Jump to content
Cold?
Local
Radar
Snow?

Model Moans, Ramps and Banter


Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Severe storms and heavy snow
  • Location: Hull

    I’d love to see signs of a screaming easterly as much as anyone but even with this more mobile pattern, the weather is being far more interesting than the last few years. Looks like some good opportunities for some surprises over the next week or so. 

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Spotted a post you think may be an issue? Please help the team by reporting it.
    • Replies 12k
    • Created
    • Last Reply

    Top Posters In This Topic

    Top Posters In This Topic

    Popular Posts

    This is wrong on so many levels...

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

    I've posted a recent article by Mike Lockwood, Ed Hawkins, et al, in the new research thread but as it's Xmas I thought it of interest to post it in here for your delectation as well. (the reference to spinning and this area is of course coincidental)

    Frost fairs, sunspots and the Little Ice Age

    Quote

    Where spin doctors, politicians and newspaper editors understand well that a name alters how something is perceived, scientists know that a name does not change the reality one iota. By virtue of the name awarded to it, the “Little Ice Age” has been associated with full ice ages. The name Little Ice Age has also become almost synonymous with the Maunder minimum in solar activity in the minds of many people. Hence it has even become possible to build semantic arguments that imply there is some sort of link between solar activity and ice ages – and evidence for major control of climate by solar activity is often offered in the form of the occurrence of frost fairs on the Thames in London (figure 1). This paper discusses the true relationships, or lack of them, between these different events.

    https://academic.oup.com/astrogeo/article/58/2/2.17/3074082

    • Like 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Salzburger Sportwelt Lungau/ Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Salzburger Sportwelt Lungau/ Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
    20 minutes ago, knocker said:

    Something to warm the cockles, and the chestnuts

     

    Just come back from Vasteras. Was there for Christmas and hardly a snow patch in sight. Lakes still not frozen and ground just a slushy mess. One of the mildest Christmas period on record for Southern Sweden. Swedes not happy and longing for winters past just as depicted on the painting. 

    C

    • Like 4
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    metoffice pretty much writing off january now aside from a few short colder interludes.

    Just roll on june so i can see what greenland blocking looks like!! :yahoo:

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Castlereagh hills. 160m asl.
  • Location: Castlereagh hills. 160m asl.

    And that’s likely to change again ! I pay no attention to their long range forecasts as they change every other day. There are literally pointless 

    Edited by Neiller22
    • Like 5
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Wakefield - God's County
  • Location: Wakefield - God's County

    Well..missed out on the snow..again!!????..Yorkshire just not in the running this year..roll on summer!??

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
    1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

    metoffice pretty much writing off january now aside from a few short colder interludes.

    Just roll on june so i can see what greenland blocking looks like!! :yahoo:

    Now come on nws you  know very well what Greenland blocking looks like. I mean there was good example on the 06 :whistling:

    gfs_z500a_natl_40.thumb.png.72f01836fc6bc68ff23430070168de6d.png

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
    1 hour ago, Neiller22 said:

    And that’s likely to change again ! I pay no attention to their long range forecasts as they change every other day. There are literally pointless 

    Yes they are just as bad as any other long range forecasts,it’s still dec,so writing off jan already because of what the met office say is rather OTt:gathering: :rofl::db:

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
    6 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

    metoffice pretty much writing off january now aside from a few short colder interludes.

    Just roll on june so i can see what greenland blocking looks like!! :yahoo:

    Roll on April! wanna see wet sleety snow

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
    Quote

    MODEL FLIPS

    Can't get rid of the quote box so I've used it as a heading for my post! :)

    Often hear about model flips.....but when was the last memorable one?  And I mean when an op and control run with 95% or more supoort from the ensembles failed to evolve within a time scale of up to five days?  I've often heard it said that Scandi highs can pop up out of nowhere and much as I'd like to believe this, I can't recall there being model flips that have ended up bringing us one.  Though I daresay there have been a few that have dropped on in a short timescale...thinking of THAT ECM.

