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This is wrong on so many levels...

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Posted
  • Location: Skelmersdale
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: 6-10 degrees. Spring 12-16 degrees. Summer 17-22 degrees.
  • Location: Skelmersdale

    The MAD thread need to be careful what they wish for. 1cm of snow crippled the motorways not long back. If this comes off as projected, the country would be in pandemonium. Not to mention, the GFS is keen on shunting it away very quickly. I'd rather a prolonged, dry easterly but to each their own.

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    Just now, Ice Man 85 said:

    The MAD thread need to be careful what they wish for. 1cm of snow crippled the motorways not long back. If this comes off as projected, the country would be in pandemonium. Not to mention, the GFS is keen on shunting it away very quickly. I'd rather a prolonged, dry easterly but to each their own.

    I agree , easier toook after animals.

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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
    3 hours ago, Mokidugway said:

    Plume at T120 ?? :rofl:

    It's happening now:rofl:

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    Posted
  • Location: North Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms / Sunshine / Snow
  • Location: North Bristol

    There are still obviously variations showing but it certainly looks positive going forward. I cannot deny that I am excited because I don't think I have ever had this expression written across my face on so many consecutive model runs (ops, means etc) whilst a member of this forum.

    tenor.thumb.gif.02c6cdeb61581c0f516941af47546050.gif

    Hopefully we see these excellent charts continue as we progress through the week and fingers and toes crossed it delivers a final bite of winter this season for us cold & snow lovers to enjoy. A lot of the analysis since the SSW kicked in has been excellent. Whilst we have had people explain nothing is guaranteed and I try to remain grounded, monitoring potential stratospheric influences on our weather has been and continues to be fascinating (if a tad nerve-wracking). :laugh:

    Whatever the outcome, this sort of model watching is a big reason why I have such an interest in meteorology. Once Spring eventually sets in, I thenstart my thunderstorm searching :D 

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    I really can not bear to look at the 00z runs.

    Im so excited by the 18z GFS - but im equally scared EC 12Z will come to frution- and the French nick all that siberian cold and snow.

    Just got to get EC 00z at 72 hours to look like gfs and i will relax.

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    Posted
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
  • Weather Preferences: Gales, T-storms, Heavy Rain, Heat, Cold - Love it all.
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
    6 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

    I wouldn’t bother looking at the model output into March yet the irony of this post.. P1 March comes in with roar.

    398B3577-8F61-405D-B97B-0FEB04BBD096.thumb.jpeg.10b6d3c0d56ec7e421e74f5bbcf73547.jpeg4BB2DC7B-29E8-4EFC-835F-40D3EC92B936.thumb.jpeg.870684365da0ed0c2375e29a8b93a5d8.jpeg

    once this beast is out the way and hopefully we snow starved southerners get enough snow to quench our thirst. I do not see a resumption of normal service, for those in northern Britain the second or third phase could be the most wintriest as we enter March. Retrogression to Greenland with the floodgates opening from the north this could be a very long cold spell, that I see will swallow up much of March.

    Please, no! That image of the UK haunts me badly. I was in one of a few places that is completely green from no snow.

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
    2 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

    Please, no! That image of the UK haunts me badly. I was in one of a few places that is completely green from no snow.

    I think you’ll likely join in! I don’t think the uppers were dramatically cold back then.

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    Ec still not playing ball for snow potential away from the SE..

    Most of Europe buried on that run apart from... :-(

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    Posted
  • Location: Wythall, Worcestershire, 150m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Continental climate, snow winter, sunny summers
  • Location: Wythall, Worcestershire, 150m asl
    8 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

    Ec still not playing ball for snow potential away from the SE..

    Most of Europe buried on that run apart from... :-(

    ECMs has had a poor winter though with regards the U.K. and cold spells. We also know it tends to drag it’s heels in terms of correcting to the right route, so wouldn’t be too concerned at this stage, given other key models disagree in terms of how quick the cold comes in and where the deep cold goes.

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    Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

    Plenty of time for correction Nortwards,the ECM has performed pretty badly for our region of the Northern Hempishere this winter for some reason .gfs and rest of the models look much better

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

    2 EC op's now where the beast is missing us, hmm, makes you wonder, will this beast arrive? have my doubts, still yet to have a true beast in the modern eraa, 2000+

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    Posted
  • Location: Shorne West, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Sun in summer, Snow in Winter
  • Location: Shorne West, Kent
    15 hours ago, Shunter said:

    and quite right too..........BBC Snowwatch euphoria rules in the MOD thread  ( Snowmageddon, etc etc ) .....however look on GFS 12z OP and you see a 4-5 day Cold spell with snow showers mostly in the East followed by gradual thaw as Snow-Rain as LP with associated warm core arrives from SE.  

    Remember 3 days ago we had snow flurries arriving in SE this Tuesday....this has now moved back to Friday/Saturday.

     

    And now Sunday. The “epic” charts are always 8-9 days away. Exactly why it is called Fantasy Island.

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    Posted
  • Location: Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Anything interesting!
  • Location: Chelmsford, Essex

    Some variations on the general theme emerging now. Would have been very surprised to see those extreme solutions across the board just slot into the reliable without some output which delays or tempers the depth or timing for the uk.

