Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

[I remember Atlantic 252]

yes, feel we are looking at a mild January

[Dancerwithwings]

7 hours ago, March said:

No because I actually reach 30C more than I get days of snow on the ground! 

"Actually reach 30c" That wasn't the point I trying to make ( would you give up on ) we may get 30c+ more than we see snow on the ground over the year but giving up on seeing snow when it's not even mid winter yet is 

[Gowon]

8 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

It is, innit? Just as frustrating of watching all our summer thunderstorms reinvent themselves just the other side of the channel...

That said, I suspect we'd be less susceptible to bouts of self-harm if we payed more attention to what the anomaly charts are showing?

All it takes is for a low to drop from the NE and drag everything West.. Would the anomaly maps be able to pick that up though Pete?

[Methuselah]

Just now, D.V.R said:

All it takes is for a low to drop from the NE and drag everything West.. Would the anomaly maps be able to pick that up though Pete?

I doubt that they would, mate...But the do let us know just how close we are to Snowmageddon? Then again, I'm not at all sure that the models would pick it up a rapidly developing low, either...Make it up on one run and vanish it on the next, perhaps?

[Gowon]

4 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

I doubt that they would, mate...But the do let us know just how close we are to Snowmageddon? Then again, I'm not at all sure that the models would pick it up a rapidly developing low, either...Make it up on one run and vanish it on the next, perhaps?

That would be a nightmare there's too many emotional members on here for that!

[Methuselah]

16 minutes ago, D.V.R said:

That would be a nightmare there's too many emotional members on here for that!

And, judging by the 06Z's (I suspect) fantasy FI, your wish may be the models' command!

[Carl46Wrexham]

It's a tedious and boring winter for sure. BUT if I were given a choice between this and having to endure relentless wind and rain and having to watch people suffering abject misery on news bulletins as they are flooded out of their homes...No contest. Give me boring any day of the week.

Edited January 3, 2017 by Carl46Wrexham

[lassie23]

5 minutes ago, Carl46Wrexham said:

It's a tedious and boring winter for sure. BUT if I were given a choice between this and having to endure relentless wind and rain and having to watch people suffering abject misery on news bulletins as they are flooded out of their homes...No contest. Give me boring any day of the week.

Could have thrown in some sleet though

[Carl46Wrexham]

2 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

Could have thrown in some sleet though

Behave you

[Carl46Wrexham]

1 hour ago, D.V.R said:

Look how close we get to the deep cold, it's just so frustrating

 

This is the winter equivalent of watching a Spanish Plume in summer moving over the Low Countries delivering big storms while our hot humid weather breaks down into moderate rain.

[knocker]

Sticking strictly to meteorological glossary terminology this is known as the Sidney loop

Edited January 3, 2017 by knocker

[Rollo]

Try getting an Arctic hare Knocker,perhaps that will bring the freeze most of us want.

Edited January 3, 2017 by Rollo
incorrect spelling.

[knocker]

No,no.one mustn't pander to the masses.

[Rollo]

32 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

It is also worth remembering that today is 3rd Jan. We have only just reached 1/3rd of the way through meteorological winter.

T+384 is only 18th Jan, and don't forget some classic dates such as 6th Feb (1991) and 14th Feb (1979) are not even in the longest range model suites at the moment (barring CFS).

Plenty more to go at yet!!

Your remark whilst true brings back memories of our 3 previous virtually snow free winters where the same chestnut was rolled out time and time again, to my mind the synoptics at present are different to recent winters in that openings are occurring to be snatched away close to the event. Maybe (and I hope I am wrong) we are seeing a run of milder winters for the foreseeable.

[Snowman.]

1 minute ago, Rollo said:

Your remark whilst true brings back memories of our 3 previous virtually snow free winters where the same chestnut was rolled out time and time again, to my mind the synoptics at present are different to recent winters in that openings are occurring to be snatched away close to the event. Maybe (and I hope I am wrong) we are seeing a run of milder winters for the foreseeable.

