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Sick of seeing charts that show great wintry potential at day 10,think we need to bring ceefax back,then we can stare at Lerwick on the 5 day forecasts again for downward temp trends ,used to always come off for us down the N Yorks coast (currently snowstarved this winter😉)

Great forum guys,ill stick to reading over posting. 😁

 

 

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10 hours ago, knocker said:

The ecm this morning has an intense little depression that has formed in the southern quadrant of the main trough to the west 968mb north Irish sea at T132. This could bring heavy rain and gales as it crosses the country in the next 12 hours.

This post makes no sense whatsoever ??

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This thing will last a week, Wales/Stockport and most of Scotland will be under metres of snow,  could have 5 days of continuous heavy snow, suppose only fair though as NW areas missed out on 10th Dec

ECM1-120.GIF?11-0

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1 minute ago, andymusic said:

how so - gfs has a covering progged for the south west too

Could I ask you to save the image and then upload it, rather than linking directly to the said image? All of them you have posted today, have broken the mobile pages that they're on. Also, they will not be the latest images if anyone is reading them tomorrow, or beyond.

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A quick look at this evening's anomalies as the interesting pattern change gets underway.

In the 6-10 range they are all more or less on the same page. Upstream there is a vortex lobe over Russia and a trough in the eastern Pacific with ridging in west North America and a weakening Canadian vortex. Although not strictly upstream the west European ridge is extending into the Arctic and northern Greenland. This is quite critical because one of the reasons that the Canadian vortex is weakening is that a lobe has shot of east via the channel over southern Greenland and the high pressure pushing north in the western Atlantic. The movement east of the lobe to a position north of the UK with the associated trough just to the east of the latter greatly facilitated by a very strong jet running out of the eastern seaboard and around the aforementioned high pressure and south of Greenland and down towards the UK. This portends a north westerly upper flow with some very wintry conditions and temps a fair bit below average over the UK. The usual caveats apply.

ecm_eps_z500a_5d_nh_11.thumb.png.9544ec34662277de7ac779ce4eb0c617.pnggefs_z500a_5d_nh_41.thumb.png.a33d2936fa9d02ac366a0b67fac34850.png610day_03.thumb.gif.a2af41945afd6b92a4da4963ed9230b0.gif

I'm a bit wary about going much further ahead although the is still fair agreement without there being a huge change upstream. The east Pacific ridge has nudged into western North America and the Canadian lobe is getting some credibility back but the upper flow across the Atlantic is flatter and thus more westerly as the amplification diminishes..The percentage play is still unsettled with temps a little below average.

gefs_z500a_5d_nh_61.thumb.png.e2b10ea8eea88be97aba27b150adb919.png814day_03.thumb.gif.5503e7b3a1637edd2d591dda9e3a5a73.gif

Edited by knocker
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31 minutes ago, knocker said:

Wind an important factor early next week

ecm_mslp_uv850_natl_5.thumb.png.eeef436d96c7ccbe9bdeafa2676e8d55.pngecm_mslp_uv850_natl_6.thumb.png.7e57540a7119b0a5512f6645818dab98.png

Do we enjoy the next 3 days and run for cover? Yesterday was lovely

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13 minutes ago, Matthew. said:

Do we enjoy the next 3 days and run for cover? Yesterday was lovely

Let's put it this way. the Last couple of days have been great (a quick view down the local country park and Sidney's domain) but a transition over the weekend to colder and windier conditions is a certainty.

bridge.thumb.jpg.b37abdc7d41a8d370c900ae372e78393.jpg

Edited by knocker
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The ext EPS means seem to promoting the idea of the lobe/trough slipping east and promoting what would probable be a temporary ridging by the Azores and thus the temps approaching near average once more. Perhaps an indication that the intrusion by the rogue chunk of the vortex will be just a blip. Just saying.

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I really don’t see anything very exciting for many next week. Yes, the favoured spots will do well, but if you look at the south, temperatures will only be a little below normal. Yes, if we get showers, the temperatures will drop, but it’s hardly looking like Narnia as many in the MOD thread would lead you to believe 😂

Edited by CK1981
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Well Monday night through Tuesday is looking like fun here - this is what Winter is all about for a snow lover! Frequent lightning and blizzards also? Oh go on then! :yahoo:

 

8229BB67-9808-4D65-9099-8BF4D899E056.png

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One has to say the latest EC46 update is encouraging with another pattern change towards the end of January and the first fortnight of Feb. as the Azores HP becomes more influential with the weather becoming more settled and temps around normal

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One of these days I'm going to move to Favoured Spots.

