Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

[stainesbloke]

6 hours ago, cyclonic happiness said:

Erm, do you mind keeping your political opinions out of the models threads, I have plenty to say about remoaners, but I hold my tongue because I don't see the need now we've won the out vote!

It was just an off the cuff comment/joke in a model related post. No harm done.

[cheese]

2 hours ago, cyclonic happiness said:

Depends how many time a day you hear it, it been boring for months now

 

Ignore it then. Problem solved. 

[cyclonic happiness]

2 hours ago, cheese said:

Ignore it then. Problem solved. 

Maybe, but then if it keeps getting said to you, over and over again. Maybe the other person would be better to hold their tongue?

[Mokidugway]

Controversy and I'm not involved , tut tut 

[stainesbloke]

34 minutes ago, cyclonic happiness said:

Maybe, but then if it keeps getting said to you, over and over again. Maybe the other person would be better to hold their tongue?

Nah. I love my country too much to accept a decision based on complete lies, fantasy and xenophobia and I'm bored with being labelled a 'traitor'. But this isn't the place to discuss that, so I apologise and will leave it here.

 

 

[Day 10]

39 minutes ago, Mokidugway said:

Controversy and I'm not involved , tut tut 

Did you put an end to Zimmergate then over tea & biscuits? 

[Mokidugway]

3 minutes ago, Day 10 said:

Did you put an end to Zimmergate then over tea & biscuits? 

Yes I've cancelled the Ukrainian gentlemen as their services aren't  required , all happy now 

[Day 10]

3 minutes ago, Mokidugway said:

Yes I've cancelled the Ukrainian gentlemen as their services aren't  required , all happy now 

Lol that's good, onto the next gate...

[Mokidugway]

10 minutes ago, Day 10 said:

Lol that's good, onto the next gate...

Im shure there will be many , sorry mods 

[daz_4]

I think we will need a miracle to get something noteworthy in December. We are close to the point where we can bin the rest of the month.

[Walsall Wood Snow]

Ok so the reliable outlook isn't looking good, but please someone tell me this doesn't make the rest of the whole Winter season a write off. After all aren't the posters with the most teleconnective knowledge telling us that around the New Year is the period to look out for? To b e fair I'm sure that isn't some sort of X marks the spot moment and there's room for that possibility to occur even up to a week or more after then. Mind you if we don't start seeing signs of a cold spell showing up soon I'm going to start to assume that this 'around the New Year cold spell' isn't happening this year. Not that that means there's no prospect of any cold snaps or even spells further on into the Winter I'm sure, as there's no way we know how February will turn out weather wise yet for example. Nevertheless I can't grumble too much about how this Winter plays out from here on in, as it has already provided a decent snowy spell here, which no Winter has done since 2012/13 so for that alone it's already pretty ok really. Though I appreciate that isn't the case everywhere, and I'm with everybody in hoping that something comes along to give the lot of us some snowy joy at some point.

Actually now over on the MOD thread they're saying that the latest GFS run ends well for coldies, so we can put our despondency away again .

Edited December 17, 2017 by Walsall Wood Snow

[That ECM]

There's not great deal to get excited about from a coldies perspective from the output at the moment. The met have very low confidence moving into the middle of Jan, which reads better than them suggesting they have no idea.

 

so we can only wait and see what happens, could it flip to cold? Of course. Could it be high pressure dominated? Of course. Could it be cold zonal? Of course. Could a butterfly fart in Brazil and everything changes? In this current pattern I would like to think that someone is feeding them baked beans.

[danm]

Well despite the milder outlook, this has been a pretty good start to winter. 

Down here in the northern suburbs of London/SW Essex we’ve had more snow this winter so far than the last 4 winters combined. 

We’ve probably also had more frosty/icy mornings so far this winter than the whole of last winter! 

[Froze were the Days]

16 minutes ago, danm said:

Well despite the milder outlook, this has been a pretty good start to winter. 

Down here in the northern suburbs of London/SW Essex we’ve had more snow this winter so far than the last 4 winters combined. 

We’ve probably also had more frosty/icy mornings so far this winter than the whole of last winter! 

That's not saying a lot in terms of snowfall...as generally over the last 4 winters here in Essex we've had 1 slight dusting which lasted a couple of hours. As for frosts last January was actually quite frosty, certainly more hard frosts than this month.

[northwestsnow]

Getting that deja vu feeling again!!

Back to deep Fantasy island looking for scraps of hope.

Think i will find myself a nice comfy pew in this thread for a while(probably quite a while)

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

Getting that deja vu feeling again!!

Back to deep Fantasy island looking for scraps of hope.

