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Posted
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
  • Weather Preferences: Gales, T-storms, Heavy Rain, Heat, Cold - Love it all.
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
    Just now, EML Network said:

    Dont need to...

    Well, you do..

    Back in December, there were a couple of snow events that occurred, particularly across central parts of England, and Wales. The GFS was continually showing areas in the North to be under this event. As it progressed, the GFS started following other models in bringing the system further South - right up to 12 hours before the event.

    I'm not saying the GFS op isn't sniffing something out. But, to say it has out-performed every other model this Winter is wrong.

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    This is wrong on so many levels...

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    Posted
  • Location: Exeter, Devon, UK. alt 10m asl
  • Location: Exeter, Devon, UK. alt 10m asl
    3 minutes ago, EML Network said:

    Dont need to...if youve followed the charts over the past few months youll know that the ECM has consistently shown different output to the GfS only to come kicking and screaming inline with the GFS.

     

    Indeed the ECM was having none of the cold spell for a while when the GfS sniffed it out several days earlier.

     

    The ECM is already in its 0z run falling more in line with the GFS solution regarding the LP from the SW.

     

    Its 0z run yesterday had it going through France and already its modelled several 100 miles further north.

    Id be over the moon if the GFS backs down, but if anything its doing the opposite and.bringing it in faster

    I'd always err towards a mid ground between two differing model outputs and i think that has been the case this winter. 

    In this instance, GFS indicating how a breakdown would take place but maybe its early in its timings.  Depth of the low will impact on its track so too early to call to be honest but both GFS and ECM are similar (especially hemispheric-ally) but ECM just keeps the UK in the cold, the GFS falls the other way.

    On the plus side - i guess, if it does go wrong then there is a chance we end up in southerlys which in March is pleasent rather than unseasonably annoying when it happens Dec/Jan.

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    Posted
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Forest Hall)
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Forest Hall)
    52 minutes ago, EML Network said:

    Dont need to...if youve followed the charts over the past few months youll know that the ECM has consistently shown different output to the GfS only to come kicking and screaming inline with the GFS.

     

    Indeed the ECM was having none of the cold spell for a while when the GfS sniffed it out several days earlier.

     

    The ECM is already in its 0z run falling more in line with the GFS solution regarding the LP from the SW.

     

    Its 0z run yesterday had it going through France and already its modelled several 100 miles further north.

    Id be over the moon if the GFS backs down, but if anything its doing the opposite and.bringing it in faster

    GFS was showing a transition to Northerly flow a few days back which it's not now.  ECM did not follow that.  I did not think that would happen as it was too far out and neither do I think the L.P. will make it as far north as the GFS is showing.  

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    Posted
  • Location: Ireland - East Coast
  • Location: Ireland - East Coast
    9 minutes ago, Jemma Croton said:

    Ohhhh... so that’s how showers work ??

    20710C93-6B16-4C5C-B4D9-90D7A39F5970.png

    Thanks for that. I knew it was something to do with.a hose, having read it several times I’m certain now.

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    Posted
  • Location: Torrington, Devon
  • Weather Preferences: storms - of the severe kind
  • Location: Torrington, Devon

    Think i'll head up to the north-east, and have snow-gasm there, then head back down at the end of the week, to perhaps the biggest Blizzard the south-west has had since 1979 !!

    Ohhh, i can dream !!

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    Posted
  • Location: Walsall Wood, Walsall, West Midlands 145m ASL
  • Location: Walsall Wood, Walsall, West Midlands 145m ASL

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Ygz0iw2fD_o

    Well if anybody does get hit by blizzard conditions next week here's a great soundtrack to one from the 1994 SNES game 'Donkey Kong Country' called 'Northern Hemispheres' it starts off slow in anticipation of the coming snowstorm and then really takes off when it hits. Very atmospheric like a lot of the tracks in that series of games.

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    Posted
  • Location: Between Sidmouth and Exeter
  • Location: Between Sidmouth and Exeter

    A few thoughts.

    ECM 00z was a massive BANK
    5a91ade2324c2_yr.noexeter2.thumb.png.1b08a7f30cc1d46e0a9c36a86733ad71.png

    Would have been perfect, the low gives significant snow and backs off allowing it to stay very cold over snow fields. So probably a 'historic' cold spell.

    Problem is the move to get the low too far north on all models now. Even if we did stay in the cold air, it won't be that cold without snow cover.

    The wind also stops minima getting lower than -4C on the forecasts for me. Notable to get that low with wind, but we get that low nearly every winter, and had -14.0C in December 2010. Exeter Aiport had -16.5C.

