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Polar Maritime

Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

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28 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

how so?

By keeping the upper flow north easterly

ecm_t850_uv_eur_8.thumb.png.0d4a66fa505c74c9b569f7957d302adc.png

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2 minutes ago, knocker said:

By keeping the upper flow north easterly

ecm_t850_uv_eur_8.thumb.png.0d4a66fa505c74c9b569f7957d302adc.png

Hmmm I can't really see how that chart has tried to steer that (nasty) CAA away..... Looks pretty cold to me.

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1 hour ago, DOdo said:

I wonder what the chances are  of them getting it all wrong and suddenly Friday's output showing spring time instead :rofl:

be wary of ens no7 on GFS, what we don't want

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=192&code=7&mode=0&carte=0

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7 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Hmmm I can't really see how that chart has tried to steer that (nasty) CAA away..... Looks pretty cold to me.

I'm reading the wind flow lines (admittedly as an amateur) as the source of air for the UK to be coming from the area just off the coast of scandi which is a much milder than the frigid air over the baltic and indeed milder than that already over the uk at the time.  The frigid air to the East would i assume end up over benelux/france based on the flow lines?

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Guy on Twitter  wants the army in  and a COBRA Meeting ASAP   he is having a right go at me.  :D

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2 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Guy on Twitter  wants the army in  and a COBRA Meeting ASAP   he is having a right go at me.  :D

It’s a bloody disc race!!!!!

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well at least if does all go t^ts up , metoffice will have some explaining to do

 

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8 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Guy on Twitter  wants the army in  and a COBRA Meeting ASAP   he is having a right go at me.  :D

I understand that the armed forces cut back on arctic warfare training last year so will obviously be unable to cope with what is meant to be hitting us next week anyway.  Probably best not to tell the chap on twitter that. :D

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Just now, swebby said:

I understand that the armed forces cut back on arctic warfare training last year so will obviously be unable to cope with what is meant to be hitting us next week anyway.  Probably best not to tell the chap on twitter that. :D

LOL  ive got myself into one here   he wants shelters put up for the Homeless  Expects 10 ft drifts  and the vortex to be over us till April   Apparently the Government are aware and are making plans.  

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17 minutes ago, swebby said:

I'm reading the wind flow lines (admittedly as an amateur) as the source of air for the UK to be coming from the area just off the coast of scandi which is a much milder than the frigid air over the baltic and indeed milder than that already over the uk at the time.  The frigid air to the East would i assume end up over benelux/france based on the flow lines?

I can see that but there is still -10 air over the UK and the source of the air is simply taking a slightly longer sea trek.... great for showers. 

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1 minute ago, weirpig said:

LOL  ive got myself into one here   he wants shelters put up for the Homeless  Expects 10 ft drifts  and the vortex to be over us till April   Apparently the Government are aware and are making plans.  

Yeah, plans to spray us with chemtrails! 😂

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1 minute ago, weirpig said:

LOL  ive got myself into one here   he wants shelters put up for the Homeless  Expects 10 ft drifts  and the vortex to be over us till April   Apparently the Government are aware and are making plans.  

I'm sure he blames the Remoaners!! Bloody EU sending their cold over here. He read that in the Express too.

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7 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

I can see that but there is still -10 air over the UK and the source of the air is simply taking a slightly longer sea trek.... great for showers. 

Probably will be and i suspect more moisture from that source to boot, but the splodge as @knocker so eloquently called it ends up in france if i'm reading that chart correctly?

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Ive got a terrible feeling about the 12z gfs right now!!i feel things are gona downgrade tonight!!if gfs gives a good run then that will rest my nerves!!that delay in cold is bugging me now!!good god dont put us through any more heartache gfs😥😥

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12 minutes ago, weirpig said:

LOL  ive got myself into one here   he wants shelters put up for the Homeless  Expects 10 ft drifts  and the vortex to be over us till April   Apparently the Government are aware and are making plans.  

Eeek, i'd sneak away quickly if i was you. 

Bonkers or not, he does have a valid point about the homeless.  Sleeping rough in temps failing to get above freezing for just a couple of days is a serious risk.

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11 minutes ago, weirpig said:

LOL  ive got myself into one here   he wants shelters put up for the Homeless  Expects 10 ft drifts  and the vortex to be over us till April   Apparently the Government are aware and are making plans.  

