Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

[ribster]

15 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

The models,  especially ecm, have no shame this winter with their periodic teases at days 9 and 10. The 12z ecm run from yesterday followed by the 18z gfs run were just one step too far and most fell for it.  What a game! 

I don't think anyone fell for anything, the 12z/18z may well show a similar theme to yesterday, just a day closer. I think some are a little quick to judge. It seems some will pick holes in the output whatever it shows, unless it's 12 week snowmageddon!

[snow freak]

Basically our climate is pants.  no getting away from that.

[pegg24]

4 minutes ago, snow freak said:

Basically our climate is pants.  no getting away from that.

14c In June 14c in December lol..

[ribster]

5 minutes ago, snow freak said:

Basically our climate is pants.  no getting away from that.

Twas always thus, a small island in the middle of the ocean, as opposed to a giant continental land mass. Shouldn't come as any surprise really.

[cheese]

1 hour ago, markyo said:

Totally agree,perfect winter weather. Minus 20 is not good by anyone's standards,lowest i've ever been in was -22 and that was tough to cope with. So when i get depressed at all i just check out weather in Fairbanks Alaska where my ex partner lives,today it's -29...just gives me such a warm glow to know that 

Yeah, Fairbanks is very cold in winter - definitely don't envy them. Their river doesn't thaw until May! They are welcome to it.

[Wivenswold]

Grass is always greener. I was in the Caribbean, with its lovely tropical air but an English couple I met said they really missed the Autumn and Spring seasons. In particular harvesting berries, fire wood and nuts. My friend in Prague says he wishes it could be 10oC there at the moment. I'd been considering a trip to the Eastern Med to get a bit of milder weather, glad I didn't bother now. We moan about the lack of extreme weather here but forget that we get more variety than most other places on earth. 

[JoeShmoe]

So basically the whole of Europe is sub -5c and we are 10c+

quite funny really ....

[Matthew.]

28 minutes ago, snow freak said:

Basically our climate is pants.  no getting away from that.

In general but it does have its occasions and these are made more special when they come along.

[Spikey M]

28 minutes ago, ribster said:

Twas always thus, a small island in the middle of the ocean, as opposed to a giant continental land mass. Shouldn't come as any surprise really.

In the middle of the ocean? Our main issue is the Atlantic, but not because we're not connected to the rest of Europe. Move the country 20 miles south with Kent becoming a suburb of Calais and we'd still be in the mild bit.

 

The issue is always one of (and sometimes both) The Jet Stream or the Oceanic Conveyor. Chuck in the Azores high and generous amounts of bad luck and you get Great Britain and Ireland

[ArHu3]

3 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

Where is your location?

Netherlands, it was just a little bit but first in a long time none the less

[sundog]

While parts of europe is getting some beastly cold ,the best we can do is get scraps . Later next week we will be getting a slush puppie,the excitement of it all lol.

Edited January 7, 2017 by sundog

[cheese]

18 minutes ago, ArHu3 said:

Netherlands, it was just a little bit but first in a long time none the less

Which just proves that the UK isn't the only place in Europe that's had bad luck for snow recently. 

[blizzard81]

1 hour ago, ribster said:

I don't think anyone fell for anything, the 12z/18z may well show a similar theme to yesterday, just a day closer. I think some are a little quick to judge. It seems some will pick holes in the output whatever it shows, unless it's 12 week snowmageddon!

Not picking holes because they are not showing snowmageddon.  Picking holes in their massive inter run inconsistency. You totally missunderstood my post.  

Edited January 7, 2017 by blizzard81

[iand61]

Earth could be moved into Neptunes orbit and Lady Luck would still find a way of putting the UK in a mild sector.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 minute ago, iand61 said:

Earth could be moved into Neptunes orbit and Lady Luck would still find a way of putting the UK in a mild sector.

like this one, modeled on 06Z for Friday 13th, not looking forward to wet weather

[ribster]

32 minutes ago, Spikey M said:

In the middle of the ocean? Our main issue is the Atlantic, but not because we're not connected to the rest of Europe. Move the country 20 miles south with Kent becoming a suburb of Calais and we'd still be in the mild bit.

 

The issue is always one of (and sometimes both) The Jet Stream or the Oceanic Conveyor. Chuck in the Azores high and generous amounts of bad luck and you get Great Britain and Ireland

I think you knew the point I was making.

