Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

[Djdazzle]

1 minute ago, DAVID SNOW said:

Complain? Who has promised you 6 weeks of  great  weather?

Nobody has. Didn’t say that.

[DAVID SNOW]

Just now, Djdazzle said:

Nobody has. Didn’t say that.

lol, you said, "If the school holidays are  ruined by crap weather, I will complain trust me"??

[Djdazzle]

Just now, DAVID SNOW said:

lol, you said, "If the school holidays are  ruined by crap weather, I will complain trust me"??

I said I’d complain yes. But didn’t say that anyone had promised 6 weeks of good weather.

[Andy Bown]

Mark my words, the weather knows when it is the school holidays and in my mind after such a wonderful period change is due. 

I work outside during them (except Christmas) and, working backwards, we have this ...

1. May half term week 2018 was extremely unsettled and sandwiched by glorious conditions. Pure luck of rain timing prevented several drenchings.

2. Easter fortnight 2018 I got rained on on 7 out of 9 work days!!

3. October half term 2017 the first day was very wet after a dry previous few weeks then stayed unsettled!

4. Summer holidays 2017 was equally unsettled then magically turned beautiful for the last week once my work was complete!

[DAVID SNOW]

2 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

I said I’d complain yes. But didn’t say that anyone had promised 6 weeks of good weather.

Who you going to complain to? hmmm.

Anyway lets see what the ECMWF  offers us tonight.

[Djdazzle]

1 minute ago, DAVID SNOW said:

Who you going to complain to? hmmm.

Anyway lets see what the ECMWF  offers us tonight.

Myself probably! But it was CreweCold who mentioned the word!

Don’t think ECM will be key tonight. If the 00z runs are unsettled then maybe something is afoot!

[draztik]

52 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

I’d suggest you read the posts by Singularity and Tamara on the mod thread just for balance.

I’ll pass. 

[Methuselah]

13 minutes ago, Andy Bown said:

Mark my words, the weather knows when it is the school holidays and in my mind after such a wonderful period change is due. 

I work outside during them (except Christmas) and, working backwards, we have this ...

1. May half term week 2018 was extremely unsettled and sandwiched by glorious conditions. Pure luck of rain timing prevented several drenchings.

2. Easter fortnight 2018 I got rained on on 7 out of 9 work days!!

3. October half term 2017 the first day was very wet after a dry previous few weeks then stayed unsettled!

4. Summer holidays 2017 was equally unsettled then magically turned beautiful for the last week once my work was complete!

Perhaps it's time that Englandshire adopted the Scottish summer holidays: very last week in June to the middle of August...you know it makes sense?

[Mokidugway]

1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

Perhaps it's time that Englandshire adopted the Scottish summer holidays: very last week in June to the middle of August...you know it makes sense?

I believe the sales of buckfast go through the roof around that time 

[Djdazzle]

2 minutes ago, draztik said:

I’ll pass. 

Probably because it might improve your understanding. . . 

But that would probably spoil your fun!

[Djdazzle]

5 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Perhaps it's time that Englandshire adopted the Scottish summer holidays: very last week in June to the middle of August...you know it makes sense?

And then the law of sod would give us a run of record breaking Augusts!

[Weather-history]

GFS 12z ensemble scorcher plumes

[Djdazzle]

It seems that ECM does not agree with the unsettled route.

[DAVID SNOW]

This is the model moans ramps and banter thread, correct ?

So if I want to ramp a model, any model, that does NOT show 'furnace' conditions then I will do so.

If some don't like this, or this type of thread, then don't look at it. Simple.

[Methuselah]

3 minutes ago, DAVID SNOW said:

This is the model moans ramps and banter thread, correct ?

So if I want to ramp a model, any model, that does NOT show 'furnace' conditions then I will do so.

If some don't like this, or this type of thread, then don't look at it. Simple.

But only so long as its predicting 2000C in the shade!

[Djdazzle]

5 minutes ago, DAVID SNOW said:

This is the model moans ramps and banter thread, correct ?

So if I want to ramp a model, any model, that does NOT show 'furnace' conditions then I will do so.

If some don't like this, or this type of thread, then don't look at it. Simple.

Nobody is stopping you. Ramp away . . .

CFS 12z +4500 was showing -22 uppers the other day . .

[DAVID SNOW]

4 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Nobody is stopping you. Ramp away . . .

CFS 12z +4500 was showing -22 uppers the other day . .

I know, thanks.

We are all equal Netweather members, not sure that concept is fully understood or respected at times, over in the MOD thread.

ECM warm to very warm but ushers in the Atlantic at day 10......Summer continues.

[mb018538]

Therein lies the problem - at day 10 again. Remember earlier in the month, and even 3 days ago when mid July was nailed on for a breakdown and rain? Well that has fizzled out into nothing again. The set up this summer is so far against the grain, any breakdown for me is going to have to be at say 3-4 days away to be certain. All we can say at the moment is early to mid next week is probably dry and warm/very warm.....after that it could slide, or as the beeb and met have discussed, could go the other way and turn on the afterburners. Who knows!

 

[Djdazzle]

I’m just really curious to see if the models back the trough south and west as some have been suggesting.

The breakdown has never been in the reliable  Day 10 charts don’t have much more chance of verifying than day 100 charts. Plume or dartboard low!

Edited July 17, 2018 by Djdazzle

[DAVID SNOW]

That's why I said summer continues...

[knocker]

The Bergen plume

[Weather-history]

GFS 0z ensemble 2 is the heatwave lover's run

 

[Interitus]

2 hours ago, knocker said:

The Bergen plume

Föhn

[knocker]

Now that's more like it......just a tad adjustment east for a nice cool plummet.

[danm]