Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

[knocker]

Still Hope Springs Eternal

[Gustywind]

Yep still confident the high pressure slug will resist moving north of the U.K., leaving us under milder conditions while Central/Southern Europe goes into the freezer.

[joggs]

Titticus virtigus

[snowspotter]

5 days time we I will start analysing each run . Not yet!. Far too early building blocks there for possible cold spell. If people want to over analyse each run now then good luck . Will drive you mad  as a hatter and frankly its pointless and and a complete waste of energy and time . BUT .......they never learn!

[Evening thunder]

ECM back on the naughty step I see - talk of it having been dreadful and lagging behing all winter etc, when really there's no evidence for that. If anything it's seemed more consistent than most to me recently, though yes a bit of filp flopping at days 8-10 like all models. Someone posted charts showing that at the moment it is being more 'stable' at days 6/7.

Never mind, the GFS at T+288 and GEFS at t+384 mean epic ramp time 

[northwestsnow]

Whats that noise?

Ah yes its the sound of the wheels falling off, again.

You have to lol.

Edited February 14, 2018 by northwestsnow

[Froze were the Days]

Great winter for model watching...not so great on actual outcome, and for me that is why I follow the models, that we''ll get some decent cold and snow. To be frank I feel they've been all over the place this winter and I know every character of each brick on that path we've been led up.

Edited February 14, 2018 by Froze were the Days

[frosty ground]

1 hour ago, knocker said:

That rather depends on your viewpoint, Apart from the fact that very cold weather makes me feel unwell I have three main reasons why any forthcoming intensely cold weather concerns me.

1. It sends heating bills through the roof which disproportionately affects the elderly and sick

2. A very negative affect on wildlife

3. And it will speed up the cull of the vulnerable and elderly, like myself, initiated by the Tories and currently well under way.

 

So you hate all kinds of extreme then?

On point 2 it's not like nature can't cope with a bit of cold.....

Doesn't mild damp weather help bugs spread making people even old people sick?

So when did the Tories start culling their own voter base..... 

[frosty ground]

17 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Whats that noise?

Ah yes its the sound of the wheels falling off, again.

You have to lol.

Hearing things again?

[DanDorsetUK]

Once again signs of all the ramping falling apart and left with egg on there faces yet again. Why people post such charts way out in fantasy land in 10 days time and get excited over computer generated weather is beyond me. Everything ever posted is always 10 days away and by the time those charts reach T0 it's completely different anyway. You'd think how people ramp the 10 days charts are always right when in reality it never is.

[January Snowstorm]

Am I hallucinating or are we chasing easterlys all Winter. Some can't seem to wake up to the fact that Spring is here in 2 weeks and any snow will be followed by drip drip an hour later....The trends are clearly delaying the ssw effect yet we can barely mention it on the main thread without being swarmed by the coldie brigade. This is a wonderful forum BUT far too much cold bias allowed on the model thread....

[knocker]

1 minute ago, frosty ground said:

So you hate all kinds of extreme then?

On point 2 it's not like nature can't cope with a bit of cold.....

Doesn't mild damp weather help bugs spread making people even old people sick?

So when did the Tories start culling their own voter base..... 

Well I did do 20 years in the North Atlantic on Ocean Weather Ships experiencing some very extreme weather so for half my working life I had to suspend my hatred of extreme. And I actually extremely dislike the liberal use of the words hate and hatred that permeates this site..

When they cut the Social Care budget by £4 billion in the last parliament.

[frosty ground]

1 minute ago, Rapodo said:

Once again signs of all the ramping falling apart and left with egg on there faces yet again. Why people post such charts way out in fantasy land in 10 days time and get excited over computer generated weather is beyond me. Everything ever posted is always 10 days away and by the time those charts reach T0 it's completely different anyway. You'd think how people ramp the 10 days charts are always right when in reality it never is.

I'll have a little bet with you......

I bet you can't find a single post that states a day 10 chart or above will verify. 

[frosty ground]

1 minute ago, knocker said:

Well I did do 20 years in the North Atlantic on Ocean Weather Ships experiencing some very extreme weather so for half my working life I had to suspend my hatred of extreme. And I actually extremely dislike the liberal use of the words hate and hatred that permeates this site..

When they cut the Social Care budget by £4 billion in the last parliament.

Would you prefer me to use the word dislike? Not that it make any difference to me.

I'll think you will find that our elderly have been the ones protected from Austerity, had The tories kept their original idea of making all people contribute to their social care and still allowing them to pass on 100k to their families we wouldn't have any short fall but you can thank the OTT press reaction and a politically astute Corbyn for that.

[knocker]

12 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Would you prefer me to use the word dislike? Not that it make any difference to me.

