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2 hours ago, Woollymummy said:

Is it too soon to warn my older relatives to get more logs ready? They live in a freezing cold house, and do not necessarily have enough supplies in all the time.

Never mind about the extra logs - you need to suggest they come and live with you for a couple of weeks.  When the power cuts start you can share the candles!

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Surely the TV forecasts won't predict heavy snow for anywhere next week until I'd say at least late Sat/Sun, mainly because it's impossible until we know the exact orientation of the wind direction and it's potency? It will start with light snow in the East regardless, so we're probably looking at 7 days plus.

As has been stated more eloquently by others more knowledgeable, our air is almost certainly going to come from the continent next week, but the local differences for just a small adjustment from, say, E'ly to NE'ly will have a huge bearing on which areas see convective snow and how much. It's the nature of convective vs frontal snow. There's also the potential for the flow to be less strong than currently modeled, which will dictate how far inland any showers can get.

Just my two cents as nothing is confirmed, but I wouldn't expect even the best agencies to herald the next apocalypse just yet.

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Keep an eye around 96 to 120 hours on gfs 12z and see if it continues to delay the cold!!its nearly an outlier in the ensembles around 24 to the 25th in regards to the delay!!we dont want to see the cold delayed any longer as theres a higher chance of things going wrong!!been bitten far too many times before and it could all still go wrong ar a short time frame!!

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2 minutes ago, Number 23 said:

I guarantee the previous entry in his browser history was express.co.uk. They love mentioning the monster 'Polar Vortex Hammering Over the UK'.

Seems to have took him a while to realise who actually issues red warnings :fool: as well, apparently Tomasz Schaffernaker of all people should be issuing them! :rofl:

 

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1 hour ago, DOdo said:

I wonder what the chances are  of them getting it all wrong and suddenly Friday's output showing spring time instead :rofl:

be wary of ens no7 on GFS, what we don't want

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=192&code=7&mode=0&carte=0

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7 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Hmmm I can't really see how that chart has tried to steer that (nasty) CAA away..... Looks pretty cold to me.

I'm reading the wind flow lines (admittedly as an amateur) as the source of air for the UK to be coming from the area just off the coast of scandi which is a much milder than the frigid air over the baltic and indeed milder than that already over the uk at the time.  The frigid air to the East would i assume end up over benelux/france based on the flow lines?

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8 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Guy on Twitter  wants the army in  and a COBRA Meeting ASAP   he is having a right go at me.  :D

I understand that the armed forces cut back on arctic warfare training last year so will obviously be unable to cope with what is meant to be hitting us next week anyway.  Probably best not to tell the chap on twitter that. :D

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Just now, swebby said:

I understand that the armed forces cut back on arctic warfare training last year so will obviously be unable to cope with what is meant to be hitting us next week anyway.  Probably best not to tell the chap on twitter that. :D

LOL  ive got myself into one here   he wants shelters put up for the Homeless  Expects 10 ft drifts  and the vortex to be over us till April   Apparently the Government are aware and are making plans.  

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17 minutes ago, swebby said:

I'm reading the wind flow lines (admittedly as an amateur) as the source of air for the UK to be coming from the area just off the coast of scandi which is a much milder than the frigid air over the baltic and indeed milder than that already over the uk at the time.  The frigid air to the East would i assume end up over benelux/france based on the flow lines?

I can see that but there is still -10 air over the UK and the source of the air is simply taking a slightly longer sea trek.... great for showers. 

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1 minute ago, weirpig said:

LOL  ive got myself into one here   he wants shelters put up for the Homeless  Expects 10 ft drifts  and the vortex to be over us till April   Apparently the Government are aware and are making plans.  

Yeah, plans to spray us with chemtrails! ?

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1 minute ago, weirpig said:

LOL  ive got myself into one here   he wants shelters put up for the Homeless  Expects 10 ft drifts  and the vortex to be over us till April   Apparently the Government are aware and are making plans.  

I'm sure he blames the Remoaners!! Bloody EU sending their cold over here. He read that in the Express too.

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7 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

I can see that but there is still -10 air over the UK and the source of the air is simply taking a slightly longer sea trek.... great for showers. 

Probably will be and i suspect more moisture from that source to boot, but the splodge as @knocker so eloquently called it ends up in france if i'm reading that chart correctly?

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Ive got a terrible feeling about the 12z gfs right now!!i feel things are gona downgrade tonight!!if gfs gives a good run then that will rest my nerves!!that delay in cold is bugging me now!!good god dont put us through any more heartache gfs??

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12 minutes ago, weirpig said:

LOL  ive got myself into one here   he wants shelters put up for the Homeless  Expects 10 ft drifts  and the vortex to be over us till April   Apparently the Government are aware and are making plans.  

Eeek, i'd sneak away quickly if i was you. 

Bonkers or not, he does have a valid point about the homeless.  Sleeping rough in temps failing to get above freezing for just a couple of days is a serious risk.

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