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Posted
  • Location: Wythall, Worcestershire, 150m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Continental climate, snow winter, sunny summers
  • Location: Wythall, Worcestershire, 150m asl
    4 hours ago, cheshire snow said:

    Bah Humbug Sidney:D

    C.S

    Knocker Sidney looks a bit overweight :closedeyes:

    Not surprised he's overweight, when's the last time he's had to dig around in the snow trying to find his nuts!

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    This is wrong on so many levels...

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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    Rubbish charts once again once this weekend is over.  Most uneventful winter so far I can remember.

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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
    1 minute ago, The PIT said:

    Rubbish charts once again once this weekend is over.  Most uneventful winter so far I can remember.

    could be worse, southerly jet, wind, rain, flooding with lows crashing into N England, with temps around 7°

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    Posted
  • Location: Medlock Valley, Oldham, 103m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and/or snow in Winter and Thunderstorms any time of the year.
  • Location: Medlock Valley, Oldham, 103m asl
    42 minutes ago, Matthew Wilson said:

    Winter to me is November 24-Feb 23. The sun is too strong by this stage to prevent widespread snowcover. Just imo though and there will always be rare exception ex-Feb 1895, 1947, 86 etc but the strength of sun makes it for me.

    Depends on the dew point as well. Very cold continental air even in late Feb into March will produce lasting snow cover, there will be a slight melt in the sun but not as much as from Polar Maritime air with it's associated higher dew point. Pretty much anywhere north of Bordeaux is closer to the North Pole than the Equator. So it takes a while before the sun becomes strong here in the UK, obviously places like Penzance or the Channel Islands will have a stronger sun a bit sooner, I don't tend to burn until about mid-late April onwards, someone with ginger hair earlier than that though. The problem is it's become so rare to get a decent continental spell of cold in late Winter and early Spring (apart from 2013) that people forget that snow can last given the right synoptics.

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    Posted
  • Location: Corby 130 meters above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Corby 130 meters above sea level

    Somebody posted a chat on the model forum for 552 hrs that about sums it up. :wallbash:

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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
    Just now, pegg24 said:

    Somebody posted a chat on the model forum for 552 hrs that about sums it up. :wallbash:

    I'm sure it will happen if it's showing Atlantic air and low pressure, gales and rain

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    Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

    I find it a tad annoying that as usual many of the boys in the band in the other thread  find it convenient to redefine certain words and expressions to suit. The latest is objectivity which has now become negativity.  No NW Mars Bar for guessing the reason.

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    Got to admit met office got this winter wrong looking like I'm going to be 1st poster to say after last model runs and all signals taken into account I feel winters over from Midlands southwards lets get Spring here now had enough off this winter crud already merry Xmas all may all our Christmases be green 

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    Posted
  • Location: Somerset midway between Bath&Wells. Mendips 200m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and lots of it or warm and sunny, no mediocre dross
  • Location: Somerset midway between Bath&Wells. Mendips 200m asl
    6 hours ago, March said:

    Logically it should be the middle of winter now given that it's the peak of the astronomical conditions that cause winter to be winter. Using astronomical to start the season makes no sense, even with seasonal lag it doesn't match up. In 5 weeks spring flowers will begin, and in a couple of weeks some birds start nesting! 

    What spring flowers? Crocus and snowdrops are the first, they're winter flowering bulbs. Daffodils? Some have been bred to flower early but that doesn't make them spring flowers, nor is it a sign of warm weather making them flower early. Some of the Cherry bushes/trees may be flowering in a few weeks, some are flowering now - they're supposed to, they're also winter flowering.

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    Posted
  • Location: warwick 74m. asl
  • Weather Preferences: WHITE GOLD
  • Location: warwick 74m. asl
    9 hours ago, pegg24 said:

    Somebody posted a chat on the model forum for 552 hrs that about sums it up. :wallbash:

    It's down to 384 now!! :)

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    Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL

    Really think we have missed the boat this Winter with the weak PV failing to deliver early doors.

    The strengthening PV makes any longish term snowy cold spell (1 week plus) nigh on impossible, this doesnt rule out the odd Northerly toppler though.

    GLAAM and MJO remain unfavourable and no signs of any help there.

     

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    On 21/12/2016 at 04:13, Norrona2015 said:

    Looks like the whole northern hemisphere is going into deep freeze from next Week. America, Russia, Asia, many parts of  Europe. There is one exception and I will leave you to guess where!

    On 21/12/2016 at 04:13, Norrona2015 said:

     

    I do believe that this winter may well be the best summer we never had !

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    Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol
    1 hour ago, mountain shadow said:

    Really think we have missed the boat this Winter with the weak PV failing to deliver early doors.

    The strengthening PV makes any longish term snowy cold spell (1 week plus) nigh on impossible, this doesnt rule out the odd Northerly toppler though.

    GLAAM and MJO remain unfavourable and no signs of any help there.

     

    And to think the internet-educated hordes on here we're saying in November that the weakened PV was a prelude to a 'good' winter. Back to the scientific drawing board i guess.

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    Posted
  • Location: East Mids
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder / lightning, Freezing rain, snow, ice and blizzards!
  • Location: East Mids

    Don't post much but I do enjoy reading the various posts on here, from a neutral perspective I think so far this winter has been quite pleasant in the south and has allowed a decent amount of outdoor based activities.

    Now of course pleasant does not mean interesting and it would be nice to get at least SOME snow in the south but that seems to be slowly edging its way towards lottery winning odds year by year depending on where in the South you are located.