     

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
    7 hours ago, knocker said:

    I've posted a recent article by Mike Lockwood, Ed Hawkins, et al, in the new research thread but as it's Xmas I thought it of interest to post it in here for your delectation as well. (the reference to spinning and this area is of course coincidental)

    Frost fairs, sunspots and the Little Ice Age

    https://academic.oup.com/astrogeo/article/58/2/2.17/3074082

    Thanks Knocker - great article. As a historian by trade I like this kind of analysis. Puts historical hyperbole into perspective.

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

    Lol already talk of winter over we’re not even a third through yet and the first half of March can be wintry even in the south for parts of Scotland wintry weather is still possible up to May!

    this winter does not have that vibe winters which have preceded it has. 

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    1 minute ago, Daniel* said:

    Lol already talk of winter over we’re not even a third through yet and the first half of March can be wintry even in the south for parts of Scotland wintry weather is still possible up to May!

    this winter does not have that vibe winters which have preceded it has. 

    It's not been to bad a start Dan but I fear it will end up  being a bit of a dogs knacker of a season 

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
    11 minutes ago, Mokidugway said:

    It's not been to bad a start Dan but I fear it will end up  being a bit of a dogs knacker of a season 

    Sometimes it's when the models are showing very little promise that proper winter weather ends up being delivered.

    Got my own suspicion something a lot more significant than we have seen for a few winters will start falling into shape on or just after the 10th January.  It might even qualify for  "model flip" as per my previous post question!

    Last year it seemed there was promise at T240 in nearly every single run.... never mind tomorrow never comes, it was T240 that never cames then! 

     

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Hernia Bay
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy Snow
  • Location: Hernia Bay

    Even with 528 dam line over us Pretty sad state of affairs for East Kent a few random snowflakes in an otherwise cold, dank, rainy day. An easterly seems to be the only champion for our cause for us in the south east Come to expect it these days. P**s poor 

    Edited by snowfish1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Austevoll Kommune North of 60 deg N
  • Weather Preferences: Cold with a metre of lying snow
  • Location: Austevoll Kommune North of 60 deg N
    8 hours ago, knocker said:

    I've posted a recent article by Mike Lockwood, Ed Hawkins, et al, in the new research thread but as it's Xmas I thought it of interest to post it in here for your delectation as well. (the reference to spinning and this area is of course coincidental)

    Frost fairs, sunspots and the Little Ice Age

    https://academic.oup.com/astrogeo/article/58/2/2.17/3074082

    I'm confused ( that's easy I hear you say). I was taught that if there were three major ice sheets then it was an ice age and we are living in an interglacial that's due to end shortly.  We've been in the current ice age for the last 2.4 million years give or take. Little Ice Ages, as the paper points out, are little blips on the way.

    Has the definition of an ice age changed whilst I wasn't looking?

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Shaw… lancs
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW… XTREME SNOW n COLD
  • Location: Shaw… lancs

    I love this site and it's forums... but there's a few things that get my BILLY ( goat for those that don't understand, lol )... those who say the reason we don't get winter's like we used to, because of global warming!! Haha, it's not real... even the scientists argue and doubt each other and if it is true ( yawn ) didn't it peak about 12yrs ago, again according to the scientists?? We went nearly 25/30yrs with hardly any SNOW, with one scientist saying before 2007 will we SNOW in UK/ EUROPE again, LMAO what an an idiot... it's what the weather does, what history we can read about weather... like on here, tells us it's patterns but since 2007 we've had a good run as for cold n snow... which isn't to bad and 2009, 2010, 2017 so far seem like the winter's of 70s... time will tell

    2nd... those who say on MOD, that the next 2wks are set in stone... what a load of codswallop, what a chart shows today, say for 5days away if it's 75% correct... I'll eat my hat but it won't be... like the beginning of last wk around the 19th, wasn't showing this cold spell that's here till Saturday at the least... every chart needs to be taken with a pinch of salt... if a chart shows something of interest, I'd say for 3days away and no more... compare the 2 and the difference will be more than 50%... before wkd gone, my neck of woods was in the sweet spot for snow, by Xmas day... it was Midlands and we got sleet at the most, sigh... people can't take each chart as being right... just a thought

