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whats the odds it goes belly up and 18z is near the mark..

I would hardly be suprised, infact , i'd be very suprised if its not another wild goose chase, even with plenty of pieces in the jigsaw  in place  nowadays it just needs one to fall out of the place and voila- 18zGFS.

Potent north westerly on sunday with 515 DAM here and matt taylor talking of temps of 5degrees in manchester- its not even mid Feb and we are talking 5deg with uppers of -9,  30 years ago i'd have said maxima of 2 or 3 , the games changed, which explains why snow is becoming rarer and rarer.

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48 minutes ago, Ice Man 85 said:

I beg to differ. I'm in t-shirts at 12c...

Another couple of degrees for me. Think 14c is the magic number for me

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eps not good, gefs not good (in the majority).

think i know where this is heading....

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7 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

eps not good, gefs not good (in the majority).

think i know where this is heading....

And lo and behold along comes 00z ECM.

Ive learned my lesons, even when ECM looks fabulous at 168 onwards and even with matt taylor /Exeter constantly telling us of very cold east winds and a BIG SSW underway, until its t96 believe NONE of it..

 

Edited by northwestsnow

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I'm really getting quite concerned that, if the wind from the east doesn't arrive bearing gifts, we may have another Jonestown on our hands.

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Cup of coffee.....check.......turn laptop on.......check.....

Time to sit back and enjoy another day on the model rollercoaster ride searching out for the golden ticket, especially looking forward to the most informative, unbiased, hidden undertone, witty one liner posts, sarcastic and unhelpful musings that frequent this marvellous forum on a daily basis.

 

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49 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

And lo and behold along comes 00z ECM.

Ive learned my lesons, even when ECM looks fabulous at 168 onwards and even with matt taylor /Exeter constantly telling us of very cold east winds and a BIG SSW underway, until its t96 believe NONE of it..

 

I never do, but perhaps of my mild bias, always believe mild and wet

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Interesting Points of View on the BBC,folk believe it or not are writing in to complain that Scotland is now shown as it's true landmass on the new graphics. Apparently they don't deserve this as they only have 6% of the population...right so the Chelsea tractor owner poping out to the shops is in need of the weather forecast more than the family in Scotland having to "pop" out 20/30 miles to the local store?? At times i feel ashamed to be English:angry:

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Interesting ext EPS this morning as it apparently grapples with the retrogression, To accommodate this it re-orientates the Vortex/Iceland trough south in mid Atlantic whilst simultaneously slipping the ridge east be over the UK Thus the Atlantic arena becomes much more amplified. Where will all end I ask myself.

Edited by knocker

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8 minutes ago, markyo said:

Interesting Points of View on the BBC,folk believe it or not are writing in to complain that Scotland is now shown as it's true landmass on the new graphics. Apparently they don't deserve this as they only have 6% of the population...right so the Chelsea tractor owner poping out to the shops is in need of the weather forecast more than the family in Scotland having to "pop" out 20/30 miles to the local store?? At times i feel ashamed to be English:angry:

By these peoples reasoning then the South East should take up half the weather map and sod everyone else!

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Forecast... March cold and snowy for the east side.

West side.. sunny dry and cold... 

Perfect!

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9 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

eps not good, gefs not good (in the majority).

think i know where this is heading....

Tits up?

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Tbh, for Northern Ireland, West Scotland, and some of the ROI, Sunday's charts are probably as good as they'd get from a late Feb easterly (unless a rare 'special' one). -9/-10C 850's and lots of snow showers, 0-2C temps between the showers, sub-zero in heaver showers. Wales/NW England might not do too bad at least on hills, and there will probably be some snow showers to low levels even here in the SW.

Regarding the SSW, some runs have been pretty impressive, but then there's runs like the 00Z ECM and its ensembles which are poor. Also I hear the (admittedly ridiculous) BBC 14 day forecasts use a modified form of the EPS. Well I hope not, it's not moved from 8-9C maxima right to the end for me.

I've also seen some strat animations where the small section vortex gets sucked out over N Europe towards Greenland (to join the Canadian vortex centred slightly west of Greenland).. possible fly in the ointment? I wonder how the 00z ECM models it.  

Then there's Tamera's post last night. If that realism proves to be wise, it seems the teleconnections are just as bad as the models in that they usually find something to go wrong. Anyway, how a low decides to behave upstream often seems to dictate how the pattern evolves (case in point the ECM)

I'm trying not to get sucked in too much. Time to just follow the weather normally. If something does happen, then nice.

Edited by Evening thunder

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26 minutes ago, John88B said:

By these peoples reasoning then the South East should take up half the weather map and sod everyone else!

