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Model Moans, Ramps and Banter


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Im still far from convinced TBH..

However.. i want it to come off for the SE crew really..

Even the north west has had an event this year..

Fingers crossed but for every delay that sun gets stronger.

Need to see this easterly upgraded to earlier for the south imho.

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6 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Im still far from convinced TBH..

However.. i want it to come off for the SE crew really..

Even the north west has had an event this year..

Fingers crossed but for every delay that sun gets stronger.

Need to see this easterly upgraded to earlier for the south imho.

See it every year, just never gets here, was arriving 20th Feb, now around 24th, infact not at all really on GFS op

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6 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

See it every year, just never gets here, was arriving 20th Feb, now around 24th, infact not at all really on GFS op

Yeah its getting delayed on the ops and TBH the 12zGEFS have increased the less cold runs.

Like i say..im sceptical..very sceptical..any easterly by the 1st week in march is going to leave a what could of been taste in the mouth, esp for the south.

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3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Yeah its getting delayed on the ops and TBH the 12zGEFS have increased the less cold runs.

Like i say..im sceptical..very sceptical..any easterly by the 1st week in march is going to leave a what could of been taste in the mouth, esp for the south.

March E'lys never great, less convection due to cold seas

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The metoffice update is correct in that there is 'potential' for a significant event but looking at the latest ens it's clear that divergence occurs around the 21st - with the control and op on the milder side I'd bet on a downgraded next update unless mogreps is seeing something different 

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1 hour ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

I give up on the Model thread!:nonono:   I appreciate that the models are hardly consistent ion their output, but that's all the more reason to think logically rather than reacting to the changes and typing agonised posts one minute and excited the next.  What's worse, IMO, are the posts that seem to be deliberately annoying other members, usually mild ramps without any evidence provided to support the assertions that are being made.  Cumulatively, the effect is that no two posts on the same model run seem to agree.  I appreciate that individual members' interpretations of the outputs will generate differing views on what the models are showing, but we seem to have opinions at present that range from deep cold and snow through to late spring warmth.  I'm half expecting to see someone predict a Spanish Plume with a Mesoscale Convective System!:rofl:

Even worse are the posts which react to mild posts as if the poster has literally summoned the warmer weather. Ferchrissakes! Nothing posted on here will make a difference to the weather!

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Well, erm, snowing here again if its any comfort?

I should keep a ledger of how many times posters say the Op runs lead the way when they show cold, but its the ens that are most important when they don't. 

My personal opinion. Good chances of some colder weather the next 30 days. Blocking exceedingly likely at high latitudes. Will that give -12 uppers to the UK and snow fests? No idea, but it would be bad luck not to get somethimg close for at least a few days.

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Ah yes lets throw in the ICON, GEM and JMA charts if it helps our cause to ease the 'coldies' nerves (as you know they're showing better synoptics than the 'big 3'...almost laughable in the MOD thread currently...

God!... I wish we didn't have this SSW event now if it's going to carry on like this for the next few weeks :)

Edited by Froze were the Days
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11 hours ago, Azazel said:

Are there any signs of Spring on the horizon? I know this weekend is supposed to be pleasant, but if the deep cold is getting pushed back into FI all the time, i would rather look for signs of warmth.

Lol, I was beginning to think I was the only person on here looking forward to Spring. Happy about the milder temps next week.

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8 minutes ago, Hirudine said:

Lol, I was beginning to think I was the only person on here looking forward to Spring. Happy about the milder temps next week.

flip flopping of the models is driving everyone in the MOD thread nuts, if spring doesn't come soon and put everyone out of their misery, then i fear  that everyone will be :crazy: by mid march

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I think all this chasing cold has made people forget that next week looks spring-like. After many days with heavy rain over the last few weeks I would welcome a drier spell.

Some rubbish being spouted on the MOD thread, such as the GEM being the best run of the internet era :rofl:, the ECM, GFS and UKMO being the worst models and a few sunspots somehow causing the cold spell to fall apart :rofl:.

I do think the wheels will start falling off but hope isn't lost yet. However it wouldn't surprise me if we got tropical SW'lies from the Azores low whilst eastern Europe freezes.

If the Canadian PV is pouring out cold into the North Atlantic, everything usually gets shifted eastward unless there is a strong Scandi high and we all know how poor the last one was.

It's that little cold spot in the Central North Atlantic that keeps hurting our chances as I mentioned in my crossroads post a few days ago. I mentioned that cold spells are going to be harder to come by in a warming climate and got told I was a climate change high priest, then people complain why it's so hard to get a cold spell in our country nowadays :rofl:.

Edited by Quicksilver1989
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Just now, Mapantz said:

It was in the model thread, not in here. I used the multiquote function and posted it in here, as to not follow in the footsteps of two people I was quoting.


Trust me, I report it, if I see it.

As I was catching up in the model thread, I was reporting off-topic posts, as I got to the last page, they kept on coming.. I got so fed up with it, I decided to tell them in here. It was those two that were continuing deluge of crap

fair enough as regards re-posting in here. probably best not to start a row with them though, the mods have been dealing pretty well with o/t posts recently and apparently a few have been slapped with restrictions!

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Is this the key? How will the migration NW of the high pressure and south east of the vortex lobe pan out? :shok: Keep tuned for updates of the unfolding saga which is claiming so many innocent victims.

gefs_z500a_5d_nh_65.png

Edited by knocker
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2 minutes ago, knocker said:

Is this the key? How will the migration NW of the high pressure and south east of the vortex lobe pan out? :shok: Keep tuned for updates of the unfolding saga which is claiming so many innocent victims.

gefs_z500a_5d_nh_65.png

They aren't innocent. Victims I suppose... :-)

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51 minutes ago, joggs said:

Watch out for the flying toys and dummy's in mod thread lol.

Good easterly at day 10 though lololol.

Like a stopped clock etc it'll come right eventually one year and one of the models will be king for a week as it was the first to predict it etc, etc. It's interesting from a psychological point of view and if you strip away the weather aspect, it's like so many other forums, from buying shares to football- the big one/win/rise/cold/storm is always just around the corner!! Jam tomorrow. 

I'll stick to the reliable time frame.

 

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