I'll think you will find that our elderly have been the ones protected from Austerity, had The tories kept their original idea of making all people contribute to their social care and still allowing them to pass on 100k to their families we wouldn't have any short fall but you can thank the OTT press reaction and a politically astute Corbyn for that.

I couldn't give a toss what word you use and the rest of your answer is totally irrelevant to desperate state of social care in the community which has directly led to hospitals being in crisis with people dying in corridors and being treated in the car park, Not counting the thousands who have to remain in hospital due to no social care package being available. Mind I suppose the upside of that is they will be warm if does get intensely cold unless the heating is turned off to save money of course.

Edited February 14, 2018 by knocker

[Deep Snow please]

Just for clarification this is the "model, moans, ramps and banter thread." Yes? I haven't wondered into the serious discussion forum by accident.

 

That suggestion above of not looking at models until Sunday might be a good one.

[frosty ground]

11 minutes ago, knocker said:

I couldn't give a toss what word you use and the rest of your answer is totally irrelevant to desperate state of social care in the community which has directly led to hospitals being in crisis with people dying in corridors and being treated in the car park, Not counting the thousands who have to remain in hospital due to no social care package being available. Mind I suppose the upside of that is they will be warm if does get intensely cold unless the heating is turned off to save money of course.

Of course my answer is relevant...... you complain about Social care, I told you what could have solved it and you say its irrelevant. you couldn't undermine your own argument any more if you actually tried.

As for cold weather or extreme weather in general, we do not control it wanting it or not wanting it makes no difference. This is a weather forum and a lot of the people here like extremes, doesn't mean they wanna see the elderly freeze. 

[ptow]

39 minutes ago, knocker said:

When they cut the Social Care budget by £4 billion in the last parliament.

Maybe the many claiming benefits and pretending to not be able to work therefore not adding to the pot that would have helped pay for that Social Care budget have some blame as well

[knocker]

3 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Of course my answer is relevant...... you complain about Social care, I told you what could have solved it and you say its irrelevant. you couldn't undermine your own argument any more if you actually tried.

As for cold weather or extreme weather in general, we do not control it wanting it or not wanting it makes no difference. This is a weather forum and a lot of the people here like extremes, doesn't mean they wanna see the elderly freeze. 

Irrelevant because I clearly stated the £4 billion cuts from the last government and the predictable impact on social care in the community, not the more recent Tory nonsense, and Corbyn wasn't even a twinkle then as at that time the Tories hadn't hatched a plan to ensure his ascendancy.

Of course it's a weather forum and funnily enough I do realize that many like extremes but I am merely pointing out that during the usual way OTT melodrama that pours forth at the thought of the temp dipping below 0C the consequences should be borne in mind.

[frosty ground]

2 minutes ago, knocker said:

Irrelevant because I clearly stated the £4 billion cuts from the last government and the predictable impact on social care in the community, not the more recent Tory nonsense, and Corbyn wasn't even a twinkle then as at that time the Tories hadn't hatched a plan to ensure his ascendancy.

Of course it's a weather forum and funnily enough I do realize that many like extremes but I am merely pointing out that during the usual way OTT melodrama that pours forth at the thought of the temp dipping below 0C the consequences should be borne in mind.

If you think a long term solution to social care in this country is relevant to social care in this country then fair enougth.

The elderly have been protected the most with above inflation pension increase and winter fuel payments, 

the IFs states by 2019 the social care budget will have grown by 3.9% from its 2009/10 level.

Some cuts have been initiated by councils that priorities in other areas. The same councils that got bigger  grant under Labour for purely political reasons had their grants reduced inline with the rest of the UK.

I'm not going to think about the consequence of something i have no control over, like I don't think about Earthquakes Tsunamis etc etc, Which I also find interesting.

[northwestsnow]

Is this the politics thread?

[knocker]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Is this the politics thread?

Not really although it does have some relevance but it has to be kept in the context that coherent model discussion is also a rare in the MOD thread.

[jvenge]

Maybe my eyes have failed me, but it looks like the ECM Control is showing easterly winds all the way to the north american coast in the unreliable??

[knocker]

13 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

I'm not going to think about the consequence of something i have no control over, like I don't think about Earthquakes Tsunamis etc etc, Which I also find interesting.

But does finding something interesting have to be accompanied by copious amounts of OTT misleading drivel which very likely puts off many who find the meteorological aspects of the current scenario quite fascinating?

Edited February 14, 2018 by knocker

[frosty ground]

2 minutes ago, knocker said:

But does finding something interesting have to be accompanied by copious amounts of OTT misleading drivel which very likely puts off many who find the meteorological aspects of the current scenario quite fascinating?

No, but its a democracy and people don't have to conform to what we think is acceptable.