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Posted
  • Location: Runcorn
  • Location: Runcorn

    If the current trend continues (which is for the high to go further and further south) then next weeks weather  won't be much different to what we've seen so far this winter which is of no surprise if you refused to get sucked in (admittedly it's hard not to)

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    This is wrong on so many levels...

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    Posted
  • Location: Runcorn
  • Location: Runcorn

    The models seem to be firming up on the medium term as well the longer term with pattern eventually flattening out, no uncertainty from this point onwards I would wager.

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    Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset

    Too many complications these days. Whatever do we have to do to get back to when there was too much energy to the northwest but low heights in the Med?! Oh wait...

    archives-1956-2-1-12-0.png archives-1956-2-1-12-1.png

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    Tried to post this piece of nonsense (accidentally of course!) in the MOD thread earlier...But, has someone taken the 'fantasy' out of Fantasy Island?:help:

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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
    Just now, Ed Stone said:

    Tried to post this piece of nonsense (accidentally of course!) in the MOD thread earlier...But, has someone taken the 'fantasy' out of Fantasy Island?:help:

    look at page number on model thread! longest I've seen

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    Posted
  • Location: Teston, Kent (3mls SW of Maidstone)
  • Location: Teston, Kent (3mls SW of Maidstone)
    2 hours ago, Anon90 said:

    If the current trend continues (which is for the high to go further and further south) then next weeks weather  won't be much different to what we've seen so far this winter which is of no surprise if you refused to get sucked in (admittedly it's hard not to)

    Yup while the current 48 hour "cold" snap was a little more wintry down here than cynics like me expected the models after a short hiatus and genuflection to cold  have reverted to the scenarios for the second half of January that they were expecting at the start of this week ie HP sitting too far south to provide any interest and a continuation of the dry rather uninteresting setup we've "enjoyed" so far this winter.      

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    Posted
  • Location: Preston
  • Location: Preston

    Apologies if this shouldn't be here....

    What is the shortest notice you have ever known a decent cold spell to show up in the models.   Not a snow shower or a frosty night, a proper cold spell.   Has there ever been 4, 5 or less days notice to a big freeze?   When I say notice I don't necessarily mean absolutely nobody saw it coming (although that would be great), more that it wasn't picked up by the major models.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: bingley,west yorks.81 absl
  • Location: bingley,west yorks.81 absl

    Time for a break from model watching:wallbash::fool::angry:

    My expectations have never been high for this winter (learnt how not to get carried away)but I feel we're gonna be lead up garden path rest of winter.

    Roll on deep solar minimum :D:cold:

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    Posted
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
    3 minutes ago, joggs said:

    Time for a break from model watching:wallbash::fool::angry:

    My expectations have never been high for this winter (learnt how not to get carried away)but I feel we're gonna be lead up garden path rest of winter.

    Roll on deep solar minimum :D:cold:

     

    keep watching a little while longer ;)

     

    ECH1-168.GIF?13-0

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    Posted
  • Location: Walsall Wood, Walsall, West Midlands 145m ASL
  • Location: Walsall Wood, Walsall, West Midlands 145m ASL
    4 hours ago, AWD said:

    Those wanting an easterly, wait until Feb, the latest CFS Operational has this nailed;

    cfsnh-0-978.png

    cfsnh-2-948.png

    Now that's a decent easterly, not the draft we are forecast next week.

    I'll take any carrots on offer at this stage thanks, even if they are dangling on a 6 week rod.

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    Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

    Big Joe B.  has  pointed out that the MJO is getting more robust with the ecm heading towards the GEFs so take your pick from 1 or 2 and with one or two other teleconnections also favorable a chilly U.S. on day 10.  One snag.................

    gefs_t850a_noram_41.png

    Edited by knocker
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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    8 minutes ago, knocker said:

    Big Joe B.  has  pointed out that the MJO is getting more robust with the ecm heading towards the GEFs so take your pick from 1 or 2 and with one or two other teleconnections also favorable a chilly U.S. on day 10.  One snag.................

    gefs_t850a_noram_41.png

    Is that the same 'Big Joe B' who said we'd all be in the freezer by now, Malcolm?:shok:

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    Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
    1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

    Is that the same 'Big Joe B' who said we'd all be in the freezer by now, Malcolm?:shok:

    Indeed Pete and look where that's got us :shok:

    ecm_t850a_5d_natl_11.png

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    3 minutes ago, knocker said:

    Indeed Pete and look where that's got us :shok:

    ecm_t850a_5d_natl_11.png

     

    Nowhere?

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    Every year I 'buy' the easterly or beasterly that gets the model discussion thread overheating the netweather web servers.

    Only to see the eventual downgrades that make it almost dissapear in its entireity. Im not saying anything 'wintery' to anyone from now

    on until its at T48 !!....................marginal marginal marginal............yawn same old same old

    Then again, I might just carry on ramping......ha ha lol

    Edited by mickeyb44
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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    1 minute ago, knocker said:

    Well it could be the end of winter. And just to be fair Big Joe did highlight the discrepancy himself.

    Well, in that case, we can all rest assured that Sydney's assets will see it through to Spring, intact.:D

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    Posted
  • Location: Runcorn
  • Location: Runcorn
    2 hours ago, joggs said:

    Time for a break from model watching:wallbash::fool::angry:

    My expectations have never been high for this winter (learnt how not to get carried away)but I feel we're gonna be lead up garden path rest of winter.

    Roll on deep solar minimum :D:cold:

    If you listen to Matt Hugo yes there's no point in looking at the Model output for the foreseeable, if we're lucky we might get another transitionary event before the winter's out but that's about it.

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