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Posted
  • Location: Runcorn
  • Location: Runcorn
    3 hours ago, John Hodgson said:

    Oh here we go again. I'm going to be stressed out for the next week 0_0. Hopefully we get something decent this time so i can avoid some sort of breakdown. 

    Whenever they do hint at something you're always expecting a downgrade which comes to fruition 9 times out of 10, one of the few times it didn't was in 2010 which was unfortunately before I came across these forums,

    Edited by Anon90
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    Posted
  • Location: Upper Gornal, Dudley, 205m asl
  • Location: Upper Gornal, Dudley, 205m asl
    On 30 January 2017 at 14:01, Seasonality said:

    True, most British cold spells are pretty crap if we’re being honest, especially in the south of England. What people wet themselves over and talk about “EXTREME COLD, ICE DAYS, BRUTAL COLD, OMG WE’RE GOING TO DIE!!!!” is actually bog standard winter weather for most of the northern hemisphere’s landmass on the same latitude.

    Some places in the Northern Hemisphere pretend they can cope. I lived in Ohio for 2 years. They think they know what they're doing during the winter, but if I'm being honest, I'd rather commute in over cautious Britain then in the Gung-ho "I know what I'm doing so screw everyone else" attitude of Ohio in the snow. It was really scary driving in the snow over there!

    Edited by Gord
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    Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
    1 hour ago, Gord said:

    Some places in the Northern Hemisphere pretend they can cope. I lived in Ohio for 2 years. They think they know what they're doing during the winter, but if I'm being honest, I'd rather commute in over cautious Britain then in the Gung-ho "I know what I'm doing so screw everyone else" attitude of Ohio in the snow. It was really scary driving in the snow over there!

    Lol. 'merica f*ck yeah!

    Edited by Seasonality
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    Posted
  • Location: Cork, Ireland.
  • Weather Preferences: Storms frost snow heatwaves
  • Location: Cork, Ireland.

    Call me fussy as well as being hard to please, but with today being the first of Spring, yes I know  nowadays it's considered to be the last month of winter in the meteorological calendar, but I fail to get excited about any potential easterly. What with the noticeable lengthening of daylight hours and the sun gaining strength, I deem this to be all just too little too late. Get excited if you must about a few continental flurries, but it's a mighty poor second best compared to a midwinter freeze, i.e. late Dec/early Jan. At least then you have reasonable scope remaining for reloads, unlike now with knockers daffs on the verge of doing a merry dance. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
    Just now, Newberryone said:

    Call me fussy as well as being hard to please, but with today being the first of Spring, yes I know  nowadays it's considered to be the last month of winter in the meteorological calendar, but I fail to get excited about any potential easterly. What with the noticeable lengthening of daylight hours and the sun gaining strength, I deem this to be all just too little too late. Get excited if you must about a few continental flurries, but it's a mighty poor second best compared to a midwinter freeze, i.e. late Dec/early Jan. At least then you have reasonable scope remaining for reloads, unlike now with knockers daffs on the verge of doing a merry dance. 

    No, by no scientifically accepted modern definition is this the first day of Spring. And this nonsense about insolation keeps getting repeated here ad nauseam for some reason. February is a winter month without any doubt. And the strength of the sun is only a factor because the UKs climate is so marginal for cold to begin with. Most of the rest of the world on the same latitude is significantly colder. 

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    1 minute ago, Newberryone said:

    Call me fussy as well as being hard to please, but with today being the first of Spring, yes I know  nowadays it's considered to be the last month of winter in the meteorological calendar, but I fail to get excited about any potential easterly. What with the noticeable lengthening of daylight hours and the sun gaining strength, I deem this to be all just too little too late. Get excited if you must about a few continental flurries, but it's a mighty poor second best compared to a midwinter freeze, i.e. late Dec/early Jan. At least then you have reasonable scope remaining for reloads, unlike now with knockers daffs on the verge of doing a merry dance. 

    The weather will do what it wants to do, late March 2013 there was a foot of lying snow across much of the country even with the stronger sun you get that time of year

    Tomorrow will be the 8th anniversary of a Thames streamer that delivered 14" of snow to the London area

    Get unexcited all you want but Feb/March is more than capable of delivering deep snow with the right set up

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    Posted
  • Location: East Durham
  • Location: East Durham
    26 minutes ago, Newberryone said:

    Call me fussy as well as being hard to please, but with today being the first of Spring, yes I know  nowadays it's considered to be the last month of winter in the meteorological calendar, but I fail to get excited about any potential easterly. What with the noticeable lengthening of daylight hours and the sun gaining strength, I deem this to be all just too little too late. Get excited if you must about a few continental flurries, but it's a mighty poor second best compared to a midwinter freeze, i.e. late Dec/early Jan. At least then you have reasonable scope remaining for reloads, unlike now with knockers daffs on the verge of doing a merry dance. 

    Some of the heaviest and deepest falls ive seen have occured in late Feb and March, 1979 comes to mind, and there are plenty of other examples.

    Some tasty solutions on offer in the morning charts, strange ECM run but it still gets the cold across the North sea, always the hardest hurdle to clear. Watching with high interest.

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    Posted
  • Location: manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Summer & Winter
  • Location: manchester
    1 hour ago, Newberryone said:

    Call me fussy as well as being hard to please, but with today being the first of Spring, yes I know  nowadays it's considered to be the last month of winter in the meteorological calendar, but I fail to get excited about any potential easterly. What with the noticeable lengthening of daylight hours and the sun gaining strength, I deem this to be all just too little too late. Get excited if you must about a few continental flurries, but it's a mighty poor second best compared to a midwinter freeze, i.e. late Dec/early Jan. At least then you have reasonable scope remaining for reloads, unlike now with knockers daffs on the verge of doing a merry dance. 