    Potential 13-15c on Sunday though (whilst right now its 0c and frosty)? Xmas BBQ? the temperature yo yo isn't quite so enjoyable and that's far too mild for my liking at this time of year.

    Storms are nice but replacing fence panels, roof tiles, flood damage and damage caused by uprooted trees is something I don't think much of the UK misses from last year (aware of the storm this weekend in Scotland).

    The question for me though as a relatively uneducated weather watcher is will this benign start become equalised into the new year with far more unsettled / severe weather and if so will it reach the south.

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    Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

    It has become increasingly apparent that there is a crying need for a NW glossary so that newcomers have an easy reference for the code that is specific to NW. This will avoid confusion when such as, vertical advection, .Dippers, Twirlers, Topplers, Upside Downers, Greeny Highs (which isn't what you think because they are rarely within 1000Km of Greenland) and many others that make frequent appearances.

    Edited by knocker
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    Posted
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
    22 minutes ago, knocker said:

    It has become increasingly apparent that there is a crying need for a NW glossary so that newcomers have an easy reference for the code that is specific to NW. This will avoid confusion when such as, vertical advection, .Dippers, Twirlers, Topplers, Upside Downers, Greeny Highs (which isn't what you think because they are rarely within 1000Km of Greenland) and many others that make frequent appearances.

    it is already there for many terms, though not the ones you mentioned above but it very hard or impossible to bring up on mobile

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    Posted
  • Location: High Wycombe
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Cold.
  • Location: High Wycombe

    A lot of bottom of the barrel scratching going on in the model thread. Not one to rant much, but Come Friggin On! Even the Sahara got snow the other day, and it lasted a whole 24 hours! Stop crapping on us weather gods and deliver the friggin goods!

    :wallbash:

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    Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
    42 minutes ago, Gavin Hannah said:

    A lot of bottom of the barrel scratching going on in the model thread. Not one to rant much, but Come Friggin On! Even the Sahara got snow the other day, and it lasted a whole 24 hours! Stop crapping on us weather gods and deliver the friggin goods!

    :wallbash:

    I think this persistent Euro High is going to become more and more probable over the coming years due to global warming and the moving North of the Sub Tropical High Pressure belt in response to the warmer ocean. Whilst it won't stop cold spells entirely it will make them less and less frequent.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Southend, Essex
  • Location: Near Southend, Essex

    I haven't been on in a few days but judging by the last post being 28 minutes ago in the models thread I am assuming I haven't missed a whole lot.

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    Posted
  • Location: Motherwell, Lanarkshire
  • Location: Motherwell, Lanarkshire

    I'd be interested in people's views as to how much of the apparent decline in cold winter conditions in the British Isles from about the late 80s onwards (and particularly these last few years from 2011 onwards) is down to decreasing frequency of the right synoptics, and how much is down to the same/similar synoptics being less potent than they used to be in advecting cold air to these parts?  

    In other words, would hypothetical mid-20th century chart and 21st century charts showing the same distribution of pressure in the northern hemisphere (in, for argument's sake, a pattern which typically produces cold conditions for the British Isles) produce milder/less severe results in the 21st Century because of declining polar sea ice, cold air in the northern hemisphere, and other warming factors?  I suspect this may be less of a factor than changing synoptics (more southerlies and south-westerlies) but wondered if this general area has been studied?

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    Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
    28 minutes ago, spindrift1980 said:

    I'd be interested in people's views as to how much of the apparent decline in cold winter conditions in the British Isles from about the late 80s onwards (and particularly these last few years from 2011 onwards) is down to decreasing frequency of the right synoptics, and how much is down to the same/similar synoptics being less potent than they used to be in advecting cold air to these parts?  

    In other words, would hypothetical mid-20th century chart and 21st century charts showing the same distribution of pressure in the northern hemisphere (in, for argument's sake, a pattern which typically produces cold conditions for the British Isles) produce milder/less severe results in the 21st Century because of declining polar sea ice, cold air in the northern hemisphere, and other warming factors?  I suspect this may be less of a factor than changing synoptics (more southerlies and south-westerlies) but wondered if this general area has been studied?

    I have given my answer a couple of posts above. It is a case of the frequency of the right synoptics decreasing because the world's main areas of low and high pressure are changing due to global warming.

    In our case, the Azores High is moving further North and thereby ridging into Europe more sending the jet over the top into The Norwegian Sea and vastly reducing ice coverage in that area.

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    Posted
  • Location: Marton
  • Location: Marton
    18 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

    I have given my answer a couple of posts above. It is a case of the frequency of the right synoptics decreasing because the world's main areas of low and high pressure are changing due to global warming.

    In our case, the Azores High is moving further North and thereby ridging into Europe more sending the jet over the top into The Norwegian Sea and vastly reducing ice coverage in that area.

    There is the theory but when all things considered we've recently had a number of colder winters-

    08/09

    09/10

    10/11

    12/13

    Im sure as solar minimum encroaches another 1 or 2 will come along so really i dont think much more can be expected. One thing i would say is milder winters are becoming milder maybe because of CC.

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    Posted
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
    5 minutes ago, Matthew Wilson said:

    There is the theory but when all things considered we've recently had a number of colder winters-

    08/09

    09/10

    10/11

    12/13

    Im sure as solar minimum encroaches another 1 or 2 will come along so really i dont think much more can be expected. One thing i would say is milder winters are becoming milder maybe because of CC.

    You forgot 11/12 I had never seen temperatures that low, near -25C, it set quite a few day records here in Holland 

    Edited by ArHu3
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