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Posted
  • Location: Aberdeenshire 165m ASL
  • Location: Aberdeenshire 165m ASL
    16 minutes ago, pegg24 said:

    The model forum is is meltdown this morning.:) 

    Indeed, outbreaks of foaming at the mouth and tedious refrences to 1947, 1962 and 2010 being banded about. We might see world records being broken for toy throwing later on. 

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    This is wrong on so many levels...

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    Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
    14 minutes ago, cheshire snow said:

    Wonder if the forum will crash later when the evening runs get going,will be busy for the Mods later

    C.S

     

    On the other hand I fear another "Jonestown"

    One thing that never changes is the underlying, and not always underlying, hostility towards anyone who doesn't subscribe to the raison d'etre of the thread.

    Anyway I've just been down to see Sidney and he's fairly relaxed having had a quick look at the GEFS

    Sis.jpg

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    Posted
  • Location: Weston-Super-Mare, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms in the summer, frost fog & snow in winter.
  • Location: Weston-Super-Mare, North Somerset

    So some posters are saying the gfs 12z will likely be a downgrade, well so what, don't those posters realise that the 06z was so spectacular that a downgrade (depending on how much of a downgrade of course)  would still likely to be a great run if cold and snow is what your after lol

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    Posted
  • Location: Marlborough, North East Wiltshire 143M/469ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snow in the winter, warm and dry in the summer !
  • Location: Marlborough, North East Wiltshire 143M/469ft ASL

    I've still got 'Mud and Snow' tyres on my Freelander, wonder if I should finally change them for proper winter ones ??!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Brinscall, Lancashire
  • Weather Preferences: Hot summers, frosty autumns and snowy winters
  • Location: Brinscall, Lancashire
    Just now, wiltshire weather said:

    I've still got 'Mud and Snow' tyres on my Freelander, wonder if I should finally change them for proper winter ones ??!!

    Nah they will be fine, just use gears and not brakes.

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    Posted
  • Location: Norton, Stockton-on-Tees
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold in winter, warm and sunny in summer
  • Location: Norton, Stockton-on-Tees

    In all the years of model watching the 06z is the best i've seen for cold and snow prospects. In years gone by I would have got overly excited, told all my family and friends to stock up on tinned goods, and then look like a fool when it doesn't transpire. Therefore this time round I am looking at the run with a healthy dose of scepticism and the knowledge that there's a 99.9% chance that the run will be either watered down drastically, or by +384 we'll have a mild SW feed!

    My gut is telling me that we will get the N'ly around or just after New Year, followed by another 24-36 hour N'ly event around the 5th or 6th, probably with some now in the usual places.

    What we will certainly get is wails of anguish at the inevitable downgrades, proclamations of the winter being over, and posts bemoaning the fact that the UK never seem to get the breaks for extreme winter cold.

    Whatever happens it's going to be a fun ride, and there's always a chance........isn't there?

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    Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
    4 minutes ago, GrrClark said:

    What baffles me is the anthropomorphising of a what is a very complicated set of equations with a vast amount of data points.  I genuinely wonder if many of the posters do understand what numerical weather prediction actually is.

     

    Models "sniffing out something" or "latching onto an idea" are examples of this; it is really hard sums and nothing else.  Equations don't "sniff something" out, they follow a set of prescribed mathematical rules with a series of variables and give an answer.

     

    When experienced forecasters then give a very learned opinion on how those mathematical outputs can be interpreted, given a backdrop of other information and analysis, and if it differs from what someone else wants to see then it is seen as a personal attack.

     

    As for the cliches!!!  I thought footballers were the worst for hackneyed statements, but I think the model forum has them licked.

    I don't normally quote a post but it should be saved for later today perhaps?

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Exile from Argyll
  • Location: Exile from Argyll
    51 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

    For the UK this is actually stupidly cold. The country does not have the infrastructure to deal with this, and most people don't have winter tyres or proper winter driving skills so the roads would be chaos too compared to countries more accustomed to such temperatures. Be careful what you wish for. A couple of degrees below freezing and a little snow should be sufficient away from the Scottish Highlands. 

     

     

    gfs-9-360.png

    Brought this over from closed model thread for comment.

    The country has 'coped' with it before but not with the values and appendages of modern living. We will not all be able to walk to work and God forbid a child has to walk to school or maybe even throw a snowball. There might not  be electricity for battery charging and internet use .... the social media machine might temporarily cease ... what joy!

    Personally, think it would be good for a bit of old fashioned values to make a reappearance.

    Can the weather oblige with a bit of nostalgia, seeing as there are so many folk want to return to the past in other aspects of life and politics.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Marlborough, North East Wiltshire 143M/469ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snow in the winter, warm and dry in the summer !
  • Location: Marlborough, North East Wiltshire 143M/469ft ASL

    I liked this post from Chionomaniac on the old model thread about the 6Z

    >>>>>>>>

    If I could programme a snow and cold lovers run into the GFS then the FI of the 06Z would be pretty much it for a perfect scenario. Pity it's FI really.

    >>>>>>>>

    It was almost as if someone had actually programmed it to churn out the perfect scenario for cold and snow !

    Not April the 1st is it??

    Edited by wiltshire weather
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    Posted
  • Location: A cottage in the woods, Northants
  • Weather Preferences: Snow & Ice
  • Location: A cottage in the woods, Northants

    No way will these charts verify .... they never do this far out but lovely to look at and dream

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    Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

    The 6z is everything I love and hate about model watching in the UK.

    Great to see winter nirvana  and get carried away with thoughts of building snowmen, digging your car out each morning trying to get to work, watching snow falling at night etc etc & the most probable outcome of a few frosty mornings and cold rain when the charts become the here and now.

