Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

[draztik]

1 minute ago, Ice Man 85 said:

You're wasting your breath Draztik; they *really* don't care. They aren't content with a spell of settled but *warm* weather (our average temps or so), they want oppressive, humid muck and it looks like they're going to get their wish.

Time and time again us cold lovers have been denied cool autumns and cold winters, by the Azores High. Now its going to deny us bearable temperatures. I really wish the bloody thing didn't exist.

 

Well, it hasn't happened yet... which is why I edited my post. We have been here before, where the models have taken us places that never bear fruit. And looking at the EPS surface t2m, temps aren't exactly 'heatwave' like... certainly not out to day 10.

Praying we don't see a repeat of July 2013 - that was a god awful month. 

[draztik]

6 minutes ago, Ice Man 85 said:

Its looking like I'll have a breakdown before the weather does going from those awful charts.

 

[Ice Man 85]

4 minutes ago, draztik said:

Well, it hasn't happened yet... which is why I edited my post. We have been here before, where the models have taken us places that never bear fruit. And looking at the EPS surface t2m, temps aren't exactly 'heatwave' like... certainly not out to day 10.

Praying we don't see a repeat of July 2013 - that was a god awful month. 

Those times didn't have backing from the anomalies etc. Still, one can hope.

GFS 18z *slightly* cooler than the 12z but trend is still there. It does start to cool down from the NW on the 24th though. So maybe there's a light at the end of the tunnel. The night is darkest just before the dawn as the old cliche says. The ensembles don't yet agree with it either.

Edited July 11, 2017 by Ice Man 85
more to add.

[draztik]

Ice Man, great to have you here on the boards. You are a breath of fresh air - and remind me of Shedhead, an old member who used to post back in the day!! I hope you stick around, your humour can undoubtedly help us all cope if this 'heatwave' comes about. 

[Ice Man 85]

1 minute ago, draztik said:

Ice Man, great to have you here on the boards. You are a breath of fresh air - and remind me of Shedhead, an old member who used to post back in the day!! I hope you stick around, your humour can undoubtedly help us all cope if this 'heatwave' comes about. 

If they have internet access in Ashworth hospital, then I'll do my best.

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

15 minutes ago, Ice Man 85 said:

You're wasting your breath Draztik; they *really* don't care. They aren't content with a spell of settled but *warm* weather (our average temps or so), they want oppressive, humid muck and it looks like they're going to get their wish.

Time and time again us cold lovers have been denied cool autumns and cold winters, by the Azores High. Now its going to deny us bearable temperatures. I really wish the bloody thing didn't exist. Its looking like I'll have a breakdown before the weather does going from those awful charts.

You do moan a lot. Before bashing away on your next whinge about a bit of heat, pause a thought for those living in hotter climates who have to endure highs of 45 to 50C every day all summer long then consider just how lucky you are living in Skelmersdale  If a few days of 'humid muck' is too much then buy air conditioning or a fan. Clearly your a weather watcher so then surely if you can see a heatwave coming before most people then why not prepare yourself for a melting?

[Ice Man 85]

Just now, 40*C said:

You do moan a lot. Before bashing away on your next whinge about a bit of heat, pause a thought for those living in hotter climates who have to endure highs of 45 to 50C every day all summer long then consider just how lucky you are living in Skelmersdale  If a few days of 'humid muck' is too much then buy air conditioning or a fan. Clearly your a weather watcher so then surely if you can see a heatwave coming before most people then why not prepare yourself for a melting?

I have a fan. It makes sod all difference when your room is boiling. And who said anything about a "few days"? Looking longer than that to me.

Each time I've "spared a thought for those in hotter climates", I've been shot down or ridiculed. Won't be doing that anymore. I moan because heat makes me physically ill and depressed. Sorry if that depresses you; this is a "moaning" thread after all.

[DAVID SNOW]

Much 'better' GFS00z, just a couple of rounds to get through, before it throws in the towel.

[mushymanrob]

noaa 8-14 day chart has now shifted to support the ridge between the azores and scandinavia across the uk.... ITS ON!

[cheese]

I don't know why the heat haters were getting so despondent - the charts yesterday didn't look particularly hot to me, just high pressure dominated, with no doubt plenty of fine, sunny, pleasantly warm (rather than hot) weather to enjoy.

Edited July 12, 2017 by cheese

[Evening thunder]

9 hours ago, Ice Man 85 said:

Its all relative, Evening Thunder.

My income does not stretch to an investment in aircon nor the electricity bill that would arise from using it. And I cannot think of a summer that has stayed in the low 20s with high pressure in recent years. Its either damp and humid or hot and humid. Never pleasant.

I was under the impression that you could get portable units for under £100 which may at least keep one room (e.g. the bedroom) cool, and if you only use it for the few times it gets hot, it may be worth it.. takes some of the dread out of seeing those hot model runs at least.

Though if your income won't stretch that far fair enough.

Tbh, I find heat a bit uncomfortable at times as do my family.. but I also want some interest and decent seasonality which outweighs that, and find benefits too like warm evenings. Having said that it's quite rate to get 30C+ here.
 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

27 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

noaa 8-14 day chart has now shifted to support the ridge between the azores and scandinavia across the uk.... ITS ON!