    And 3rdly... those who say WINTER is over ( mostly mildies ), pathetic... we are hardly into it, so how can it be over... who knows what the next few wks/months will bring... just remember like my name, law of averages say records will be broken, whether COLD or mild

    P.s... on global warming, yawn... I've mentioned this before, a professor John Hanson of NASA in the 70s called for global cooling and by the 80s was saying global warming?? Strange... also what's strange is, does global warming only affect EUROPE... what about North America, must be global cooling over there!! And we've not had a summer like 76, if my memory is right went from the beginning of May till the beginning of October... nothing like it since

    P.s.s... those who believe in GW... need to check what the yanks do with haarp or harrp lol... that's more believable 

    Edited by Law of averages!!
    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
    9 hours ago, Catacol said:

    Thanks Knocker - great article. As a historian by trade I like this kind of analysis. Puts historical hyperbole into perspective.

    If you are interested in the historical perspective I can highly recommend a book by Geoffrey Parker, Global Crisis: War, Climate Change and Catastrophe in the Seventeenth Century. A truly impressive tome and the research detail is staggering.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch

    well looking at the over night updates all im saying its testing  it might  snow; it might get very stormy.,rain. !!!  bar the  kitchen  senk!! ps been  talking to my friends  over  the pond some had 4 foot of snow  over night and expecting another  2 foot by sunday!!

    Edited by tinybill
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
    4 hours ago, knocker said:

    If you are interested in the historical perspective I can highly recommend a book by Geoffrey Parker, Global Crisis: War, Climate Change and Catastrophe in the Seventeenth Century. A truly impressive tome and the research detail is staggering.

    Yes - Parker’s research is well known. I did a bit on the General Crisis Theory of the 17th Century while at university... the idea that climate change can affect politics, economics and society directly is highly relevant within the 21st century context.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Pontardawe, Neath-Port Talbot 78m asl
  • Location: Pontardawe, Neath-Port Talbot 78m asl
    11 hours ago, Law of averages!! said:

    I love this site and it's forums... but there's a few things that get my BILLY ( goat for those that don't understand, lol )... those who say the reason we don't get winter's like we used to, because of global warming!! Haha, it's not real... even the scientists argue and doubt each other and if it is true ( yawn ) didn't it peak about 12yrs ago, again according to the scientists?? We went nearly 25/30yrs with hardly any SNOW, with one scientist saying before 2007 will we SNOW in UK/ EUROPE again, LMAO what an an idiot... it's what the weather does, what history we can read about weather... like on here, tells us it's patterns but since 2007 we've had a good run as for cold n snow... which isn't to bad and 2009, 2010, 2017 so far seem like the winter's of 70s... time will tell

    P.s... on global warming, yawn... I've mentioned this before, a professor John Hanson of NASA in the 70s called for global cooling and by the 80s was saying global warming?? Strange... also what's strange is, does global warming only affect EUROPE... what about North America, must be global cooling over there!! And we've not had a summer like 76, if my memory is right went from the beginning of May till the beginning of October... nothing like it since

    P.s.s... those who believe in GW... need to check what the yanks do with haarp or harrp lol... that's more believable 

    What a strange statement, 99% percent of scientists agree global warming is real, and it impacts will be global, have you not seen the arctic sea ice records?!! 

     

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
    4 minutes ago, beatpete said:

    What a strange statement, 99% percent of scientists agree global warming is real, and it impacts will be global, have you not seen the arctic sea ice records?!! 

     

    Im not going to stress my views in totality on GW-AGENDA.

    Other than to say i think climate change should/would be a more suitable title.

    Again enough said...

    Im quite passionate about this particular-agenda!!!!!

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Guest
    This topic is now closed to further replies.
    ×
    ×
    • Create New...