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Polar Maritime

Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

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6 minutes ago, KTtom said:

In all seriousness I think the mods should open up a 'potential easterly' thread to save the rest of us the boredom.

That deals with one end of the spectrum. To deal with the other extreme, my suggestion is that anyone saying "winter is over" could be shipped off to the Spring forum by the mods and the rest of us can join them in March/April.

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Whoa the EPS anomaly  handling of the HP and trough are quite interesting this evening. It has the trough attempting to undercut the HP cell to phase with the upper low in the eastern Med.

ecm_eps_z500a_nh_9.pngecm_eps_z500a_5d_nh_20.png

Edited by knocker

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I heard a rumour that the westerly QBO takes a couple of months to get into the NH circulation. Given Decembers record west QBO Feb and March may be Atlantic Driven. Not sure if this is nonsense or not though.

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Just to add to the above by the end of the run we have a strong Aleutian ridge and Canadian vortex with a trough from the latter SE into the Atlantic. Negative anomalies cover the latter with a westerly upper flow but signs of positive anomalies and some ridging NW from Scandinavia to Iceland which initiates the flow to back somewhat over the UK Don't know what to make of that as yet but may be worth keeping an eye on.

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Nobody can predict the future. Not even a computer. Winter is far from over.

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1 hour ago, Walsall Wood Snow said:

It does feel a bit like Winters over at the moment. I think we all feel a bit deflated like we are stuck in some sort of weather purgatory. I know we've still got 39 days of Winter left (plus some more if you include March's wintry potential) but it does feel like there's little or nothing to look forward to at the moment if scenes of a Winter wonderland are your thing. It could change for the better, but I'm getting to the point now where I'm coming to the realisation that there's a high chance this Winter will be consigned to the one to forget category. 

kinda over snow wise, but cars frosting over out there now, but models looking worrying, not a great setup with blocking high to our east, Atlantic fronts will struggle to clear the UK, potentially dumping bucket loads of rain over us, at least traditional zonality the fronts will clear through

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1 minute ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

kinda over snow wise, but cars frosting over out there now, but models looking worrying, not a great setup with blocking high to our east, Atlantic fronts will struggle to clear the UK, potentially dumping bucket loads of rain over us, at least traditional zonality the fronts will clear through

I suppose it is somewhat Winter like out there tonight. It's all for nothing though without the potential for snow to look forward too. Maybe this Winter will deliver a good snowy spell yet, but I'm starting to feel a lot of doubt in that regard.

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8 minutes ago, Walsall Wood Snow said:

I suppose it is somewhat Winter like out there tonight. It's all for nothing though without the potential for snow to look forward too. Maybe this Winter will deliver a good snowy spell yet, but I'm starting to feel a lot of doubt in that regard.

The Sahara desert has taken our snow this year lol

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In this sort of pattern one has to keep one's eyes peeled for any developing Atlantic storms that may impact whilst at the same time remaining forever vigilant in case the elusive 'easterly' suddenly sniffs the coffee.

ecm_mslp_uv850_natl_8.pngecm_mslp_uv850_natl_11.png

Edited by knocker

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Well, the weather's been much better than the forecast a few days ago suggested it may have been. 3 days of full sun and frosts. Dry air for here in January too. Stunning really (even if I've been stuck in work most of the time), and I'd take more of this.

Just a shame that once again it clouds over or there's too much wind for would have been a very cold night (20 miles to my NE it's widely -5C to -7C).

GFS has also downgraded cold locally. Met Office does give us a clear calm night into Monday, but after it reaches 8C during the day.
 

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Looking at the ext EPS this morning shows no change from yesterday evening, Aleutian ridge, active Canadian vortex with associated troughs down  western N. America and SE into the NW Atlantic. Ergo, although still a suspicion of a ridge orientated to the SE of Iceland, negative anomalies across the Atlantic and a  zonal westerly.which portends a continuation of unsettled weather with temps around average.

Edited by knocker

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Still can't see an Atlantic onslaught. I think it will edge in and we will then get stuck in a SWerly as the high holds on to the east and the Atlantic tries to get in. That will be the case until energy starts moving SEwards and a more Pm solution arises.

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15 hours ago, pegg24 said:

The Sahara desert has taken our snow this year lol

I had to go all the way to the Atlas Mountains Morocco last week to get my snow fix this winter. I think it's about as good as I will get this winter.