Think i will find myself a nice comfy pew in this thread for a while(probably quite a while)

TMW typical setup, especially approaching January, find Jan and Feb the mildest, wettest months

Easterlies will arrive late March, and dominate April and May

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

TMW typical setup, especially approaching January, find Jan and Feb the mildest, wettest months

Easterlies will arrive late March, and dominate April and May

Yup-

The wheels have fallen off , i wouldn't be at all suprised if the above comes to pass.

Greeny high in April, a brief pause then back to northern blocking come june / july.

The only positive is December has been a cold month IMBY with quite a few frosts and snow cover...

[I remember Atlantic 252]

3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Yup-

The wheels have fallen off , i wouldn't be at all suprised if the above comes to pass.

Greeny high in April, a brief pause then back to northern blocking come june / july.

The only positive is December has been a cold month IMBY with quite a few frosts and snow cover...

You may see a few more flakes, when the westerlies dominate from Xmas Day, you have elevation and northerly advantage, colder flow behind the systems may give snow to north high ground, before next system comes storming in

Jan 2018 will be remembered for sheer zonality, and could break records of the amount of 'named' storms

[northwestsnow]

11 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

You may see a few more flakes, when the westerlies dominate from Xmas Day, you have elevation and northerly advantage, colder flow behind the systems may give snow to north high ground, before next system comes storming in

Jan 2018 will be remembered for sheer zonality, and could break records of the amount of 'named' storms

Its all very predictable and depressing!

Doesn't seem to matter if its el NIno / La Nina/ eQBO / wQBO / +PNA/ -PNA

It all equates to a above average winter and a cold spring.

Absolute toss for the UK-

Its not just us the, look as far east as Poland and even the ukraine- 

Even they look like having a green christmas.

Almost unheard of 30 years ago...

Dont want to post too much about this as it upsets some people but the changes in European winters- even central/east europe is staggering!!

They will eventually go cold into January, as will greece etc as the euro high does its thing and all the arctic cold will spill down the eastern flank.

 

Edited December 18, 2017 by northwestsnow

[I remember Atlantic 252]

been here so many times, the zonality normally lasts 5-6 weeks at least, that's Jan written off

Ay true, don't give a damn what the QBO, El Nino is etc, SSW might happen after GFS 384, Pacific ridge at 300+, just pure straw clutch, mild air/low pressure wins here

[northwestsnow]

4 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

been here so many times, the zonality normally lasts 5-6 weeks at least, that's Jan written off

Ay true, don't give a damn what the QBO, El Nino is etc, SSW might happen after GFS 384, Pacific ridge at 300+, just pure straw clutch, mild air/low pressure wins here

As i said , poland and ukraine very rarely had a 'green' christmas 30 years ago, they will get the cold in january as the euro high builds downstream and the cold spills out of the arctic down the eastern flank...

Don't need a degree to work that one out, seen it too many times in the last 30 years.

Edited December 18, 2017 by northwestsnow

[TEITS]

Personally im not disappointed because during our last cold spell I did say the return of milder weather is likely to continue into the New year. Many dismissed me and said the milder spell would be a short blip due to background signals.

Let me tell you about background signals i.e Teleconnections. I have the greatest respect for GP, Tamara but am sceptical of the use of these for a tiny Island such as ours. My approach is simple, if these background signals do not appear in the model output then im not interested. This opinion of mine is simply due to many years of following the model output and a certain forecaster called Joe always predicting an ice age around the corner for Europe!

[Nick L]

We've reached desperate times when NAVGEM is being dredged up for comfort. 

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, TEITS said:

Personally im not disappointed because during our last cold spell I did say the return of milder weather is likely to continue into the New year. Many dismissed me and said the milder spell would be a short blip due to background signals.

Let me tell you about background signals i.e Teleconnections. I have the greatest respect for GP, Tamara but am sceptical of the use of these for a tiny Island such as ours. My approach is simple, if these background signals do not appear in the model output then im not interested. This opinion of mine is simply due to many years of following the model output and a certain forecaster called Joe always predicting an ice age around the corner for Europe!

Agreed- i too have the utmost respect for them too.

There is nothing out to la la land that suggests any blocking highs anywhere near close enough to benefit the UK- looking at the 850s on ECM the euro high is going to pump mild southerlies all the way to eastern ukraine and even furher east perhaps as far east as Moscow!!! All the while the cold is building across Canada and Greenland.

Personally i think its a stable pattern- and i'm already thinking we are stuffed into early january and possibly beyond.

[northwestsnow]

5 minutes ago, Nick L said:

We've reached desperate times when NAVGEM is being dredged up for comfort. 

Haha !!

Its not been a bad December nick, but i think the next few weeks minimum is going to be very very different..

basically without a SSW i think we are well and truly screwed- and with Glosea losing that signal i wouldn't be at all suprised if the meto long ranger switched , soon.

Edited December 18, 2017 by northwestsnow