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Polar Maritime

Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

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I'll eat my hat if what actually happens is anything like what the computer models are showing. Been here many times, this place goes into meltdown and zip actually happens. Hope I am wrong but until the event actually starts feet firmly on the ground. The forecasts back on December 8th were incorrect, forecasting heavy snow when we had none and vice versa. Comparing these fantasy charts to the likes 0f 47, 63 , 87 etc is just bonkers. Hope I'm wrong and will need to get the shovel out again next week but somehow doubt it......

Edited by drgl

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Okay then time to put the "misery pants" hat on. 

 

These charts are incredibly but is there not a risk that they've been over-programmed to display cold weather on the back of the SSW due to the link between the two and that rather than being this brilliant because that's what we're getting; they are this brilliant because the large SSW has amplified the over-programming compared to previous minor SSW's?

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4 minutes ago, Deep Snow please said:

Okay then time to put the "misery pants" hat on. 

 

These charts are incredibly but is there not a risk that they've been over-programmed to display cold weather on the back of the SSW due to the link between the two and that rather than being this brilliant because that's what we're getting; they are this brilliant because the large SSW has amplified the over-programming compared to previous minor SSW's?

Short Answer.... No

Long answer.... Hell No.

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22 minutes ago, drgl said:

I'll eat my hat if what actually happens is anything like what the computer models are showing. Been here many times, this place goes into meltdown and zip actually happens. Hope I am wrong but until the event actually starts feet firmly on the ground. The forecasts back on December 8th were incorrect, forecasting heavy snow when we had none and vice versa. Comparing these fantasy charts to the likes 0f 47, 63 , 87 etc is just bonkers. Hope I'm wrong and will need to get the shovel out again next week but somehow doubt it......

Never seen charts like this..... (2010 a side) 

 

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think this GFS run, best I've ever seen! feel though it will turn milder from the north around Fri 2nd, GFS nearly did, but a thing to watch

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I think now I am looking for upgrades in timing , the uppers repeatedly shown are pretty much as low as can be theoretically  possible. If the models are still struggling they might be underestimating the propagation of the wind reversal - so would like to see the initial surface cold and caa coming quicker than modelled and get a nudge to get here by Friday. Here’s hoping , interestingly here in Surrey surface winds keep trying to veer NE and it’s seems to be drying up from the east. 

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55 minutes ago, Deep Snow please said:

Okay then time to put the "misery pants" hat on. 

 

These charts are incredibly but is there not a risk that they've been over-programmed to display cold weather on the back of the SSW due to the link between the two and that rather than being this brilliant because that's what we're getting; they are this brilliant because the large SSW has amplified the over-programming compared to previous minor SSW's?

There is NO programming. Every run on each model is fed the data at 00h, surface, upper air , sea etc etc, then simply run to its end date/time, based on the Laws of Dynamics and heat exchanges ; that is for synoptic models that the vast majority on here eagerly watch as each page downloads.

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Could well be a epic cold spell this.

Can't believe these charts are not downgrading.Even if they do a tad,still be great for us coldies. 

Meto update is music to my ears. Cmonnnnnnnnn bring it on

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I wonder what the chances are  of them getting it all wrong and suddenly Friday's output showing spring time instead :rofl:

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1 hour ago, drgl said:

I'll eat my hat if what actually happens is anything like what the computer models are showing. Been here many times, this place goes into meltdown and zip actually happens. Hope I am wrong but until the event actually starts feet firmly on the ground. The forecasts back on December 8th were incorrect, forecasting heavy snow when we had none and vice versa. Comparing these fantasy charts to the likes 0f 47, 63 , 87 etc is just bonkers. Hope I'm wrong and will need to get the shovel out again next week but somehow doubt it......

Quoted for future use...!

More seriously, the difference this time is the consistency with the models. Normally we have one outlier calling it diffferently and the models converge on a tepid compromise. This time they all think it’s going to be Baltic.

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If you think some in the mod thread have entered ramp mode;

 
Found while looking for met office twitter.

 

Edited by Deep Snow please

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Reality is going to smack hard in here soon. BBC and Meto aren’t even forecasting a top 3 coldest day of winter so far during the “bitterly” cold weekend and beginning of next week. 