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Interesting GFS 6z run with lots of interest in the mid term. Not sure about FI with the way Europe is modelled.

Edited by prolongedSnowLover

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Some wintry charts beginning to show within reliable timeframe.

But, I really can't see this first push of cold air being more potent than last Decembers!

-8/-10 850's in December

-5 850's next week (and these will almost certainly be moderated)

Yes, there will be heavy snow showers in Scotland, Northern Ireland, NW England and North Wales especially locations above 200 metres.

But further South surely just cold rain, hail or sleet with temperatures around 5c/7c?

Granted, it will 'feel' really cold everywhere because of the wind chill.

After that, potent North Easterly or Easterly, I anticipate further heartbreak! 

Really hope that I'm wrong!

 

Edited by snowblizzard
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I think by next Friday, it will be one degree less than it currently is, here in Somerset. 

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1 hour ago, snowblizzard said:

Some wintry charts beginning to show within reliable timeframe.

But, I really can't see this first push of cold air being more potent than last Decembers!

-8/-10 850's in December

-5 850's next week (and these will almost certainly be moderated)

Yes, there will be heavy snow showers in Scotland, Northern Ireland, NW England and North Wales especially locations above 200 metres.

But further South surely just cold rain, hail or sleet with temperatures around 5c/7c?

Granted, it will 'feel' really cold everywhere because of the wind chill.

After that, potent North Easterly or Easterly, I anticipate further heartbreak! 

Really hope that I'm wrong!

 

Last December was a maritime Arctic outbreak next week is a Maritime polar outbreak,that’s why the hpa is higher,big difference in the air masses.

Amazes me a certain poster in the MOD doesn’t realise that,when they keep saying not as cold as the December snowy spell.Different air-mass that’s why :acute:

 

 

 

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@Bring Back1962-63 (and forum administrator ) regarding the font size, those big fonts look horrible on mobile (especially in portrait) but good on wide-screen laptop, in fact the normal font looks horrible on wide-screen the default font looks horrible and sentences are way too long, running almost from edge to edge with way too little onscreen margin. But I guess most people read on mobile  nowadays... 

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Who would have believed it. The chunk of the vortex turns into a massive slider. Oh my sainted aunt.

gfs_z500a_natl_19.thumb.png.6ee50ee5c884e35bc00d3b38363d884d.png

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3 hours ago, ArHu3 said:

@Bring Back1962-63 (and forum administrator ) regarding the font size, those big fonts look horrible on mobile (especially in portrait) but good on wide-screen laptop, in fact the normal font looks horrible on wide-screen the default font looks horrible and sentences are way too long, running almost from edge to edge with way too little onscreen margin. But I guess most people read on mobile  nowadays... 

Well I certainly don't, I have a real phone, Nokia 6310i

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As previously stated, the Azure’s HP becomes more influential later on in the month 😮😲

CE58204B-B83D-43C6-9E04-2ADE4492C547.png

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Well that wind next week is going to feel cold but still can’t believe it will feel colder than the east wind earlier this week

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4 hours ago, knocker said:

Who would have believed it. The chunk of the vortex turns into a massive slider. Oh my sainted aunt.

gfs_z500a_natl_19.thumb.png.6ee50ee5c884e35bc00d3b38363d884d.png

I suppose there’s nothing we can do about it as it’s in the reliable:( p9 doesn’t look too bad for a weeks time

085A0C71-38B6-4C12-88A6-460B0DB258EC.jpeg

Edited by Matthew.

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BBC Weather - There might be a small amount of snow in the forecast for next week?

Edited by snowblizzard
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Looking at past developing lows tracking across UK in cold PM flows

Burns' Day storm of 1990

NOAA_1_1990012500_2.png

20th December 1993, gave a snowfall across north Wales, north Midlands, southern parts of northern England

NOAA_1_1993122018_2.png

 

Late January 1995, this gave a big snowfall across parts of Yorkshire, Interesting that the 850hpas don't look that chilly over the Yorkshire region

NOAA_1_1995012600_2.png

2nd to 3rd March 1995 gave a snowfall across, Wales, Midlands and East Anglia

NOAA_1_1995030300_2.png

Early January 1998

NOAA_1_1998010412_2.pngNOAA_1_1998010512_2.png

16th December 2011

NOAA_1_2011121600_2.png

As recent as this time last year

CFSR_1_2017011212_1.png

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