    Wind makes a huge difference for low levels/valleys around here. In contrast, higher hills especially the Moors may experience their coldest temps for a while...

    However, another disappointing thing is -15C uppers look not to arrive so much (or be v brief/go north of me), Where are they on the ECM? Scotland also seems to get colder uppers despite getting a longer sea track, and they do best from northerlies and have done much better this winter.

    So a notable cold snap spell, but a historic spell it is unlikely to be (for here).
     

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    Posted
  • Location: Torrington, Devon
  • Weather Preferences: storms - of the severe kind
  • Location: Torrington, Devon

    The mod thread *ahhh facepalm*

    Still got some days of interesting to weather to come, even if by the end of next weekend, any snow get's confined to the Scottish mountains

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: snow, heat, thunderstorms
  • Location: Leeds

    So at the moment we are looking at what, 4 ice days, with snow for many, in late February and early March, and people are calling the ECM run a disaster or such nonsense simply because it doesn't last for another week? 

    You can tell that people have become spoilt by the exceptional output. Quite pathetic really. Everyone on here would have sold their granny for this a month ago. 

    Edited by cheese
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    Posted
  • Location: Between Sidmouth and Exeter
  • Location: Between Sidmouth and Exeter

    Well because there might be 0 ice days and no notable minima here, and uncertain if/how much snow will filter through to my area. 

    Ok yes a notable few days, but I'll have to work in a cold minimally heated building next week (proper cold starts Monday), miss much of the interest and have it all washed away by the weekend when I could get out and enjoy it. So I'm also jaffa cakesed off with the timing.

    I understand your point but it has annoyed me a bit in part due to my location. But then if I was too annoyed I'd have broken my own rule that FI is FI no matter how the models appear to agree. Oh well, guess I can't help getting sucked in a bit too.

     

    It could backtrack, but I'm not expecting it to correct south enough for me. When the high res operationals all latch on to something at day 5/6 it rarely seems to get undone.

    Edited by Evening thunder
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    Posted
  • Location: Chichester West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snow
  • Location: Chichester West Sussex

    do a beast from the east followed by the wimp from the west ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Derry, NW Ireland, 20 to 30m ASL
  • Location: Derry, NW Ireland, 20 to 30m ASL

    Related image

     

    Sometimes you want to ask people on the MAD thread to sling their hook.. Great charts with ice days for many and snow for many that say they are starved this year, yet some of the same snow starved people are arguing about a breakdown after a week of cold and possibly record breaking so.

     

    No wonder we don't get cold, we don't deserve it.

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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

    before the christmas pudding though, but hope it ends up something like this! mild air was forecast to move north, but refused to, still remember this event now!

    but tough ask in 2018?

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam
    9 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

    before the christmas pudding though, but hope it ends up something like this! mild air was forecast to move north, but refused to, still remember this event now!

    but tough ask in 2018?

     

    It happened at the start of February 2010

    gfs-2010020100-0-192.png

    What happened

    gfs-2010020900-0-6.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Severe storms and heavy snow
  • Location: Hull

    Wouldn't be netweather without the drama would it?

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    Posted
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire SACRA MEMBER 16/122
  • Weather Preferences: snowy winters,warm summers and Storms
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire SACRA MEMBER 16/122

    Week ahead forecast 2155 cold weather to continue into next weekend with possibility of

    More snow even in the south suggests to me the models could flip again in the next day or two.

    C.S

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    Posted
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
  • Weather Preferences: Gales, T-storms, Heavy Rain, Heat, Cold - Love it all.
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
    2 minutes ago, Snowjokes92 said:

    What does FWIW mean? 

    In the case of the model thread, "Forgot where I was"

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    Posted
  • Location: Hanley, Stoke-on-trent
  • Location: Hanley, Stoke-on-trent
    2 minutes ago, AtlanticFlamethrower said:

    ECM and GFS both agree on an early Spring. #BarbecueFriday

     

     

    Yes, it's not really about how far North or South the low is, it's about how it won't move East. Was always a risk with an Easterly that you start to draw air from Southern Europe instead of North.

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    Posted
  • Location: South Essex
  • Location: South Essex
    36 minutes ago, davehsug said:

    Yes, it's not really about how far North or South the low is, it's about how it won't move East. Was always a risk with an Easterly that you start to draw air from Southern Europe instead of North.

    Exactly the point. If it gets east of the UK its snow all the way even if it gets well up the north sea. If it sits to our south or SW the end is inevitable. Very fine margins as demonstrated by the GEFS tonight!

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