[Methuselah]

4 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Not picking holes because they are not showing snowmageddon.  Picking holes in their massive inter run inconsistency. You totally missunderstood my post.  

Which is, in itself, no reason to pick holes: past the time where FI commences (anywhere between 96 and 168hrs, depending on weather-type?)  the op and control runs are little more than ordinary ensemble members? You cannae make a detailed forecast based on a bunch of ensemble members with a temperature range upwards of 20C...You can say that things are too complex/chaotic to accurately predict, however...?

[stainesbloke]

32 minutes ago, cheese said:

Which just proves that the UK isn't the only place in Europe that's had bad luck for snow recently. 

Yes, NW Europe as a whole isn't good for snow and cold. Too close to the Atlantic, but sometimes we strike lucky making it all the more special/memorable. If we had say, Montreal's climate I'm sure snow and cold would quite quickly lose their appeal. That's the one good thing about our benign winter temperatures; they don't stop you from outdoor activities, unless it's chucking it down. 

[cheese]

5 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

Yes, NW Europe as a whole isn't good for snow and cold. Too close to the Atlantic, but sometimes we strike lucky making it all the more special/memorable. If we had say, Montreal's climate I'm sure snow and cold would quite quickly lose their appeal. That's the one good thing about our benign winter temperatures; they don't stop you from outdoor activities, unless it's chucking it down. 

Yeah, definitely. I bet most people on here would get bored of a Montreal winter very quickly. They don't rush to the windows and look outside at lampposts to see if it's snowing. They think 'Oh God, it's starting..' or 'Goodbye grass, see you again in April next year'.

[stainesbloke]

7 minutes ago, cheese said:

Yeah, definitely. I bet most people on here would get bored of a Montreal winter very quickly. They don't rush to the windows and look outside at lampposts to see if it's snowing. They think 'Oh God, it's starting..' or 'Goodbye grass, see you again in April next year'.

It's the fact that they can't just pop out to the shops, go for a walk, run or to the allotment, do a bit of gardening, play football  etc. Everything is done indoors or underground as it's just so cold outside. I'd feel trapped to be honest and it goes on for months. Probably sounds like heaven to most snow-starved souls on here though!

Edited January 7, 2017 by stainesbloke

[Summer Sun]

Get set folks

 

[Daniel*]

1 hour ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

like this one, modeled on 06Z for Friday 13th, not looking forward to wet weather

No follow those isobars the origin is very cold - high Arctic, all places away from the far SW could see snow on that day, I think you have the wrong idea.

 I suspect your location will do well.

Edited January 7, 2017 by Changing Skies

[Seasonality]

5 hours ago, snowblizzard said:

Yes, be very careful what you wish for.

Those are brutally cold temperatures, thousands will die from cold across Europe this week!

The old or poor folk that don't have or can't afford heating but just imagine having to sleep outside in those low temperatures.

A bit alarmist really but I understand why it appears scary if you're used to a mild country like the UK. Typing this from Warsaw and it is cold, I'll give you that. But it isn't record breaking and people are going about their daily business. 7 people have died from hypothermia in Poland from this cold snap, death is awful but that isn't that many in terms of excess death. People are used to it more here. 

*edit: You've a good point in terms of being careful what you wish for though, at least in reference to the milder parts of the UK. Transplant the conditions in Warsaw to London and you can predict what would happen... Not sure all of the keyboard "brutal cold" and "beasterly" enthusiasts would like it that much. 

Edited January 7, 2017 by Seasonality

[Seasonality]

Current source of amusement in the model thread. People who say "x won't happen coz I have watched the models for years and been on this forum for years and x model never does that or x thing never happens"  No facts or analysis to back it up just "coz I said so and I has watched teh models."

With so many meteorological geniuses on this forum I plan to write to the Met Office, ECMWF and NOAA and advise they no longer need to advertise for jobs but should recruit directly from Netweather. (NB there are some very knowledgeable folk on the forum, don't get me wrong, but I think you know what I'm getting at)

[Seasonality]

5 hours ago, cheese said:

Yup. Moscow had a high of -25C yesterday, there's nothing good about that. I like cold, but not that cold.

It's -4C and snowing in Stockholm right now. I'd rather be there!

Not at all unusual, of course.

Stockholm now is goldilocks winter weather, just right. My favourite kind, snowy and a couple of degrees below zero.