And in all those winters there was still chances.

[Methuselah]

At least with the choice for the official 'That ECM' there was little or no competition; trying to judge this year's 'That GFS' comp, will be rather like (own) Goal of The Month!

[Rollo]

I guess I will just have to squirrel one out of the blue.

[Woollymummy]

Just remembered a funny anecdote about why severe cold can be a pain in the backside - my hubby was touring with his band in Europe in 2010 when it was super cold (-22 degrees, I seem to recall) and their tour-bus toilets froze solid, so even though they were on a supposedly la di dah, all modcons deluxe sleeper bus, they were having to stop at rancid cafés and lay-bys just to go to the loo. So for rock and roll guys everywhere, I guess a mildish winter touring season is preferable.

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

3 hours ago, knocker said:

I see the ethos of the other thread is once again being trumpeted. It runs along the lines of, if a forecast is made for the right reasons which are commensurate with current scientific understanding then goes wrong, it is ridiculed. If on the other hand one is made for all the wrong reasons and by some  fluke on rare occasions is near the money then trumpets ring out and instinct is once again hailed as the God. It wouldn't be the first time I've wondered whether this is a scientific forum.

Are you reading my mind, Malcolm?

[78/79]

16 minutes ago, Woollymummy said:

Just remembered a funny anecdote about why severe cold can be a pain in the backside - my hubby was touring with his band in Europe in 2010 when it was super cold (-22 degrees, I seem to recall) and their tour-bus toilets froze solid, so even though they were on a supposedly la di dah, all modcons deluxe sleeper bus, they were having to stop at rancid cafés and lay-bys just to go to the loo. So for rock and roll guys everywhere, I guess a mildish winter touring season is preferable.

 It's certainly not much fun trying to play Bass in finger less gloves outside in temps of  0 /-1 as I found out just before Christmas Luckily it was only a half hour set, just as well really.

Edited January 3, 2017 by 78/79

[Ben Lewis]

I'm really grateful that we are not having to endure mild Atlantic muck. Imagine bouts of Atlantic storms on top of what looks set to be another Snow less winter - So at least that is one positive to take into Mid January chasing rainbows.

I've mentioned before how I cringe at folk posting that's its only ''December'' Its only ''January'' Blah Blah Blah.... I'm convinced this is physiological excuse to keep their own sanity in tact referring to 47,91 as starting late..... Yawn Zzzzzzz

Reality is, since March2013 there has been no real snow cover Midlands South and there is nothing in the reliable to suggest this will change, other than absolute pointless D14 charts

But remember its only January...... Waaaaaa... 

 

Edited January 3, 2017 by Ben Lewis

[Woollymummy]

1 minute ago, 78/79 said:

 It's certainly not much fun trying to play Bass in finger less gloves outside in temps of  0 /-1 as I found out just before Christmas

I seriously have upped my donations to any busker this Christmas who is playing a stringed instrument, singers and their cosy pockets are fine, but I've tried busking with a fiddle sub zero and it hurts, until it is numb....

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

1 hour ago, knocker said:

Sticking strictly to meteorological glossary terminology this is known as the Sidney loop

+12 - +13C anomalies - would surface temperatures be anything like as anomalously high, I wonder?

Edited January 3, 2017 by chrisbell-nottheweatherman

[Snow Slave]

19 hours ago, lottiekent said:

You're not far from me so I feel your pain! No snow since 2012 when it snowed on my son's 5th birthday in February. He's already asked if he'll get birthday snow this year!

 

Seems that with the models at the moment it's so near yet so far (again!)

Yeah we got a decent snow fall that February, I recently went through my photos to get the date of when it last Snowed (I had convinced myself it was more than 4 years ago!) my middle child built a snow rhino and our garden have a decent blanket of about 5 inches, even got a days sledding in..

Seems like such a distant memory.

Edited January 3, 2017 by Snowstalker
Spelling

[Tonyinhampshire]

A sign that winter is over often comes in the form of 50% off antifreeze