    I expect more of the same for at least the next few days. It was never going to get much more extreme from where it was, which all told is perhaps a good thing! 

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    Posted
  • Location: Tonbridge Kent
  • Location: Tonbridge Kent

    I just get the feeling that BBC Weather Presenters are beginning to back away slightly from very cold coming in next week!

    Although, I don't think they were ever giving the impression that it will be a notable nationwide spell of very cold and wintry weather.

    I know they often sit on the fence until they are absolutely sure that a weather event is almost certainly going to happen.

    But, the lack of enthusiasm and use of words like 'there's a chance' or 'there's potential' and 'especially the Southern half of the country' are rather worrying.

    Let's hope the pattern comes together in our favour but I'm even more concerned after reading the Nick Sussex post (Model Thread) about the effects of the second SSW!  :wallbash:

     

    Edited by snowblizzard
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    Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

    The ecm at the end of the run is a thing of beauty as it retrogresses the high cell thus backing the wind and thus driving the cold air south. But it's essential that the trough is not allowed to far west so as to keep the inclement weather at arms length.

    gph500_anom_240.jpg?2018021900

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    Posted
  • Location: Coventry, 102m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow or Heat
  • Location: Coventry, 102m asl
    13 minutes ago, knocker said:

    The ecm at the end of the run is a thing of beauty as it retrogresses the high cell thus backing the wind and thus driving the cold air south. But it's essential that the trough is not allowed to far west so as to keep the inclement weather at arms length.

    gph500_anom_240.jpg?2018021900

    Hi Knocker, two questions please; 

    1. You don't post in the MOD thread anymore, used to like your unbiased interpretation from the charts

    2. What is your take on the current developments. My take is that the current synoptic favour EC rather than GFS

    Thanks

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    Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
    3 minutes ago, sawan said:

    Hi Knocker, two questions please; 

    1. You don't post in the MOD thread anymore, used to like your unbiased interpretation from the charts

    2. What is your take on the current developments. My take is that the current synoptic favour EC rather than GFS

    Thanks

    Hi Sawan

    I'm surplus to requirements in the MOD thread :) but I wouldn't be confident in favoring the evolution of any specific pattern given the fluidity of the upper air at the moment as slight variations can have significant impacts. If pushed I would lean towards the ecm but I have not got sound meteorological reasons for saying that. The way that model is indicating would I suspect be the better outcome for the chionophiles :shok:

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    Posted
  • Location: Coventry, 102m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow or Heat
  • Location: Coventry, 102m asl
    6 minutes ago, knocker said:

    Hi Sawan

    I'm surplus to requirements in the MOD thread :) but I wouldn't be confident in favoring the evolution of any specific pattern given the fluidity of the upper air at the moment as slight variations can have significant impacts. If pushed I would lean towards the ecm but I have not got sound meteorological reasons for saying that. The way that model is indicating would I suspect be the better outcome for the chionophiles :shok:

    No body is surplus Knocks. It's such a shame that a few so called weather experts are bullies. A few years ago when I joined NW forum, it used be a much better place with no concept of using aggressive/abusive language. I know it's a lot of work but Moderators should filter and ban such people from posting. Please continue the great work there are still many who admire your skills and inputs :hi:

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    Posted
  • Location: North Wales Riviera
  • Location: North Wales Riviera
    12 minutes ago, knocker said:

    Hi Sawan

    I'm surplus to requirements in the MOD thread :) but I wouldn't be confident in favoring the evolution of any specific pattern given the fluidity of the upper air at the moment as slight variations can have significant impacts. If pushed I would lean towards the ecm but I have not got sound meteorological reasons for saying that. The way that model is indicating would I suspect be the better outcome for the chionophiles :shok:

    Imho you’re certainly not surplus to requirements. You’re the voice of reason and refrain from getting carried away like the model thread people who are just after likes.

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    Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
    8 minutes ago, knocker said:

    Hi Sawan

    I'm surplus to requirements in the MOD thread :) but I wouldn't be confident in favoring the evolution of any specific pattern given the fluidity of the upper air at the moment as slight variations can have significant impacts. If pushed I would lean towards the ecm but I have not got sound meteorological reasons for saying that. The way that model is indicating would I suspect be the better outcome for the chionophiles :shok:

    A sound meteorological reason would be that the ECM is the best-verifying model over time, of course. But day-to-day verification is much more volatile so who knows? The much-maligned CFS beat it yesterday, for example :D

    cor_day5_HGT_P500_G2NHX.png

     

    I shudder at the thought of the anger and recrimination should it all go wrong.

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Ireland - East Coast
  • Location: Ireland - East Coast
    6 minutes ago, sawan said:

    No body is surplus Knocks. It's such a shame that a few so called weather experts are bullies. A few years ago when I joined NW forum, it used be a much better place with no concept of using aggressive/abusive language. I know it's a lot of work but Moderators should filter and ban such people from posting. Please continue the great work there are still many who admire your skills and inputs :hi:

    Yes to all of this, but even more important is the quality of the posts, there are several on the Mod thread that post inane waffle that clutter the thread up to the extent it is almost useless. Quality over quantity. 

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