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BBC forecast is very cold but dry next week.  So little chance of some snow until milder weather attempts to break down the pattern. :doh::wallbash:

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21 minutes ago, March said:

Reality is going to smack hard in here soon. BBC and Meto aren’t even forecasting a top 3 coldest day of winter so far during the “bitterly” cold weekend and beginning of next week. 

Really  Meto has me for Monday   (as thats as far as i can see)  at -1 during the day with a - 8 windchill.  that for me at least is coldest this winter.

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23 minutes ago, Deep Snow please said:

If you think some in the mod thread have entered ramp mode;

 
Found while looking for met office twitter.

 

Definitely too early for red warnings I agree, but if we get to the weekend with the same output shown as currently then something should be done. Knowing how crap the UK is at coping with genuinely wintry weather it could be chaos.

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Significant snowfall across the Southern part of England and along the east coast looks highly likely now with active systems running up the English Channel notwithstanding agreement across the models for a severe easterly intrusion due to the SSW. This kind of event, should it occur, is of course a rarity indeed for the whole of the country (about once every 30 years) but when they occur they shock England in particularly and they always bring road traffic chaos, schools close, shops run out of supplies due to problems with delivery etc. But when it gets this cold it does catch people out especially the elderly so please keep an eye on them! Note that 7 February 1991 was one of the coldest days in the 20 Century and equaled the intense cold of February 1956 and the same with 12 January 1987 but February 1986 was one of the coldest months in the 20 century. I wonder if we will see any records broken in the coming spell and note that the infamous severe winter of 1947 began late and didn't finish until the end of March! The last 30 years of relatively mundane winters may well have put people into a false sense that such events can never really happen here in the UK.

Edited by Polar Walker

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4 hours ago, knocker said:

It has to be said that the EPS is trying desperately hard to run the main splodge of very cold air to our east south east. :shok:

'Splodge'. I like it!  Good old fashioned meteorological term, that... :D

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2 hours ago, Woollymummy said:

Is it too soon to warn my older relatives to get more logs ready? They live in a freezing cold house, and do not necessarily have enough supplies in all the time.

Never mind about the extra logs - you need to suggest they come and live with you for a couple of weeks.  When the power cuts start you can share the candles!

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Surely the TV forecasts won't predict heavy snow for anywhere next week until I'd say at least late Sat/Sun, mainly because it's impossible until we know the exact orientation of the wind direction and it's potency? It will start with light snow in the East regardless, so we're probably looking at 7 days plus.

As has been stated more eloquently by others more knowledgeable, our air is almost certainly going to come from the continent next week, but the local differences for just a small adjustment from, say, E'ly to NE'ly will have a huge bearing on which areas see convective snow and how much. It's the nature of convective vs frontal snow. There's also the potential for the flow to be less strong than currently modeled, which will dictate how far inland any showers can get.

Just my two cents as nothing is confirmed, but I wouldn't expect even the best agencies to herald the next apocalypse just yet.

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38 minutes ago, Deep Snow please said:

If you think some in the mod thread have entered ramp mode;

 
Found while looking for met office twitter.

 

What a troll that guy is.

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4 hours ago, knocker said:

It has to be said that the EPS is trying desperately hard to run the main splodge of very cold air to our east south east. :shok:

how so?

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Could be some Captain Oates weather next week? I'm off out to find some KFC. I might be gone for some time. :D

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Keep an eye around 96 to 120 hours on gfs 12z and see if it continues to delay the cold!!its nearly an outlier in the ensembles around 24 to the 25th in regards to the delay!!we dont want to see the cold delayed any longer as theres a higher chance of things going wrong!!been bitten far too many times before and it could all still go wrong ar a short time frame!!

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3 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

What a troll that guy is.

I guarantee the previous entry in his browser history was express.co.uk. They love mentioning the monster 'Polar Vortex Hammering Over the UK'.

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2 minutes ago, Number 23 said:

I guarantee the previous entry in his browser history was express.co.uk. They love mentioning the monster 'Polar Vortex Hammering Over the UK'.

Seems to have took him a while to realise who actually issues red warnings :fool: as well, apparently Tomasz Schaffernaker of all people should be issuing them! :rofl:

 

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