Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

[snowbunting]

To be honest I prefer when it snows stays for a few days then just goes. After a few days it tends to ice over and become hardpacked and basically a pain in every respect.  Living in the North of Scotland we have had snow events which have led to snow lying on the ground over weeks transforming to hardpacked ice.. 1999, 2001, 2002, 2004, 2006, 2009, 2010 and 2013. 

 

An easterly wind isnt great for us on the west for snow. But we get it cold n dry which is a bonus.  However, a Nly is. 

 

[snowblizzard]

Yes, I remember well the farmers forecast (I think it was Bill Giles) Jan 1987 when we had -20 850's over Kent for a short while.

Bill mentioned that he'd heard from a fisherman from the Western Isles in Scotland who said he was out working in shirt sleeves and wondered what all the fuss was about!

In Westerham, Kent, we had a bitter cold North Easterly wind, max -5c (felt like -15c) and continuous heavy powder snow and a depth of 18" on my coal bunker!

High pressure stretching from Iceland into Scandinavia - strong long stretch Siberian flow around the High. 

It was probably the best spell of severe cold and snow that I can remember baring 1962/63 

Fantastic memories, unlikely to be repeated now that global warming seems to be taking effect.

 

Edited January 1, 2017 by snowblizzard

[I remember Atlantic 252]

252 on GFS, another go at a northerly around Thurs 12th, still not believing it yet

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

I've cheered up a bit since yesterday, so I disown my gloomy posts that lowland snow is history; that being said, I suspect it's becoming harder to achieve. 

[sparky1972]

well looks like a nice week weather wise comming up, turning milder as we go through the week, temps back to double figures by sunday/monday, looks like gardening will be the order of the day as i feel spring like weather is going to arrive very early this year.

[markyo]

4 minutes ago, sparky1972 said:

well looks like a nice week weather wise comming up, turning milder as we go through the week, temps back to double figures by sunday/monday, looks like gardening will be the order of the day as i feel spring like weather is going to arrive very early this year.

And what planet is this on? Def not our lovely planet Earth!

[Jonathan Bollen]

I said winter will go pearshaped again like last year. Yes pearshaped. Spring wil cone in early march again. 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

12 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

I've cheered up a bit since yesterday, so I disown my gloomy posts that lowland snow is history; that being said, I suspect it's becoming harder to achieve. 

yes, harder to achieve more accurate, the mõdern era is a tough thing, even this setup we have today, would be snowier 20 years ago, snow line would be lower, dumping at Buxton, wet snow here

[sparky1972]

3 minutes ago, markyo said:

And what planet is this on? Def not our lovely planet Earth!

well, met office temps for mby are 8/9 by the end of the week, weather outlook have temps 9c next sunday, then 11c for jan9,10,11 in sth westerly breeze so i for one would take that it would feel quite pleasent, i would sooner swap it for cold snowy weather anytime but as that is not likely i will take dry and pleasent

[I remember Atlantic 252]

control at 252, still not believing northerly is on, bound to downgrade and miss to the east, leaving milder Atlantic air running over top of the high

[SLEETY]

Remember  especially Oct and Nov and all the northern blocking  and perfect Scandinavian high in Oct  ,you just knew once we hit the winter months it would change ,why is it so easy to get the perfect winter sypnotics in any other season,but winter next to impossible,nearly always.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Just now, SLEETY said:

Remember  especially Oct and Nov and all the northern blocking  and perfect Scandinavian high in Oct  ,you just knew once we hit the winter months it would change ,why is it so easy to get the perfect winter sypnotics in any other season,but winter next to impossible,nearly always.

probably because PV not developed, Dec to Feb is strongest PV, strongest jet, where as by April, HLB much easier with PV waning, seems like that anyway

[Gord]

Think I might start only coming here in the warmer months now. Winter is proving to be a very boring season with nothing to discuss. Unlike last June when we had all of that wonderful thundery weather to track. 

Don't suppose there's any sign of the first plume yet...is there?

 

[The PIT]

Wot a horrid gfs run. Could well be a snow free winter if this trend carries on.

[78/79]

Sometimes I think that it's the sheer mediocrity of our climate that  really gets to me. There is pretty much s..d all to look forward to, Summer and Winter. At least on the continent they get largely  decent summers and spells of good winter weather .

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

7 minutes ago, The PIT said:

Wot a horrid gfs run. Could well be a snow free winter if this trend carries on.

Of the three main NWP models, the GFS is the most likely to default to zonal, and, IMO, the least likely to indicate the likely direction of travel from distance.

[Summer Sun]

3 minutes ago, 78/79 said:

Sometimes I think that it's the sheer mediocrity of our climate that  really gets to me. There is pretty much s..d all to look forward to, Summer and Winter. At least on the continent they get largely  decent summers and spells of good winter weather .

 

That's the advantage of not have a vast ocean given our latitude which I think is around the same as somewhere in Canada we would see colder winters if it wasn't for the Atlantic

[markyo]

52 minutes ago, sparky1972 said:

well, met office temps for mby are 8/9 by the end of the week, weather outlook have temps 9c next sunday, then 11c for jan9,10,11 in sth westerly breeze so i for one would take that it would feel quite pleasent, i would sooner swap it for cold snowy weather anytime but as that is not likely i will take dry and pleasent

Very strange,in my neck of the woods the temps are showing half what you are saying,only 30 odd miles from you. Max next sunday is 3c!! 

[lassie23]

I think it is time to put this winter on the scrap heap too, after reading posts from quicksilver 1989 and iapenell, everything is the total opposite to what it should be, for cold in the UK, decent prolonged northern blocking in the right location doesn't stand a chance at the moment, only a favourable SSW  event can save this one and that may not happen.

[knocker]

Looking good for the second wave of Dafs

Edited January 1, 2017 by knocker

[lassie23]

8 minutes ago, knocker said:

Looking good for the second wave of Dafs

Indeed, as i said, winter is over lol

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Summer my favourite season now, decent warm days, relaxing weather, not a severe heat lover but it's rare anyway

as far as winter goes, the mõdern era has taken me off winters, and really most of the time here in the south, it tends to be more like autumn, except for the odd month, who wants wind and rain and 10° temps all winter

[Snowyowl9]

2 snowless Decembers in a row shocking.

[snowray]

1 hour ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

yes, harder to achieve more accurate, the mõdern era is a tough thing, even this setup we have today, would be snowier 20 years ago, snow line would be lower, dumping at Buxton, wet snow here

Totally agree, I checked on the Buxton weather station earlier on and could not believe that at around 1,000ft asl it was all rain, not even a little sleet mixed in. 

[Penrith Snow]

I know my friends down south wouldn't like it but in my opinion the best route to cold is from the north west similar to what is being modelled in GFS FI.

I thought a Scandy High was never a real option and I still think that will have to wait till February but an aggressive north westerly flow with embedded south east moving systems is a real option and has been frequently modelled. Such a scenario is also within the wider atmospheric constraints discussed by Steve M earlier.

Its worth remembering that 'up north' January 2015 was quite a snowy month due to cold zonality, indeed, I recorded more snow that month than during January 2013!

No good for you Londoners but give us a break lads you have the best of the summer weather.

Snowy zonality aka 1984 it is then.

Andy