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5 hours ago, Djdazzle said:

Next week’s charts are not pleasant - even you couldn’t describe them as that.

Plenty of time for heat to return. I admit that the charts aren’t great but you’ve made a bold statement there.

I'll stick my neck out and stand by that. No washout but also no prolonged heat for most now,the last 3rd of Summer is certainly showing a gradual(but not linear) cool down,to be honest as i would expect after 2 months we have just had.

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Yes it's a hot one here today, unexpectedly so really. The afternoon has been quite sunny as well. The CET for the month will be very high after the first week, that's for sure. It won't take much after that to produce the warmest August since 2003.

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36 minutes ago, markyo said:

I'll stick my neck out and stand by that. No washout but also no prolonged heat for most now,the last 3rd of Summer is certainly showing a gradual(but not linear) cool down,to be honest as i would expect after 2 months we have just had.

* you hope

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1 hour ago, mushymanrob said:

wouldnt it be nice for just once, to have a really decent august?.. mind you todays not bad and we have several more days of warmth so i guess statistically this will be the best august since 03.

Good August's used to be regular as clockwork.. not sure what happened there. We really need a hot one to remind everyone just how hot August can really be. It's the king of heat - 6  out of the 10 hottest days on record in the UK occurred in August.

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It was clear to see a couple of weeks back that troughing was edging closer and closer to the UK with each attempt. 

It started affecting the extreme West, then warmed up again, then affected much of western UK, then warmed up again, then it got much further E last weekend, now its warming up again.

I suspect the next attempt might send us into autumn. 

I believe there hasn't really been a major teleconnections change, just a natural expansion of the trough the further away from the Solstice we've headed. 

However, it does look like polar heights ARE increasing for some reason. 

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9 minutes ago, cheese said:

Good August's used to be regular as clockwork.. not sure what happened there. We really need a hot one to remind everyone just how hot August can really be. It's the king of heat - 6  out of the 10 hottest days on record in the UK occurred in August.

Had a mainly decent August here in 2016. Otherwise, pretty awful for the last 15 years or more, with it being more of an autumn month. Looks like a cool down next week....but for how long? Hopefully, more warmth to come.

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3 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

Had a mainly decent August here in 2016. Otherwise, pretty awful for the last 15 years or more, with it being more of an autumn month. Looks like a cool down next week....but for how long? Hopefully, more warmth to come.

The August's of 2016 and 2017 were okay here, both sunnier than average with average temperatures. Just need a hot one.. it's been too long.

August 2017 was actually an example of a summer month that was better in the north than the south (relative to average anyway).

I also remember August 2007 being okay here - it was by far the best month of that summer after the washouts of June and July.

Edited by cheese

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1 hour ago, Scorcher said:

* you hope

We shall see,i know were i'd put my money if i was a betting man. The red for heat would not be it!😀 Once mobility has a foothold in the UK a lengthy return to a previous setup is very unlikely.

Edited by markyo
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4 minutes ago, cheese said:

The August's of 2016 and 2017 were okay here, both sunnier than average with average temperatures. Just need a hot one.. it's been too long.

August 2017 was actually an example of a summer month that was better in the north than the south (relative to average anyway).

I also remember August 2007 being okay here - it was by far the best month of that summer after the washouts of June and July.

Yes, August last year was vile down here. 2016 had some very warm and sunny days, also some less pleasant days but it was a good month, overall. This August has started beautifully, I hope it doesn’t descend into anything resembling last year. 

 

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9 minutes ago, markyo said:

We shall see,i know were i'd put my money if i was a betting man. The red for heat would not be it!😀 Once mobility has a foothold in the UK a lengthy return to a previous setup is very unlikely.

Well if markyo says so then it must be so.. all hail the wise and wonderful markyo.

For what it's worth I think a return to sustained heat is very unlikely, but like you and most others on this forum, I have little knowledge of the technical details and don't pretend otherwise. What will be will be, I suppose - but even you as a heat hater could tolerate some sunny, low 20s days for the sake of holiday-goers, surely? It's one thing to hate heat but there's no need for it to be cool, wet and cloudy when that suits very few people.

Edited by cheese
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I've noticed the temps have been downgraded a touch here for the weekend. For example, 3 runs ago the ECM had 26C's as 1pm temps for me.. now it shows 23's and 24's. 

That seems to have been a common theme this summer here, although many unsettled trends beyond about a week often didn't verify, temps have not quite been as high they had been shown 3-5 days before (and significantly higher temps were shown at 6-10 days sometimes).

To me it feels like since the unsettled weekend appeared, the modelling is often trending in the other direction to much of summer, i.e. towards the less hot and more unsettled solutions.

One day the various runs/ensembles that brought a 'proper' heatwave to central and southwestern areas will verify (even the E/NE surface winds and 18C 850's with 33-35C maxima for me that the GFS and many ensembles showed a few times). It feels like a big chance missed though with the hot air to the south and east, and how high the SST's had been before the very unsettled weekend cropped up.
It's funny really, if I hadn't seen the virtual model world it probably wouldn't feel like that lol.

I will enjoy this weekend though and surely I will beat my very low maximum of 25.6C from the last 10 Augusts.

