Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

[stewfox]

25 minutes ago, EML Network said:

This month I have become really disillusioned with all of the medium to Long Range models and all of the data that is gathered, analysed and interpreted.

 

Because our hopes were built up from mid November and claw clutching is becoming painful.

Model Fatigue , loads of  discussion around non model related stuff (I'm guilty of that).

I just want to come home to 20 pages , i never skip to the end , i just read them like a good book from the first to the last

Now i press update and get one new post in last 25 mins which isn't model related.

GFS 12z give us a ground breaking change and ECM support it tonight , give us a good pub run. 

[knocker]

20 minutes ago, D.V.R said:

Because the majority of us haven't seen snow falling for a few years!

I'd prefer it to snow for the majority of winter...seriously though, why does it annoy you that certain folks would prefer cold and snow? Come summertime, certain folks will be hunting heatwaves (including myself) and I bet you won't come in here moaning about it.

Short answer to that is it doesn't annoy me. I couldn't care less what people's preferences are. What does annoy, and frustrate, me is when these preferences lead to posts which are misleading, very often incorrect, and do not fairly represent the output from the models. And that's not counting the vast number that are not even relevant to the thread

[cheeky_monkey]

12 hours ago, MP-R said:

The 2000s haven't been that bad at all for snow events per winter really... only a handful have been dire.

December 28th 2000 - northerly

March 01st-04th 2001 / December 30th 2001 - northeasterly / northerly

February 26th/27th 2004 - northerly

December 19th 2004 - slider

November 25th 2005 - northerly

March 01st & 12th 2006 - northerly & battleground

February 08th 2007 - battleground

February 02nd-10th 2009 - series of channel lows

December 21st 2009 - snowy westerly

January 2010 - northerlies and battlegrounds

December 2010 - easterlies and northerlies

February 04th/05th 2012 - battleground

January 18th-25th 2013 - battleground and easterlies

These have all produced what I would consider a proper covering. There have of course been other snow events in among all those, just not quite as impressive. Only a handful of winters come to mind wrt total absence of snow.

Also shows the number of ways we can get snow, even at either end of the season. I think that's what makes this month so painstakingly boring so far. I wonder if some of the potent Pm charts in FI will come into fruition. Either that or a battleground followed by an easterly would be nice.

I would say the period 1997 - 2009 where the worst run of winters in my lifetime for cold and snow without a shadow of a doubt...only Feb 09 and Dec 09  saved the decade of 00 from being possibly the worst on record.

[MP-R]

4 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:

I would say the period 1997 - 2009 where the worst run of winters in my lifetime for cold and snow without a shadow of a doubt...only Feb 09 and Dec 09  saved the decade of 00 from being possibly the worst on record.

I would expect nothing less from you given your Canadian experiences. I, however, was born in 1992 and have more or less only lived in the UK. Funnily enough, one of the first winter experiences I can remember clearly was the snow in Feb 1996.

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

17 minutes ago, knocker said:

Short answer to that is it doesn't annoy me. I couldn't care less what people's preferences are. What does annoy, and frustrate, me is when these preferences lead to posts which are misleading, very often incorrect, and do not fairly represent the output from the models. And that's not counting the vast number that are not even relevant to the thread

As people say these days:"Quoted for truth".

[Gowon]

2 minutes ago, knocker said:

Short answer to that is it doesn't annoy me. I couldn't care less what people's preferences are. What does annoy, and frustrate, me is when these preferences lead to posts which are misleading, very often incorrect, and do not fairly represent the output from the models. And that's not counting the vast number that are not even relevant to the thread

You annoy me when you keep posting warm anomaly charts

 Cool Knocks, my comments are just banter.. I have a lot of respect for your knowledge.

[cheeky_monkey]

39 minutes ago, MP-R said:

I would expect nothing less from you given your Canadian experiences. I, however, was born in 1992 and have more or less only lived in the UK. Funnily enough, one of the first winter experiences I can remember clearly was the snow in Feb 1996.

I lived all my life in the UK up to the end of 2009...as the Canadians say  winters 97 -09 sucked big time

[knocker]

1 hour ago, D.V.R said:

You annoy me when you keep posting warm anomaly charts

 Cool Knocks, my comments are just banter.. I have a lot of respect for your knowledge.

Yes that must be annoying......oh.................oh

But on the up side Sid's quite relaxed about it

 

Edited December 16, 2016 by knocker

[feb1991blizzard]

The 30 dayer has downgraded, that must mean that the Long range models are not seeing any SSW potential at all, possibly the final nail in the coffin.

[Gowon]

11 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

The 30 dayer has downgraded, that must mean that the Long range models are not seeing any SSW potential at all, possibly the final nail in the coffin.

I thought Ian F said the blocking to the north was still favourable?! 

[feb1991blizzard]

[Bristawl Si]

2 hours ago, cheeky_monkey said:

I would say the period 1997 - 2009 where the worst run of winters in my lifetime for cold and snow without a shadow of a doubt...only Feb 09 and Dec 09  saved the decade of 00 from being possibly the worst on record.

Agreed

[Bristawl Si]

19 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

The 30 dayer has downgraded, that must mean that the Long range models are not seeing any SSW potential at all, possibly the final nail in the coffin.

Those 30-dayers seem to change everyday - useless like the cfs charts.

[feb1991blizzard]

6 minutes ago, D.V.R said:

I thought Ian F said the blocking to the north was still favourable?! 