Might get 10 foot drifts and poor visibility, but that will likely be where the breeze whips up all the salt into drifts at the side of the road. 

The cold is pretty much nailed on but the jury is still out on 'deep' snow. ECM would deliver but the 06 GFS was a fair bit drier with higher pressure. 

 

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1 minute ago, swebby said:

Eeek, i'd sneak away quickly if i was you. 

Bonkers or not, he does have a valid point about the homeless.  Sleeping rough in temps failing to get above freezing for just a couple of days is a serious risk.

Yes he does  But alas the government will not do anything about that.   My opinion is though that people are a lot better prepared now than in anytime in history.  I mean imagine the cold years ago with no insulation  Central Heating etc  must have been raw 

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31 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Guy on Twitter  wants the army in  and a COBRA Meeting ASAP   he is having a right go at me.  :D

Sounds like he is barking, or a troll. Post screen caps of the convo for our amusement please :)

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17 minutes ago, Number 23 said:

I'm sure he blames the Remoaners!! Bloody EU sending their cold over here. He read that in the Express too.

Hello fellow Chelmsfordian.

Don't whatever you do do not get @weirp started on Brexit.:pardon:

By the way Weirpig Jena sends her regards and we both trust you are well. :)The forthcoming deep freeze will be quite an experience for her as she will not have witnessed anything like it before.

Kind Regards

Dave

Edited by claret047

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6 minutes ago, shaky said:

Ive got a terrible feeling about the 12z gfs right now!!i feel things are gona downgrade tonight!!if gfs gives a good run then that will rest my nerves!!that delay in cold is bugging me now!!good god dont put us through any more heartache gfs😥😥

 

DMT-59.jpg

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1 minute ago, Seasonality said:

Sounds like he is barking, or a troll. Post screen caps of the convo for our amusement please :)

here is one

We're not talking a foot of snow here, we're talking 10ft of snow across much of mainland Britain, with drifting; and the polar vortex remaining into late April. This is a once in a lifetime event, COBRA needs convened asap, and grit needs stockpiling; homeless shelters set up

and another 

he wind-chill factor needs taking into account. It will feel Siberian and there's potential for even colder weather. Then there's snow. Any showers that fall will be snow and accumulating quickly. The country should take this seriously. COBRA should meet now, gov nd to prepare.

 

Dont get me wrong  there is the potential for some very cold weather   but  i think this is a tad hyperbole.  central europe  gets this quite often  and america earlier this winter had bone numbing temps.  guess we will have to see.

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8 minutes ago, shaky said:

Ive got a terrible feeling about the 12z gfs right now!!i feel things are gona downgrade tonight!!if gfs gives a good run then that will rest my nerves!!that delay in cold is bugging me now!!good god dont put us through any more heartache gfs😥😥

Pah, it's barely a delay! Don't gloss over the fact it evolves into another stunning run ending with a massive deep cold pool over most of Europe and reverse zonality with the jet shut down. :D

 

That being said, I am also nervous for the 12zs, both GFS and ECM. I don't want that little low over Finland to appear on the next ECM, for example. Worst case scenario now is for the cold to slip south (unlikely but not impossible)

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6 minutes ago, weirpig said:

here is one

We're not talking a foot of snow here, we're talking 10ft of snow across much of mainland Britain, with drifting; and the polar vortex remaining into late April. This is a once in a lifetime event, COBRA needs convened asap, and grit needs stockpiling; homeless shelters set up

and another 

he wind-chill factor needs taking into account. It will feel Siberian and there's potential for even colder weather. Then there's snow. Any showers that fall will be snow and accumulating quickly. The country should take this seriously. COBRA should meet now, gov nd to prepare.

 

Dont get me wrong  there is the potential for some very cold weather   but  i think this is a tad hyperbole.  central europe  gets this quite often  and america earlier this winter had bone numbing temps.  guess we will have to see.

Priceless, 10ft! Good point re: central Europe by the way, I've got some experience of Warsaw and the surrounding areas of Eastern Poland and the weather being forecast for the UK currently wouldn't even raise an eyebrow there. Happens most winters there at some point and even the cold over central europe next week isn't currently forecast to give anything record breaking just yet.

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