    Your imaginary book does it also say summer is over because the sun loses all its strength at 00:01 on August 1st?

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    Posted
  • Location: Bearwood, Sandwell 195 asl
  • Location: Bearwood, Sandwell 195 asl

    Certainly a lot of excitement and anticipation building for the beast from the east.  The emerging weather pattern is the only one that can produce the holy grail of cold weather for the UK, especially southern parts.  However caution needs to be exercised with this pattern as the UK is always at the end of the line and so much can go wrong even within the reliable timeframes. 

     

    Wasn’t the infamous end of January 2001 (can anyone post the chart) cold spell that never materialised get to within 3 days before going pear shaped.  Famously John Kettley had predicted this a full week in advance in the national media, preparing everyone for the worse.  In the end easterly winds veered northwards over the North Sea, and just clipped the east coast of Scotland.

     

    I guess for every 2001, there is a 1987 or 1991 and there will always be a real chance.  The law of averages would suggest we are due a direct hit this time.

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    Posted
  • Location: Allerton Bywater, Castleford, West Yorkshire. 15m ASL
  • Location: Allerton Bywater, Castleford, West Yorkshire. 15m ASL

    I never hardly post on here, however i would just like to mention one thing, i am going to stay in a cottage in Ingleton in the Yorkshire Dales for a week from Saturday 11th February, near to the time when the next period of interest is upon us.  So from wanting snow all winter i now don't want it around those dates. The last time i stayed in a cottage was January 2010 in Derbyshire and was snowed in all week.  So this will definately happen lol :)

    Edited by CasMan
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    Posted
  • Location: Hockley, Essex
  • Location: Hockley, Essex
    6 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

    Met Office say no to widespread snowfall next week and not surprisingly. Still no proper agreement cross model for what's being progged by the GFS op.

    We have had a lot of phantoms this winter. Will believe it when there is snow settling on the ground ..

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    Posted
  • Location: Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Anything interesting!
  • Location: Chelmsford, Essex

    Yeah I'm always suspicious of direct hit -10 and colder 850's at that range - how many times have we seen it in the past? So often see the coldest air being shunted east or south nearer the time, or other fine detail emerging during the countdown from 120 onwards.

    2010 was quite notable for the lack of deviation from long range to T+0, but I think everyone is expecting this to be somewhat more fraught.

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: snow, heat, thunderstorms
  • Location: Leeds
    5 hours ago, Newberryone said:

    Call me fussy as well as being hard to please, but with today being the first of Spring, yes I know  nowadays it's considered to be the last month of winter in the meteorological calendar, but I fail to get excited about any potential easterly. What with the noticeable lengthening of daylight hours and the sun gaining strength, I deem this to be all just too little too late. Get excited if you must about a few continental flurries, but it's a mighty poor second best compared to a midwinter freeze, i.e. late Dec/early Jan. At least then you have reasonable scope remaining for reloads, unlike now with knockers daffs on the verge of doing a merry dance. 

    Simple fact of the matter is - the kind of synoptics likely to deliver a cold spell are more likely in February because the Atlantic is, on average, at its quietest at this time of year. 

    I'm sure most of us would prefer a cold spell in late December or early January, but cold spells and snow in general are not very likely that early in the winter.

     

    Edited by cheese
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    Posted
  • Location: Chisinau, Moldova.
  • Location: Chisinau, Moldova.

    Some movement from the mean on the 06z to support a more obvious easterly flow as compared to the 0z. 

    Screen Shot 2017-02-01 at 15.24.57.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Hockley, Essex
  • Location: Hockley, Essex
    15 minutes ago, Number 23 said:

    Yeah I'm always suspicious of direct hit -10 and colder 850's at that range - how many times have we seen it in the past? So often see the coldest air being shunted east or south nearer the time, or other fine detail emerging during the countdown from 120 onwards.

    2010 was quite notable for the lack of deviation from long range to T+0, but I think everyone is expecting this to be somewhat more fraught.

    It is SO rare and with the models and everything else all pointing to different things.  I am not expecting anything other than colder temps like last week.

     How many times this winter has a certain daily "news"paper report we will all be dying from an artic blast?  Still here and nothing remotely of the sort happened

    Edited by Weather_Novice
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    Posted
  • Location: Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Anything interesting!
  • Location: Chelmsford, Essex
    1 hour ago, Weather_Novice said:

    It is SO rare and with the models and everything else all pointing to different things.  I am not expecting anything other than colder temps like last week.

      

     
     

    If I had to stake my mortgage on an outcome, I'd be inclined to agree. That's not to say it won't happen though and I'll be watching with interest!

    Edited by Number 23
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    Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
    On 09/01/2017 at 14:09, stainesbloke said:

    Can't see this as anything other than another failed cold spell, METO are only giving it a 30% chance. Until it comes into the T48-72 time frame, I'm just going to treat it as a bit of model fun.

    Edited by SteveB
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    Posted
  • Location: Staines, UK or Prague, Czech Republic
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and sunny, thunderstorms, snow, fog, frost, squall lines
  • Location: Staines, UK or Prague, Czech Republic
    9 minutes ago, SteveB said:

     

    What's the quote for?

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