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Model Moans, Ramps and Banter


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29 minutes ago, Hanny said:

I a bit surprised by many of the posts - the UK is of such a position that 'Snow' is not the normal and if it does then its usually for a day or so. I think a lot of people are expecting another 2010 - but that was a freak event.

Afraid if you want snow then you need to move to Scotland (where there is a slightly higher possibility of snow but is not guaranteed ) or over to Canada which snow is the norm etc.

I remember reading the met offices UK climate thing, where it says that my part of the UK has around 5-6 days of lying snow per year   <--------------  that's why it's worrying and frustrating :-(

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6 minutes ago, Dancerwithwings said:

God I wish it would just snow.....just to shut the moaners up.....moaning about downgrades in 10 days....come on,,,,, PLEASE give it a break!!!!

This is the moaning thread, if it annoys you, you need to just not come here :D

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8 minutes ago, cyclonic happiness said:

This is the moaning thread, if it annoys you, you need to just not come here :D

Who was on about the moaning thread :santa-emoji:

11 minutes ago, I Cumbria Marra I said:

more like 5/6 days

Downgrades at 10 days....A moan or two at 96h is expected but at 240h....just madness....next it'll be the CFS :rofl:

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11 minutes ago, cyclonic happiness said:

I remember reading the met offices UK climate thing, where it says that my part of the UK has around 5-6 days of lying snow per year   <--------------  that's why it's worrying and frustrating :-(

I read that on the Met Site but I did note that it states the average from1981 - 2010, so I wondering that if this included the snow 2009-2010 as this would surely raise the average. :D

 

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Massive novice here, despite following this forum for 5yrs!

Could somebody tell me why it seems to be the UKMO that has scuppered chances today and yet their latest update on their website reads really nicely?!  Mentions of magical words such as very cold/blocked/easterly/snow....!!!

Thanks!

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17 minutes ago, weathergeek said:

Massive novice here, despite following this forum for 5yrs!

Could somebody tell me why it seems to be the UKMO that has scuppered chances today and yet their latest update on their website reads really nicely?!  Mentions of magical words such as very cold/blocked/easterly/snow....!!!

Thanks!

The UKMO was a variation on a theme and only goes out to 144hrs which is probably far enough in the current situation ! It's never wise to over react to one or two model runs but try to look at the bigger picture and the ENS for the three main models GFS, ECM & UKMO. After this weekend we get a second northerly blast and then we get deep cold into mainland Europe and high pressure building strongly to our north-east and then north, advecting cold air west. Keep the faith...:D

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34 minutes ago, Purga said:

The UKMO was a variation on a theme and only goes out to 144hrs which is probably far enough in the current situation ! It's never wise to over react to one or two model runs but try to look at the bigger picture and the ENS for the three main models GFS, ECM & UKMO. After this weekend we get a second northerly blast and then we get deep cold into mainland Europe and high pressure building strongly to our north-east and then north, advecting cold air west. Keep the faith...:D

Thanks Purga! Keep the faith I shall - I already feel we've had a colder/frostier winter so far and am sure we'll see snow of some sorts! I see you're not far from me so can understand my plight, lol!

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Some rather silly outbursts over on the MOD thread - the kind of thing you look back on in 5 years and think 'Oh god did I really say that?!'

Come on people - it's only the weather. Nothing to lose sleep over unless your life is in danger - and weather in the UK is rarely dangerous. Most want snow but I mean, for goodness sake's - there's more to weather than bloody snow. Might as well remain this forum to 'NetSnow' and have done with.

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29 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Jan 2017 could become the month of the failed easterly, will need more than 2 runs on the bounce at 372, to convince me of a beast

h850t850eu.png

Totally agree,just hate seeing folk being led down the garden path by the model output and raising their expectations,certainly colder but nothing like what is showing,i would stake my house on that no problem.

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The saving grace is that the basic NH pattern is markedly different to the past 2-3 years when we had absolutely no chance of developing a Northerly or Easterly regime and even if we did there was no cold pool over W Europe.

If, as expected, very cold Arctic air drops into central Europe during the next 7-10 days then there's a chance that we might tap into it at some stage.

But, as usual in UK, it's patience that's required but I just have a feeling that we'll see a cold & possibly snowy outbreak at some point during January or February 2017.

 

Edited by snowblizzard
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I'm aware some of this may not be rational but this is the moaning thread and I need a moan

Given what the only other area at our latitude with a somewhat similar climate (the Pacific NW) has got and is going to get (more snow, well below zero maxima in Vancouver, Seattle, even Portland) There may be one hell of a moan from me if we can't get something here with the charts we've been seeing...

It really seems it's just us that suffers.

Anyway, UKMO is steadily poor at T+144/168, GFS/ECM may be better but even they struggle to bring an easterly, and by the time the GFS does I'd have forgotten the definition of FI if I took much notice.