Yep,sadly certain folk haven't the brains they were born with i'm afraid.

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2 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

And lo and behold along comes 00z ECM.

Ive learned my lesons, even when ECM looks fabulous at 168 onwards and even with matt taylor /Exeter constantly telling us of very cold east winds and a BIG SSW underway, until its t96 believe NONE of it..

 

Like most humans you chose only to remember what you wanted to hear.. like the words 'small chance'. Being on here should have also told you that beyond a week there is no guarantee of anything and large swings can be seen.

...

Although i must admit that i was getting on board with the easterly solution it looks like my prior thoughts remain, namely that for anything of substance to occur we probably need the Canadian vortex to shift across to Scandinavia as it looks as though at closer range it puts too much pressure on any block. This may take a bit longer although the Euro attempts this somewhat at day 10. 

Mildly optimistic but cautious. 

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7 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

Like most humans you chose only to remember what you wanted to hear.. like the words 'small chance'. Being on here should have also told you that beyond a week there is no guarantee of anything and large swings can be seen.

...

Although i must admit that i was getting on board with the easterly solution it looks like my prior thoughts remain, namely that for anything of substance to occur we probably need the Canadian vortex to shift across to Scandinavia as it looks as though at closer range it puts too much pressure on any block. This may take a bit longer although the Euro attempts this somewhat at day 10. 

Mildly optimistic but cautious. 

fair post SB :)

think exeter have been banging the drum for a cold easterly for a while,think im just programmed for downgrades tbh,maybe its just me but all the eye candy ever seems to get is downgraded as we approach landing.

 

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For the UK I'm sensing a rather benign, settled 'on the cold side' start to spring.  That could ultimately be the gift that the SSW brings.

The biggest snow beneficiaries might be Med countries e.g. Italy... a March 2015 easterly scenario could be on the cards for them again.

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40 minutes ago, meh said:

For the UK I'm sensing a rather benign, settled 'on the cold side' start to spring.  That could ultimately be the gift that the SSW brings.

The biggest snow beneficiaries might be Med countries e.g. Italy... a March 2015 easterly scenario could be on the cards for them again.

I doubt it, balmy Southerlies more like 

h850t850eu.png

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56 minutes ago, meh said:

For the UK I'm sensing a rather benign, settled 'on the cold side' start to spring.  That could ultimately be the gift that the SSW brings.

The biggest snow beneficiaries might be Med countries e.g. Italy... a March 2015 easterly scenario could be on the cards for them again.

As likely as anything else.

I think this mornings GFS 06 run is the likely outcome, cold to the end of Feb, and (imo) early March will bring the chance of some 'real' cold from the east, not before.

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Ecm up to its old tricks again I see ,two cold runs than a much less cold run,seems to have been doing that all winter.

dont believe any mega cold Easterly  will verify until it is still showing at t72 

credibility of some experts in this forum and some of the professional weather outlets,are going to go out the window if this mega cold spell fails to materialise,I mean they have going on and on about this SSW event for what feels like forever.

 

Good luck guys,prepare for flack if it goes balls up :rofl::gathering:

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7 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Ecm up to its old tricks again I see ,two cold runs than a much less cold run,seems to have been doing that all winter.

dont believe any mega cold Easterly  will verify until it is still showing at t72 

credibility of some experts in this forum and some of the professional weather outlets,are going to go out the window if this mega cold spell fails to materialise,I mean they have going on and on about this SSW event for what feels like forever.

 

Good luck guys,prepare for flack if it goes balls up :rofl::gathering:

I don't remember reading on here, from the 'experts' as you call them, that a "Mega cold spell"  was guaranteed to impact the UK??

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Thing that also downgrades is high pressure and settled dry weather, when showing in FI, high pressure near us mild or cold, is becoming rarer too in the modern erah

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1 hour ago, DAVID SNOW said:

I don't remember reading on here, from the 'experts' as you call them, that a "Mega cold spell"  was guaranteed to impact the UK??

certain posters have been going on about an easterly outbreak all winter and all we have had is one pathetic attempt this week,you obviously don't frequent this forum much,if you don't know that.

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2 hours ago, SLEETY said:

Ecm up to its old tricks again I see ,two cold runs than a much less cold run,seems to have been doing that all winter.

dont believe any mega cold Easterly  will verify until it is still showing at t72 

credibility of some experts in this forum and some of the professional weather outlets,are going to go out the window if this mega cold spell fails to materialise,I mean they have going on and on about this SSW event for what feels like forever.

 

Good luck guys,prepare for flack if it goes balls up :rofl::gathering:

think some of them, try to gain popularity, and get 'like' rating up, even when they're wrong!

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