137.JPG

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The rapidly changing upper pattern with the 'split' vortex, meridional flow over N. America, anomalously negative Atlantic and the retreat of the block

gefs_z500a_5d_nh_49.png

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26 minutes ago, Hammer50 said:

Daily express again talking up a mega freeze.

I don't know why anyone reads the Apocalyptic warnings in The Daily Express; they've cried "Wolf, Wolf!" so often now:

Z_temp_30hpa_192.png

This is the stratospheric (30 mb) pattern predicted for next week which, come 10th February (it takes about a fortnight for polar stratospheric wind-patterns to reach the low-troposphere) may well translate into low pressure over Scandinavia with high-pressure over NE Canada/Greenland which could bring some much colder north-west winds off the Greenland Icecap for a while. However, it will not last, assuming that this cold spell does materialise!

Edited by iapennell

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In all my 17 or so years of winter model watching this has to be up there with the most benign/boring/tedious ever - sick of it now tbh - roll on spring/summer - rant over !

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1 minute ago, Jonathan Evans said:

Atlantic now in by next thursday - game over !

Game for what we all new that we where going to get some  unsettled   Weather later part of January it's been very cold here in the south east of England for 2 weeks with hard frosts and my snow man is still in the garden I'm looking at February for the next cold shot.

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55 minutes ago, Jonathan Evans said:

In all my 17 or so years of winter model watching this has to be up there with the most benign/boring/tedious ever - sick of it now tbh - roll on spring/summer - rant over !

Astounding winter!  Billed with so much wintry potential back in November yet has delivered only an evening of transient snow, which all disappeared by the morning.  

I read some posts of people pitching hopes on the solar minimum in the coming winters ... I really wouldn't hold your breath! Snow in the south of the UK really is now as rare as hen's teeth!  I would put it in my area - a max of 4 occasions of seeing snow fall from the sky in the last 1,400+ days :mellow:

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22 hours ago, John Badrick said:

Have I woken up in March or something.  Last time I checked it was January, coldest part of winter yet to come 

Always potential for some heavy snowfall throughout March but soon as sun pops out the thaw is rapid. 

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4 minutes ago, Bradowl said:

Always potential for some heavy snowfall throughout March but soon as sun pops out the thaw is rapid. 

January tends to be like that now! happened to me on friday 13th, Arctic air remained, full thaw

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Bobbydog made an interesting point in the MOD thread that even if you've given up on this Winter (and many have, including myself, but not totally dismissing the slim possibility for a late Winter surprise or two) that next Winter or even the next few could hold much more potential due to solar minimum.

Something I've thought about myself is, though it's been a poor Winter here, much of Europe (even southern Europe) has had quite a remarkable Winter. In recent years they too have endured very mild Winters but this year was different. If this is a new trend then surely next or some other not too distant future Winter will b e more favourable for us as well. I was thinking about the Winters that occurred during the Second World War. Though this may be wrong I've heard that every Winter during that conflict was very cold on the continent but here apart from the first couple (1939/40 & 1940/41) we're either nothing remarkable or even mild (probably just as well in the circumstances, as it could have made us much more vulnerable to the Nazi threat). Then not long after the war we had the very snowy Winter of 1946/47. This perhaps shows that as long as Europe has an extended period of cold Winters, though we may not always benefit it certainly boosts our chances of being affected sometimes too.

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Aaaaaagh, the weather is sooooo BORING right now. A week of leaden grey skies, not a breath of wind, the merest hint of drizzle and one sunny day. And next week's forecast is basically the same.

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1 minute ago, alr1970 said:

Aaaaaagh, the weather is sooooo BORING right now. A week of leaden grey skies, not a breath of wind, the merest hint of drizzle and one sunny day. And next week's forecast is basically the same.

Could be a lot worse, like when a lot of the UK's homes were underwater, flood misery, we could be seeing charts like this!

archives-2014-1-27-12-0.png

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22 hours ago, KTtom said:

Couldn't agree more mate...IF I had a pound every time  someone talks about potential for an Easterly!  It's not happening...all the potential is doing is wasting winter away while we get stuck in no man's land!  When was the last time we had a potent easterly....speaks volumes.

 

In all seriousness I think the mods should open up a 'potential easterly' thread to save the rest of us the boredom.

Been Easterly here for the last few days,yesterday was quite fresh and felt cold with it .

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