Also given its consistency and other models moving towards it in the shorter term, why should I think that UKMO T+144/168 will be wrong?

I expect we'll get something like a UK high, That's what the ensemble means appear to support most (the latest ECM mean doesn't support an easterly and is a downgrade from last night, the high is getting squashed a bit here with heights falling to the north.
ECMAVGEU00_240_1.png
Yes, maybe there are some better clusters, but there often are, fat lot of good they've done so far.

It may look pretty on pressure anomaly charts seeing reds to the north and blues to the south but unless the actual isobars follow that pattern (or such a pattern verifies)...

It's a good outlook if you like mid latitude highs. Still, we should get some nice frosty conditions (unless we are unlucky, which has happened a lot recently. We could end up in a weatherless s### fest again while the continent freezes).

There is hope, but that's all it ever seems to be. Well, one decent frost forecast on Monday night at least.
 

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6 minutes ago, Evening thunder said:

I'm aware some of this may not be rational but this is the moaning thread and I need a moan

Given what the only other area at.............
 

Seems like many are moaning..(again) in the model output discussion thread...Feels like ive gone back 40+years..proper playground claptrap..!!

Edited by NL
exagerating..(a little)
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6 minutes ago, Evening thunder said:

I'm aware some of this may not be rational but this is the moaning thread and I need a moan

Given what the only other area at our latitude with a somewhat similar climate (the Pacific NW) has got and is going to get (more snow, well below zero maxima in Vancouver, Seattle, even Portland) There may be one hell of a moan from me if we can't get something here with the charts we've been seeing...

It really seems it's just us that suffers.

Seattle had 19 consecutive warmer than average months until now. Seattle had its first accumulating snowfall for over 3 years this month. Seattle hasn't had an ice day in January for 5 years.

December 2016 in Seattle is basically their version of December 2010 - a very cold, snowy month after years of mild winters and very little snow. They were well overdue a very cold month - the UK probably isn't because it wasn't that long ago since the last one.

Our turn will come again, but people's expectations are ridiculously high - which is odd because living in a climate like the UK you wouldn't expect them to be!

Edited by cheese
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Just seen the 06z.. .Oh look, Europe freezes while we don't and then we get stuck in a weatherless s##t fest again.

It just gets worse and worse. Finally moved to the UKMO model. the worst output doesn't verify... far worse than the worst output actually happens yet again. May as well just forecast endless reoccurring Euro-heights, no matter what the models and everything/one else says. We really do have an abomination of a climate which I used to try and defend, I need to get out of this country.

Yes, one GFS run, but given what I've seen I feel it's probably finally latched on to the correct idea... So much for my at least we should get nice frosty conditions.
 

Edited by Evening thunder
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1 minute ago, cheese said:

Seattle had 19 consecutive warmer than average months until now. Seattle had its first accumulating snowfall for over 3 years this month. 

December 2016 in Seattle is basically their version of December 2010 - a very cold, snowy month after years of mild winters and very little snow. They were well overdue a very cold month - the UK probably isn't because it wasn't that long ago since the last one.

Our turn will come again, but people's expectations are ridiculously high - which is odd because living in a climate like the UK you wouldn't expect them to be!

Well said. Since when have massive snowstorms and bitter cold been normal in UK winters? It's pretty rare, especially in the S. This winter hasn't seen much in the way of snow but I've had more frosts a third of the way through than the last 3 winters combined. 2 months of winter to go, still loads of time for some snow etc. No Atlantic conveyor belt showing which is something to be grateful for.

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12 minutes ago, NL said:

Seems like many are moaning..(again) in the model output discussion thread...Feels like ive gone back 40+years..proper playground claptrap..!!

Well, at least I'm moaning in the moaning thread instead I guess...

11 minutes ago, cheese said:

Seattle had 19 consecutive warmer than average months until now. Seattle had its first accumulating snowfall for over 3 years this month. Seattle hasn't had an ice day in January for 5 years.

December 2016 in Seattle is basically their version of December 2010 - a very cold, snowy month after years of mild winters and very little snow. They were well overdue a very cold month - the UK probably isn't because it wasn't that long ago since the last one.

Our turn will come again, but people's expectations are ridiculously high - which is odd because living in a climate like the UK you wouldn't expect them to be!

That makes it seem a bit better, but at least they have had some very good summers (although this year wasn't as good)

Oh well, looks like I may well not see my first accumulating snow for over 3 years this winter.

I'm aware this is probably OTT and the sort of thing I might look back and think wow did I go on that much of a rant, but I'm feeling particularly down atm partly due to the outlook change and need vent some frustration.
Then again I see the 06z GFS and think maybe it's not quite so OTT.

Just seems the models, and everyone including the more experienced forecasters/posters had expectations too high this year, we never seem to get no models showing cold northerlies and easterlies only for one to pop up in the shorter timeframe.. but often mild south-westerly GFS 06z charts do.

Edited by Evening thunder
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