I don't think anything likely to deliver deep cold is showing, anyhow, they've downgraded the 30 dayer (NOTHING TO DO WITH IAN I MUST STRESS - HES NOT ON LRF TEAM - HE JUST TELLS US WHAT THE MODELS ARE SHOWING - ITS NOT HIS FORECAST)

Anyway - its now says occasional cold spells when it said cold spells yesterday, whatever 'Occasional cold spells' means in a D16-30 forecast.

[KTtom]

I don't even see the downgrade, just different term used to describe a settled set up with signals for cold spells...I think some over analyse the words too much. 

[cheese]

2 hours ago, MP-R said:

I would expect nothing less from you given your Canadian experiences. I, however, was born in 1992 and have more or less only lived in the UK. Funnily enough, one of the first winter experiences I can remember clearly was the snow in Feb 1996.

I was born in 1987 so I can only base my opinion on the winters that followed, but I would agree with you that the 00s weren't that bad for cold and snow - certainly not here. Definitely wasn't just Feb and Dec 09 that were decent.

Edited December 16, 2016 by cheese

[Ben Lewis]

Urgh, I'm not sure whats worse over on the other thread.... The GFS 12Z or @Frosty. banging on about, how its better then the "boring" weather we are seeing now.

How/Who/What/Why?... Yeah pouring cold rain over Christmas with flooding possible and strong winds with the chance of some snow on mountain tops in the north... 

Each to their own I guess, but for me and a lot of members its DRY all the way... If you cant have cold and snow, this current weather is the next best thing, certainly not buckets of atlantic dross... Jeez!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

yes ben, love Frosty normally, especially summer! usually like the charts he posts, but not lately, he keeps mentioning cold zonal, which is probably my least favourite setup! 

he is only posting what models showing though, so keep it up Frosty!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

been keeping an eye on Thursday 22nd! looks like a shocker washout, very similar to the washout of half term Wednesday 17th Feb '16

from experience this will happen, heavy rain from 8am to 5pm approx, wellies out Midlands folks

[Mapantz]

Bring on some rain and gales! A bracing walk along the Jurassic coast to Dancing ledge during those conditions - great fun!

[stainesbloke]

To be fair to Frosty and others, they are just posting and commenting on charts as they roll out. I must say I would prefer dry weather over Atlantic gales and rain any day but we have hardly had any of the 'usual' Atlantic crap and a spell of it may well change the pattern. Plus clear this infernal cloud!

[Frost HoIIow]

7 hours ago, MP-R said:

I would expect nothing less from you given your Canadian experiences. I, however, was born in 1992 and have more or less only lived in the UK. Funnily enough, one of the first winter experiences I can remember clearly was the snow in Feb 1996.

I'm very ancient being born in 1950 and to be honest UK Winters have always been a bit sh*t. Been some amazing exceptions though. I remember 62/63 very well, had a lot a lot snow in Oldham, my dad digging snow away from the front door so we could get out. Then we had some fantastic deep snows in the late 70's and up to about 1987 there was decent cold and snow falls as well. But then we had a return to the default in 1988 up to 1991 when we had that very snowy Feb, other notable spells Dec 1995, 1996, Dec 2000 etc etc and more recently late 2008 to early 2013.. .....In between all these cold and memorable snow events is what we have now - boring and relatively mild with just the odd brief snow cover in Winter. Fact is we have a maritime climate and not a continental one. Our winds have always been primarily from the west/southwest - never a great direction for cold, if they were from the east/north east in Winter then we would have a modified (still because we are an island & of our proximity to the Atlantic) continental climate.

Edited December 16, 2016 by Frost HoIIow

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 minute ago, stainesbloke said:

To be fair to Frosty and others, they are just posting and commenting on charts as they roll out. I must say I would prefer dry weather over Atlantic gales and rain any day but we have hardly had any of the 'usual' Atlantic crap and a spell of it may well change the pattern. Plus clear this infernal cloud!

agree! but not with post above yours YUK! but we all have weather preferences, that's what makes a forum!

Edited December 16, 2016 by I remember Atlantic 252

[ArHu3]

36 minutes ago, Frost HoIIow said:

 Our winds have always been primarily from the west/southwest - never a great direction for cold, if they were from the east/north east in Winter then we would have a modified (still because we are an island & of our proximity to the Atlantic) continental climate.

I live in the Nettherland but the same applies but I can be so frustating to see how far up north we live and still get this super duperty weather in winter, in the States as far south that here you would almost be in Africa they get some decent cold spells and winters

[Ben Lewis]

2 hours ago, stainesbloke said:

To be fair to Frosty and others, they are just posting and commenting on charts as they roll out. I must say I would prefer dry weather over Atlantic gales and rain any day but we have hardly had any of the 'usual' Atlantic crap and a spell of it may well change the pattern. Plus clear this infernal cloud!

No he isn't. He's harping on about how good cold zonality is compared to our current dry weather. 

We all know that unsettled weather is the likely turn around later next week but I fail to see how we should all be excited and pleased over it, unless cold rain and snow on top of Scottish mountains floats your boat over the Christmas period. 

Like I said,each to their own and I respect that but I don't see how a member banging on about how superb cold zonal is!  - Firstly, "it isn't"... and secondly it isn't "model related"

Also, this pattern change to Atlantic dross and how it may help? its hasn't done diddly squat the past 3 winters, so excuse me if I lack enthusiasm hoping for things to turn cold and snowy from an Atlantic mild & wet lock in!!