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Please let this god awful summer be over, charts look promising from next wednesday but we've been here so many times only for heat to return after a few average days. The summer weather since early May has been almost continuous even 1976/1995 didn't start that early, this summer is truly one of a kind, hope i never see one like it again, who wants to live in a furnace. 🤦‍♀️🔥😓

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16 minutes ago, cheese said:

Well if markyo says so then it must be so.. all hail the wise and wonderful markyo.

Awfully nice of you to say so old chap,thank you so much🤤 Its about time i was appreciated on here!

Just for the record where did i say low 20c sunny,gentle breeze wasn't perfect? To me that is a perfect summers day!!! Where did i say we would get a cloud fest,wet and cool?? 

Edited by markyo
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23 minutes ago, markyo said:

We shall see,i know were i'd put my money if i was a betting man. The red for heat would not be it!😀 Once mobility has a foothold in the UK a lengthy return to a previous setup is very unlikely.

I thought that back in July 1976. It didn't happen though - the heat returned after a fortnight's break.

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Truly hideous output this evening for next week beyond Tuesday.

A case in point to remind us just how useless extended outputs are. Was it a week ago that the extended ECM ensemble / EPS were almost unanimous on a warm settled August?

Edited by Djdazzle
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3 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Truly hideous output this evening for next week beyond Tuesday.

A case in point to remind us just how useless extended outputs are. Was it a week ago that the extended ECM ensemble / EPS were almost unanimous on a warm settled August?

So no change here then 

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1 hour ago, stainesbloke said:

Had a mainly decent August here in 2016. Otherwise, pretty awful for the last 15 years or more, with it being more of an autumn month. Looks like a cool down next week....but for how long? Hopefully, more warmth to come.

 

yep, you lucky sods down there hasnt fared too badly... but up here we have..
 

1 hour ago, Eugene said:

Please let this god awful summer be over, charts look promising from next wednesday but we've been here so many times only for heat to return after a few average days. The summer weather since early May has been almost continuous even 1976/1995 didn't start that early, this summer is truly one of a kind, hope i never see one like it again, who wants to live in a furnace. 🤦‍♀️🔥😓

lol... whats up gene? dont you like the heat?.. lol.

me! i want to live in a furnace! my idea of heaven would be heat from may until august.

but these summers are supposed to be coming more frequent, so get used to it.. ill wager we dont have to wait another 23 years for the next lengthy warm spell.

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1 hour ago, Djdazzle said:

Truly hideous output this evening for next week beyond Tuesday.

A case in point to remind us just how useless extended outputs are. Was it a week ago that the extended ECM ensemble / EPS were almost unanimous on a warm settled August?

Good,because this heatwave can do one now. Still 28c and sweating my knackers off,most humid its been during this long drawn out interminable summer.And 33c tommorow,just great!!

Cant wait for the Atlantic to get its ass in gear again,with a few hot days and a thunderstorm thrown in.

Propa weather!! 

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7 minutes ago, Wimbledon88 said:

Good,because this heatwave can do one now. Still 28c and sweating my knackers off,most humid its been during this long drawn out interminable summer.And 33c tommorow,just great!!

Cant wait for the Atlantic to get its ass in gear again,with a few hot days and a thunderstorm thrown in.

Propa weather!! 

Only it may not be three hot days and a thunderstorm. Be careful what you wish for - it might be 10 wet days and - 10 more wet days . . .😵

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Met Office made a huge error, with their local forecast

currently says:

Becoming hot into next week - outlook sunday to tuesday

Erm... what?

Tourists are going to read that, and think the heatwave is coming back next week !

for my area it says 19c on tues, 17c on wed / thurs

Edited by stevofunnelcl

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21 hours ago, markyo said:

Awfully nice of you to say so old chap,thank you so much🤤 Its about time i was appreciated on here!

Just for the record where did i say low 20c sunny,gentle breeze wasn't perfect? To me that is a perfect summers day!!! Where did i say we would get a cloud fest,wet and cool?? 

That is, or was, what the model output was showing, so no idea why you would look forward to that. It's not even hot in Yorkshire.

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Every MSM forecast is now using the same words..Bearable,comfortable,relief for sleeping. Joyous words to so many who have suffered this summer. This August will not be a washout,neither will it be a blazing heat wave. Every model is showing something slightly different,this indicates a more mobile fresher setup in my view. 

So thankful the appalling heat in Spain and Portugal has little or no chance of hitting these shores. To many have really found it so hard this Summer,a gentle pleasant last 3rd to Summer would be perfect now.

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I notice this weekend has incrementally downgraded here, 1pm temps on the ECM went from 26C to 22C over 4 runs. Also the correct solution seems to have been arrived at with that plume i.e. it curves nicely around Britain but effects the entirety of nearby Europe and heads into parts of Scandinavia.. Normal service resumed then. :rolleyes:
 

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So, for probably the thousandth time, this thread is not for subtle/unsutble/funny/unfunny digs at other members. It would be a shame if we had to look at stopping people posting because of this stuff.

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39 minutes ago, Paul said:

So, for probably the thousandth time, this thread is not for subtle/unsutble/funny/unfunny digs at other members. It would be a shame if we had to look at stopping people posting because of this stuff.

Where is the thread to do that?

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