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This is the chart for 7th Jan 82, in all my years in the building trade I cannot ever recall being as cold as I was that day. If  this spell rivals that , then I think that I will stay at home:)

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1 minute ago, 78/79 said:

This is the chart for 7th Jan 82, in all my years in the building trade I cannot ever recall being as cold as I was that day. If  this spell rivals that , then I think that I will stay at home:)

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you want to try walking down to the shops as i did yesterday when it is -24c with a slight breeze in your face..almost burnt my ears off as i wasn't wearing a hat..then the joys of shoveling the drive...roll on summer please.

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22 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:

you want to try walking down to the shops as i did yesterday when it is -24c with a slight breeze in your face..almost burnt my ears off as i wasn't wearing a hat..then the joys of shoveling the drive...roll on summer please.

That's a bit too cold thanks very much.  Back in 82 I was 22 , if I recall correctly it was around freezing all day with  a bitter wind chill . These days I am 57 , and on blood thinners  et al following a heart attack ,  I feel it a  hell of a lot more now.:D

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So country file weather said last night few showers of snow etc not building snowmen. Today said how much snow weekend we don't know and smiled.:D

Edited by pegg24
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well for my back yard winter is over, lol.  no real cold, lowest temp for the next 7 days is 4c, cloudy skies so not even any frost to speak of, good to hear that some parts of the country are going to see some snow over the weekend, but for me its time to start getting the garden ready for spring

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22 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

I'm having flashbacks to the second halves of Feb 09 and 12. As much as we dislike the Euro tonight, it's not exactly way out there.

There's definitely Febuary 2012 vibes about recent output, wouldn't surprise if 2nd half of the month did turn out to be above average, at least I got some Snowfall during that winter which was ironically when things were more Zonal.

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4 hours ago, 78/79 said:

This is the chart for 7th Jan 82, in all my years in the building trade I cannot ever recall being as cold as I was that day. If  this spell rivals that , then I think that I will stay at home:)

Rrea00119820108.gif

Second try at replying to this!

I remember this. I opened the back door as the cat wanted to go out, but when he realised how cold it was he wouldn't go out. It was an unworldly cold without a breath of wind........I thought that this must be how it would feel on another planet.......it really was bizarre. I think it was also the time that Michael Fish, doing his TV forecast, said he had to have some new temperature stickers made for his map as he didn't have any which said minus 28!! Minus 28!!

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Ive decided to do things the old way and look out the window at the weather from now on. What a total embarrassment the model thread has been this year with clearly people thinking they know what they weather will do based on the computer says this in 10 days time. Since when has it been right? Terms such as Snowmageddon and BOOOM really? Where is this boom??? Oh look it was in fantasy world 10 days ago! We've gone from biggest event in 50 to 100 years to oh look it's just a normal average cold spell. Clearly those spouting of such claims haven't got a mongooseing clue what they are talking about! you don't need a bloody computer to tell you if it's cold or not for snow. Go outside get a "feel" for the weather look at your thermometer in the garden seriously stop "trying" to "guess" the future. What a complete and utter waist of time spending mongooseing hours looking at every single model run 4x a day! Really? Really!? mongooseing hells bells enough is enough so long I won't be coming back.

Edited by Rapodo
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2 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

Models 'imploding'....again, nearer the time (so to speak). Trust a weather computer model more than a few days out at your peril. 

Totally agree, especially when showing cold. It was never going to be epic cold, a bit like when the models show a monster storm which could cause some serious damage, when it comes to it, it's just a bit blowy (thank god)

 

Models are good for trends, but nothing else, yes it's turning colder - that's the trend, anything else the models show are pure fantasy.

 

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I'm surprised that the mods don't ban the obvious trolls from posting on the main model output thread (same applies to those who knee-jerk at every single model run).

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48 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

Lots of butthurt in the mod this morning.

Yup, let's hope that the mods delete all of the one liner "wahhhh, not cold or snowy enough" posts. Such posters need to have their write privileges removed on the main model thread as they contribute absolutely nothing.

 

Edited by Buzz
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3 hours ago, Buzz said:

Yup, let's hope that the mods delete all of the one liner "wahhhh, not cold or snowy enough" posts. Such posters need to have their write privileges removed on the main model thread as they contribute absolutely nothing.

 

Lol. Just laugh at them. 

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7 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

Lol. Just laugh at them. 

I do, but they still clutter up the forum with their nonsense and, of course, some of those that are less knowledgeable then become confused or downbeat because of a few trolls/knee-jerkers.

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I'm very much a 'lurker' on these forums ,I've been a member for over 12 years,i tend to read them more in wintertime as i'm pretty much a 'coldie' in winter but i do go through a metamorphosis about march time when i put my summer head on and long for signs of impending heat.

I've learned a bit over the years regarding reading the models/signals ,but i still find it quite silly when the 'knowledgable' lot start bickering on the model thread and threatening to ban /report each other because the charts do not show what they want.

I used to get taken in by the claims that the 'beast from the east' is on it's way but i've learned that even as near as 48/72 hours away things can change drastically , so i keep my mouth shut.

I've been watching the HP develop and the wind veer easterly but i'm still not convinced that it's gonna be anything more than a 3-4 day cold snap with very little snow especially in my neck of the woods, roll on spring

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4 hours ago, Bristle boy said:

Models 'imploding'....again, nearer the time (so to speak). Trust a weather computer model more than a few days out at your peril. 

Id like to know exactly how these computer models are programmed or more to the point how they work at all.  I'm sure there's a few on here who actually know a lot about it so forgive my ignorance before I start babbling. 

When I think about the nature of prediction programming ie, the prediction is based on past data and in the case of forecasting models it is likely based on an insane amount of interactive added variables ranging from temps, dates, macro models, sun spots etc etc, I can't but imagine that no matter how complex and powerful modern programs and their supporting hardware may be they just don't have enough past data to cover the infinity of possible outcomes.  The latest programs might only stretch back as far as 5 - 10 years with data prior to this being re-entered manually(so to speak) including 2 or 3 centuries of basic readings that get more scatty the further back you go.  Throw in a few global temperature anomalies caused by volcanic eruptions or minor orbital deviations etc and it would make sense to me that the supercomputers driving the models aren't wrong, they are just starved of relevant data.

With that in mind (more specifically in my mind I should say :) ) the current easterly meteorological setup in our neck of the woods can only but cause the models to struggle.  Easterly airflows aren't altogether rare in the UK and Ireland but they are without question in the minority (they seem to be popping up in summer more recently just to add a little salt to the coldies wounds) so it would stand to reason the models will overhype the westerly influence and bluff it's way through the outcome of a west v east standoff.  Judging by the past week's output I reckon the models in these situations default after every 2 or 3 runs and start over after running comparisons between their control run predictions and T0's (which I assume they constantly do).

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