    Please please  let us  poor snow loving folk in the UK have their day for once...

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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
    34 minutes ago, jimben said:

    No way will these charts verify .... they never do this far out but lovely to look at and dream

    absolutely no way! even the experts say the 06Z is the least reliable of the 4 GFS runs, expect the 12Z to show toppler on 6-7 Jan, then back to square 1 with inversion highs, with milder air at times in north and west

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    Posted
  • Location: Bude
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme weather...heavy snow and heat waves
  • Location: Bude
    4 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

    absolutely no way! even the experts say the 06Z is the least reliable of the 4 GFS runs, expect the 12Z to show toppler on 6-7 Jan, then back to square 1 with inversion highs, with milder air at times in north and west

    Reverse psychology!! I like it

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    Posted
  • Location: A cottage in the woods, Northants
  • Weather Preferences: Snow & Ice
  • Location: A cottage in the woods, Northants
    1 minute ago, John Badrick said:

    Reverse psychology!! I like it

    Sussed me

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    Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
    1 hour ago, Gael_Force said:

    Brought this over from closed model thread for comment.

    The country has 'coped' with it before but not with the values and appendages of modern living. We will not all be able to walk to work and God forbid a child has to walk to school or maybe even throw a snowball. There might not  be electricity for battery charging and internet use .... the social media machine might temporarily cease ... what joy!

    Personally, think it would be good for a bit of old fashioned values to make a reappearance.

    Can the weather oblige with a bit of nostalgia, seeing as there are so many folk want to return to the past in other aspects of life and politics.

     

    I think that you and others who replied to my earlier post are misunderstanding me. I clearly said snow and sub zero temperatures should suffice to please uk cold fans but the 06z, a crazy outlier would be a deadly extreme for the uk. Normal for a continental climate, not for the mild maritime south of England. It would be dangerous for the vulnerable and a significant section of the general public lack the common sense to deal with such an event and would create even more problems. Thankfully the chances of it coming off are rather small.

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    Posted
  • Location: Linslade, Beds
  • Weather Preferences: Deep cold
  • Location: Linslade, Beds

    GEFS mean, GFS Parallel and GFS operation all at t-192. Now that's a trend!!!image.jpg

    image.jpg

    image.jpgimage.jpg 

    Edited by shotski
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    Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: Basically intresting weather,hot,cold,windy you name it
  • Location: sheffield
    2 minutes ago, shotski said:

    GEFS mean, GFS Parallel and GFS operation all at t-192. Now that's a trend!!!image.jpg

    image.jpg

    image.jpg 

    Need to be showing a t-96 to be really called a reliable trend I'm afraid,to many variables at such a long range as that. Just need to be patient. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
    Just now, markyo said:

    Need to be showing a t-96 to be really called a reliable trend I'm afraid,to many variables at such a long range as that. Just need to be patient. 

    Very true but in shotskis defence, speaking more broadly, the colder solutions are recurring at least.

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    Posted
  • Location: Linslade, Beds
  • Weather Preferences: Deep cold
  • Location: Linslade, Beds
    1 minute ago, markyo said:

    Need to be showing a t-96 to be really called a reliable trend I'm afraid,to many variables at such a long range as that. Just need to be patient. 

    Disagree, a trend is a trend wether out at t-300 or t-96 is it not ? 

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    Posted
  • Location: Aberdeenshire 165m ASL
  • Location: Aberdeenshire 165m ASL
    32 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

    I think that you and others who replied to my earlier post are misunderstanding me. I clearly said snow and sub zero temperatures should suffice to please uk cold fans but the 06z, a crazy outlier would be a deadly extreme for the uk. Normal for a continental climate, not for the mild maritime south of England. It would be dangerous for the vulnerable and a significant section of the general public lack the common sense to deal with such an event and would create even more problems. Thankfully the chances of it coming off are rather small.

    Perhaps it would've been better to state "06z, a crazy outlier would be deadly extreme for parts of the UK". The Highlanders are a hardy breed, some of whom enjoy a sub arctic climate, wouldn't be to bothered driving around in snow or putting up with sub -20c temperatures.......they're used to it. It wasn't that long ago we had winter 2009/10 up this part of the world, everyone coped and just got on with it.

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    Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: Basically intresting weather,hot,cold,windy you name it
  • Location: sheffield
    1 minute ago, shotski said:

    Disagree, a trend is a trend wether out at t-300 or t-96 is it not ? 

    A trend needs to be viable,the mathematical solutions become exponentially larger in the longer time frame,just more room for things to change. I was meaning a reliable trend that's all.

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    Posted
  • Location: Linslade, Beds
  • Weather Preferences: Deep cold
  • Location: Linslade, Beds
    22 minutes ago, markyo said:

    A trend needs to be viable,the mathematical solutions become exponentially larger in the longer time frame,just more room for things to change. I was meaning a reliable trend that's all.

    Is it not viable then ?

    I would also argue that no "trend" is reliable but is in fact just a trend.  

    Edited by shotski
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    Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
    8 minutes ago, Norrona2015 said:

    Perhaps it would've been better to state "06z, a crazy outlier would be deadly extreme for parts of the UK". The Highlanders are a hardy breed, some of whom enjoy a sub arctic climate, wouldn't be to bothered driving around in snow or putting up with sub -20c temperatures.......they're used to it. It wasn't that long ago we had winter 2009/10 up this part of the world, everyone coped and just got on with it.

    Please read my original post. I clearly mentioned the highlands for the very reasons you stated.

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