case.  I'm sticking my neck out and saying the Op will follow a few of the earlier GEFS charts with a nice block to our north in FI.  

 

A bit further on at 168 and the NH on the Alaskan side looking weaker with a decent Aleutian Ridge - also some better WAA into Northern Canada.

Edited by Ali1977

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1 hour ago, Frosty. said:

 

According to the GEFS 6z mean it looks anticyclonic, at least for the southern half of the uk for the next 10 days or so but with the fine weather across the north gradually being eroded with more atlantic influence, towards mid Dec it becomes generally unsettled across the uk but this goes completely against the met office update.

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Edited 1 hour ago by Frosty.

I am a furtive lurker and have limited knowledge in comparison to many on this forum but does the last chart not give potential with Azores High maybe linking with Greeny High and finally delivering a potent block and floodgates open delivering the goods?

 

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Northern hemisphere view is the blob of PV that went to Canada last run seems to be heading back to Siberia this run.

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4 minutes ago, warrenb said:

Uh oh, GFS blowing up one  of it's super storms again

 

It seems to do this when it doesn't know what to do with a block, blow up a super storm and blast it away :yahoo:

To be fair, the UKMO has it as well at t120,.

UN120-21.GIF?30-17  gfsnh-0-120.png?12

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ukmo is most certainly bit more of a build of heights bit further north still very messy most going over the top of the heights rather than under.

still lots of frost and to be honest its been really a nice change from recent years.

although still baffled by talk of greenland heights into december as all i can see is further on sinking of heights so far,

but a little tiny bit happy to see the ukmo so far showing a little bit of promise.

and we have a shallow feature to our south west this is a baby step in the right direction.

UW144-21.gif

but then 144hr ukmo shows sw flow trying to get established and heights sinking.

UW144-21 (1).gif

and gfs is a mess but perhaps a rinse and repeat is needed.

gfs-0-186.png

 

 

 

Edited by MR EXTREMES

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6 minutes ago, kag said:

 

Your quote message has disappeared but yes, there is potential for mid atlantic ridging mid dec building north  with a scandi / euro trough leading to a Northerly airflow as quite a few extended Gefs 6z show :)

Edited by Frosty.
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UN144-21.GIF?30-17

 

Very intersting, potential for some cut off heights to our North there with the Atlantic trough disrupting.

All about getting that neg tilt and the pattern backed West.

It is odd how it is not just one model flip flopping but all the models together and entire ensemble suits almost from run to run.

(GEM also vastly improved from this morning, will ECM follow suit?)

Time to sit back and relax and enjoy the dry conditions and frosts.

Edited by Mucka
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A bit of an elongated negative tilt on the low off Greenland on the UKMO...

UN144-21.GIF?30-17

More so than the more rounded one on the GFS at the same time...

gfsnh-0-144.png?12

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12 minutes ago, warrenb said:

Northern hemisphere view is the blob of PV that went to Canada last run seems to be heading back to Siberia this run.

Seems like it. Better ridging through the Bering strait into the Arctic squeezing that vortex back over to Siberia.

 

 

gfsnh-0-186.png

Edited by Seasonality

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This looks good, WAA holding near Newfoundland, Low to the West of it is tilting - expect a block to form in FI especially if the WAA can link with heights at the Pole.

 

AND THERE SHE COMES!!!  

Another upgrade in GEFS in FI will be good, I think it'll happen too.

Edited by Ali1977
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