Good, 'cos this dampness and rain affects my chest

[draztik]

7 hours ago, DAVID SNOW said:

Much 'better' GFS00z, just a couple of rounds to get through, before it throws in the towel.

Interesting. I had a feeling after watching the GFS output - 0z and now 6z, that a few apples starting to fall off the cart. Not sure this 'fine period' is nailed or will be as sustained as some seem to think. Lots of model watching to take in before said period 'arrives'. 

GFS 6z (temp anom days 8-13), trend setter or rogue agent... time will tell. Tho, a beating to any heatwaves being dreamed about in the other thread.

Edited July 12, 2017 by draztik

[Ice Man 85]

8 hours ago, cheese said:

I don't know why the heat haters were getting so despondent - the charts yesterday didn't look particularly hot to me, just high pressure dominated, with no doubt plenty of fine, sunny, pleasantly warm (rather than hot) weather to enjoy.

Depends on your definition of "warm". The GFS and ECM raw temps could easily result in upper 20s in the north and low 30s in the south. That's hot in my opinion, and completely unwanted.

[Ice Man 85]

8 hours ago, Evening thunder said:

I was under the impression that you could get portable units for under £100 which may at least keep one room (e.g. the bedroom) cool, and if you only use it for the few times it gets hot, it may be worth it.. takes some of the dread out of seeing those hot model runs at least.

Though if your income won't stretch that far fair enough.

Tbh, I find heat a bit uncomfortable at times as do my family.. but I also want some interest and decent seasonality which outweighs that, and find benefits too like warm evenings. Having said that it's quite rate to get 30C+ here.
 

Air coolers are around the price you stated. They're pretty pants though and only blow out air from a water tank (which in hot weather doesn't last long). Air conditioners (which is what you would really need) are upwards of £300 going from amazon at least.

[Ice Man 85]

2 hours ago, draztik said:

Interesting. I had a feeling after watching the GFS output - 0z and now 6z, that a few apples starting to fall off the cart. Not sure this 'fine period' is nailed or will be as sustained as some seem to think. Lots of model watching to take in before said period 'arrives'. 

GFS 6z (temp anom days 8-13), trend setter or rogue agent... time will tell. Tho, a beating to any heatwaves being dreamed about in the other thread.

0z and 6z showing a breakdown early next week akin to the 18z. 0z shows a lesser breakdown but no rebuild. 6z shows a sharp breakdown with a rebuild at the end of the week. 0z likely more practical.

Could be me if the heat lovers get their way:

 

[Ice Man 85]

2 minutes ago, Singularity said:

best keep those fingers crossed!

Mine are crossed that it doesn't happen. Or at the very least doesn't happen as potently as most of you would like. There's nothing pleasant about upper 20s c

[Frosty.]

8 minutes ago, Ice Man 85 said:

Mine are crossed that it doesn't happen. Or at the very least doesn't happen as potently as most of you would like. There's nothing pleasant about upper 20s c

You could always try telling us what the various models are showing instead of moaning all the time..just an idea!

[Ice Man 85]

1 minute ago, Frosty. said:

That's more like it

Now I just pray to god that I'm overestimating.

[Frosty.]

14 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

The EC-GFS have been trending to a ridge developing but much less so with NOAA, in the area needed to give settled and probably some warmth, how far, how much, is unclear even with EC-GFS so far.

And yet the met office outlook / extended sounds really good for summery weather to return for a considerable period..hmmm interesting.

Edited July 12, 2017 by Frosty.

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

47 minutes ago, Ice Man 85 said:

Mine are crossed that it doesn't happen. Or at the very least doesn't happen as potently as most of you would like. There's nothing pleasant about upper 20s c

Current predictions and variables across the continent are flirting with the idea of a big heat wave in Europe for August. You better cross them fingers tight we don't lock into something SE'ly.

[Ice Man 85]

18 minutes ago, 40*C said:

Current predictions and variables across the continent are flirting with the idea of a big heat wave in Europe for August. You better cross them fingers tight we don't lock into something SE'ly.

Ever looking to depress, eh? At least you're consistent.

If that came off, there'd be a LOT of heat related deaths and illness here and especially across the continent. Not to mention the usual chaos from this country not being able to cope with anything like that. Considering your post to me last night about having consideration for the europeans etc, the irony is delicious.

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

2 minutes ago, Ice Man 85 said:

Ever looking to depress, eh? At least you're consistent.

If that came off, there'd be a LOT of heat related deaths and illness here and especially across the continent. Not to mention the usual chaos from this country not being able to cope with anything like that. Considering your post to me last night about having consideration for the europeans etc, the irony is delicious.

The government need to act they know full well of the climate extremes in Summer and Winter in UK. One day of 31C and railways are delayed yet in Greece don't have a problem.

[Ice Man 85]

4 minutes ago, 40*C said:

The government need to act they know full well of the climate extremes in Summer and Winter in UK. One day of 31C and railways are delayed yet in Greece don't have a problem.

Well can you see any government going out and fitting air con to all the care homes etc? Would please them to no end if the old dears snuffed it. God help us if that comes off.

[Guest]

20 minutes ago, Ice Man 85 said:

Well can you see any government going out and fitting air con to all the care homes etc? Would please them to no end if the old dears snuffed it. God help us if that comes off.

Yes and God help us if we get a nationwide freeze in winter. Swings and roundabouts.