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Model Moans, Ramps and Banter


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1 minute ago, sparky1972 said:

this has so been over hyped, if this is the beast from the east, i cant for the wuzz from the west.

Patience, patience :D Today was always going to be the most benign day of its arrival. It's only just getting going.

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Over on TWO they had opened a thread called something like "The legendary Feb 2018 cold spell thread" to post in.

It's now been re-named as " The legendary Feb 2018 quite chilly for 3 days thread "

Pretty apt in view of the latest model outputs methinks....

:closedeyes::rofl:

Typical, if not unexpected UK weather.

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22 minutes ago, Mac_SE said:

Patience, patience :D Today was always going to be the most benign day of its arrival. It's only just getting going.

i only wish you were right, but the forecast keeps downgrading the snow risk for here, apart from a few flakes today and maybe an hour of heavier stuff at 8 in the morning we are not going to feel its bite im afraid, although im sure other areas are going to do very well.

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43 minutes ago, Tonyinhampshire said:

What am I supposed to be remembering from this one to remember. ? Snow stories will be from Europe eg, Rome has just had a dump this morning. 

Don’t despair Tony, you could well get 20/30 mins of snow on Thursday night before it turns to cold rain.

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11 minutes ago, sparky1972 said:

i only wish you were right, but the forecast keeps downgrading the snow risk for here, apart from a few flakes today and maybe an hour of heavier stuff at 8 in the morning we are not going to feel its bite im afraid, although im sure other areas are going to do very well.

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Shocked and disappointed at the huge changes in the weather after constant progression of cold weather forcasts and models, it maybe cold but its nothing on the scale it suggested and this warm breakdown at the end of the week will ruin any chance of deep snow for my area.

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Looks like cold spell end here here Friday looking at met office update 

up to 7c by Sunday

hmm though it’s going to be memorable  for the low temps wonder why the Siberian High wasn’t able to stop the low pressure moving N enough to push away the cold air so quick

normally these low pressure system fail to get far enough N and sink s again,like mid March when channel island got hit in 2013 and the blocking high regained control 

not this time then,by the looks of things

 

Disappointing end to a pretty pathetic winter here in the end ,despite the hype 

See you guys next winter I guess chasing nothing again probably:closedeyes::nonono:

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 I fancy a good moan. Not saw one flake of snow this year in South East Wales where I live and only a couple of flakes the last few winters. I seriously got hooked,line and sinkered into thinking it would be winter/spring wonderland and now have (by the looks of it) freezing rain to look forward too. Horrible/dangerous useless stuff. Oh and also I look a right plonker again warning all my colleagues/friends/family and making them all stock pile on supplies. Lol oh well, hope we have a great spring. 

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I  thought the 1060mb high pressure would of certainly lasted longer than 5 days.

To be fair with regards snow amounts it's  just an average winter for me.

Northerly winds produce heavier snow in my area.

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38 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Looks like cold spell end here here Friday looking at met office update 

up to 7c by Sunday

hmm though it’s going to be memorable  for the low temps wonder why the Siberian High wasn’t able to stop the low pressure moving N enough to push away the cold air so quick

normally these low pressure system fail to get far enough N and sink s again,like mid March when channel island got hit in 2013 and the blocking high regained control 

not this time then,by the looks of things

 

Disappointing end to a pretty pathetic winter here in the end ,despite the hype 

See you guys next winter I guess chasing nothing again probably:closedeyes::nonono:

That will be based on yesterdays data......and was correct then. Any changes on tonights 12z runs will not materialise until tomorrow.

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Trouble is the forecast models where there, in front of us, telling us how bad it could be. As fun as it is chasing and forecasting these models I cant help but sometimes think of it as nothing more than glorified guessing,  forecasting is pretty darn good 3 - 5 days ahead  but anything longer and it just can't be done especially on an island that has so much weather influences from around us.

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