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Polar Maritime

Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

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7 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

It's not happened yet!

don't the strat charts reflect the models?

plus it is only 23rd jan,plenty of time yet:)

no but thought I heard somewhere that the SSW it takes 6 weeks to have any effect? if it does at all, so we're looking at Easterlies maybe for April

Edited by I remember Atlantic 252

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6 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

It's not happened yet!

don't the strat charts reflect the models?

plus it is only 23rd jan,plenty of time yet:)

Well, I hope something decent crops up in February, but going by how this winter has been so far and the current outlook, I'm not optimistic.  However, we'll see where we are at the end of next month!

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2 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

no but thought I heard somewhere that the SSW it takes 6 weeks to have any effect? if it does at all, so we're looking at Easterlies maybe for April

What would be the shortest responce from a tech SSW?

7-10 days?

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2 minutes ago, Don said:

Well, I hope something decent crops up in February, but going by how this winter has been so far and the current outlook, I'm not optimistic.  However, we'll see where we are at the end of next month!

Me too,i am just trying to be possitive as there is still time but how many times have we said this lol.

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The one thing I would add is that zonality hasn't taken hold at all this winter. Even though it may be shown to potentially dominate soon, this was also shown back in December before quickly vanishing again nearer the time. It only ended up being less than a week before the blocking pattern resumed. Lots to play for!

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Can i just ask,who exactly is this Judah Cohen?

His name seems to crop up all the time. Take it he's some sort of weather god/cult hero sort of fella.

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What a glorious ,glorious morning,if only every day started like this! Crisp,fresh beautiful sky,makes one feel alive. Can't beat it.

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18 minutes ago, cornish snow said:

Can i just ask,who exactly is this Judah Cohen?

His name seems to crop up all the time. Take it he's some sort of weather god/cult hero sort of fella.

Here you go - http://www.judahcohen.org/

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That's it. I'm done.

Can't  be bothered now to chase winter. We've had nearly two weeks of bone chilling weather here in Kent and I'm fed up with it. 

Can we have spring now? 

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Oh dear, the modeleers are getting excited again...Blizzards incoming!:shok:

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Just now, Ed Stone said:

Oh dear, the modeleers are getting excited again...Blizzards incoming!:shok:

ECM nothing special anyway, those 850's look pants! reminds me of this snowless setup, awful days, 3 days later the Atlantic rolled in and was a complete washout, not a flake of snow

 

 

archives-2016-2-14-0-0.pngarchives-2016-2-14-0-1.pngarchives-2016-2-14-12-0.pngarchives-2016-2-17-12-0.png

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2 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

ECM nothing special anyway, those 850's look pants! reminds me of this snowless setup, awful days, 3 days later the Atlantic rolled in and was a complete washout, not a flake of snow

 

 

archives-2016-2-14-0-0.pngarchives-2016-2-14-0-1.pngarchives-2016-2-14-12-0.pngarchives-2016-2-17-12-0.png

I absolutely love snow, I always have; but, being told to expect it, when it's about as likely as my winning the lottery, really does peace me off!

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The ECM 12z and the GFS 12z are poles apart  next week ,it remains to see if the GFS 18z follows the ECM ,if it doesn't then i would expect the ECM to backtrack as well at midnight.

 

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So, we have a good looking but non cold ECM, a non cold GFS and a not cold METO this evening. I predict a half way house ie 'not cold' :)

 

 

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This winter has been a neither bad nor good one. I can't see any mild weather any time soon. It seems when it's forecasted, the weather gets downgraded. 

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8 minutes ago, JBMWeatherForever said:

Lots of excitement on here tonight and with good reason. Some saying that the end result might be a half way house between what the ECM and GFS show - But the ECM is still continuing to trend further towards an exciting outlook and the GFS now starting to following it lead.

If as has been said, things are looking like a repeat of March 2013, then that pattern being repeated so much earlier could mean things get serious. We are currently less than a week after the date when the winter of 1947 first took hold.   

As far as I'm concerned and many more down here, winter hasn't warmed up since that snow Thursday a few weeks back, in fact there's still some snow on the hills north west of Dover. Someone posted a pic of it yesterday. Lot's of lakes completely frozen over all over the south east as well.

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28 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Ecm...:nonono:

I always go by GFS, something's telling me of last nights 12Z's, the GFS could be quite close, we could be heading for flooding, gales, and maybe contender for wettest February's on record

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Some pretty pics of what might have been if we all lived in mainland Europe. If anyone comes up with a plan to drain the North Sea or the Channel and link us back up again, I'm in, give me a shout if you need a hand.

Plitivice Lakes, Croatia. Taken 20th January.

16143109_1945577412332017_7125863972462152511_n.jpg

16265773_1945577408998684_2500048940048780375_n.jpg

16266234_1945577468998678_1444033416788102195_n.jpg

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4 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Talk about being presumptive!

Its called selling.

 

Imagine if it said, normal winter nothing to exciting. Hurry and sign up as there's not much to see......

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The mods are even deleting posts thanking other members for informative write ups, even related to the models! ( Wasn't a one liner either )

No wonder I stopped posting for over a year

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