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Polar Maritime

Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

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Yep always the same,have a feeling this winter is going to go down as one that promised so much   In FL but actually delivered sweet F A for lots of people in the end 

Edited by SLEETY
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At day 4-5 models are struggling to nail .    day 10 don’t bother taking seriously 

Edited by abbie123

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To be strictly accurate the models never downgrade or upgrade as this is purely subjective and down entirely to the perception of the viewer. Which is of course totally objective and never influenced by irrelevances such as an irrational desire for cold and snow. For god's sake knocker what are you saying, get a grip.

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3 minutes ago, abbie123 said:

I’m shocked that Some folks saying downgrades ..:rofl:

F7AB9F60-D1BF-41B7-A865-C7EF613AE068.png

EC is a downgrade?

No snow out to day 10 and beyond, colder yes, significant cold and snow, nope. The previous 2 EC ops were, lets see where it sits on eps..

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8 hours ago, 78/79 said:

40 years ago this weekend was the Great Southwest Blizzard, a howling Easterly Gale, and over a foot of level snow , together with enormous drifts .   3 weeks or so before my 18th birthday, Will we see a possible repeat performance  ?:D

Yes, I'm roughly the same age as you and I remember it well. Living on Dartmoor, we had lying snow for weeks and I remember driving through tunnels of snow high up on the moor, after the snowploughs had been through and the walls of white were feet above the top of the car. An incredible sight and the most snow I've ever seen in this country. Mind you I do live in the SW so that's probably not saying much.🤣🤣🤣 I do remember feeling really sad for all the poor animals stuck on the moor though. The last 'real' snowfall in my garden that didnt look like dandruff was 8 years ago. Surely we deserve a break? 

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This is stated in the user manual of the gfs. Look at a couple days of 00Z and 12Z runs for consistency. Avoid the 06Z and 18Z runs when 00 or 12 is available

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Temperatuur

De bilt.

A LOT more milder members than yesterday, looks to me like the colder members are dropping out compared to yesterday.

Think we need a pretty big swing back on the 12zs!

vast majority show + temps in the day and - temps at night , thats not going to be enough for a deep freeze at this stage of winter and thats for holland.

I do hope exeter have not over hyped this..

Edited by northwestsnow

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The thing for me is because this is a unique SSW, chaos theory is at a premium in the models....ensemble suites are flipping more frequently than snowboarders at the moment. It will settle down but I reckon with a second warming happening, the models are just spewing out what they can handle.....Interesting fun to watch but ultimately nothing to get too hung up about. If we get a very cold Easterley cool, otherwise I can get out in the garden an prepare for warm days an bbqs.

Ps. I've got to go buy myself a new iron today that's causing me a lot more stress!

Edited by FiftyShadesofSnow
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Forget the SSW, I notice the SAE’s (Sudden Atmospheric Experts) are back, with all their knowledge surpassing those dolts at the Met Office.

Could they, perhaps, wait a bit and see how the SSW will play out? It’ll take up to another 10 days or so and models in that time will, no doubt, be flipping about somewhat!

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14 minutes ago, FiftyShadesofSnow said:

The thing for me is because this is a unique SSW, chaos theory is at a premium in the models....ensemble suites are flipping more frequently than snowboarders at the moment. It will settle down but I reckon with a second warming happening, the models are just spewing out what they can handle.....Interesting fun to watch but ultimately nothing to get too hung up about. If we get a very cold Easterley cool, otherwise I can get out in the garden an prepare for warm days an bbqs.

Ps. I've got to go buy myself a new iron today that's causing me a lot more stress!

Miss Entropy 

IMG_1672.JPG

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11 hours ago, Team Jo said:

 

fantastic charts this morning ALL going for an easterly wind and possibly getting even colder in fand exactly what the experts at the metoffice are saying 😁 especially for South and easterns parts of the country 

Edited by Lampostwatcher
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1 hour ago, snowblizzard said:

Met Office & BBC Weather still seem very bullish about the outcome being some sort of Easterly by the middle/end of next week.

It's a long time since we've heard words like "winds coming all the way from Russia and Siberia' in a weather forecast for the UK.

How it all pans-out in terms of deep cold and whether it will result in a significant snow event is still very much open to question.

But, surely this is our best chance of something decent in terms of cold & snow for the snow starved cold lovers in SE England.

I just wish it had happened 6 weeks ago when the sun was in a much weaker phase!

Just vacated the “classroom “ and this post is the most sensible I’ve read this morning.

Sometimes it’s best to stand back and look at the bigger picture. I think it’s obvious we are going to get colder, with winds expected to be from an Easterly quarter. Depending on Where the HP lands determines whether we are dry or otherwise. So in a nutshell , cold ( potentially becoming colder ). Dry initially but possibly snowy as time progresses with the SE this time being in the immediate firing line. 

With the Jetstream “ retiring” to Africa, at least we can escape the mild SW / Nw dross that’s been dished up down here over  the past few months.

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31 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

Forget the SSW, I notice the SAE’s (Sudden Atmospheric Experts) are back, with all their knowledge surpassing those dolts at the Met Office.

Could they, perhaps, wait a bit and see how the SSW will play out? It’ll take up to another 10 days or so and models in that time will, no doubt, be flipping about somewhat!

Summed up nicely just now with 2 x eps suites with quite different output....Long way to run this one yet. 

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If we do end up having a severe wintry spell then I hope those of us on here who  are not only weather enthusiasts but also animal lovers will be doing what they can to help their local wildlife out. 

I remember back in Dec 2010 walking round a friends house which took me past a large pond and the amount of ducks & swans that came rushing over because they were so desperate for food, certainly tugged at the heart strings I can tell you but I didn't have anything for them, brought a load of food the following day though and went back everyday afterwards until the cold spell ended.

Edited by Smartie
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9 minutes ago, Smartie said:

If we do end up having a severe wintry spell then I hope all of us on here who  are not only weather enthusiasts but also animal lovers will be doing what they can to help their local wildlife out. 

I remember back in Dec 2010 walking round a friends house which took me past a large pond and the amount of ducks & swans that came rushing over because they were so desperate for food, certainly tugged at the heart strings I can tell you but I didn't have anything for them, brought a load of food the following day though and went back everyday afterwards until the cold spell ended.

Will certainly be doing that, whatever the weather we end up having. I feed the birds all winter and through spring, it’s actually from late winter that they are most in need of extra food sources. Wilko’s sell big bags of bird seed for £1.50.

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lol a ramp too far...

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LOL @GFS 

Thats all you can do!!

Headline making run, now , just the small matter of getting those charts at 168 onwards into the reliable timeframe.

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Must the resist urge to get excited!

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5 minutes ago, John Hodgson said:

Must the resist urge to get excited!

If 6z comes off you will be building igloos!!

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20 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

Will certainly be doing that, whatever the weather we end up having. I feed the birds all winter and through spring, it’s actually from late winter that they are most in need of extra food sources. Wilko’s sell big bags of bird seed for £1.50.

Same here, got feeders in the garden all year round, usually attract loads of goldfinches, sunflower hearts is the best  food you can use, plenty of birds like that stuff. If the severe cold does arrive I expect to see plenty of birds at the feeders. 

Edited by Smartie
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winter is coming no doubt about that according to the met office experts 

and it starts mid next week 

I joined this forum 8 years ago after jumping ship from the weatheroutlook 

as I found this place had more banter 

I've done alot of lamppst watching and radar over the years 

but I'm now starting to think this could be the snowfall I've been craving s8nce Feb 1991

Edited by Lampostwatcher
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