Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

[Polar Maritime]

Plenty of time yet, Jan/Feb are traditionally the 'true' Winter months that can deliver the goods. 

[Iceaxecrampon]

20 minutes ago, Polar Maritime said:

Plenty of time yet, Jan/Feb are traditionally the 'true' Winter months that can deliver the goods. 

Yes of course - but we want something FESTIVE - all snow melt from the tops - was amazing a fortnight ago.

[mountain shadow]

39 minutes ago, Polar Maritime said:

Plenty of time yet, Jan/Feb are traditionally the 'true' Winter months that can deliver the goods. 

We hear this every year though. Then when January doesn't deliver, people say Feb and March are best for snow, then when February doesn't deliver we're told March is snowier than December etc..

[carinthian]

4 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

Sigh, can feel the hope draining away every time i check the morning outputs, as a coldie its like going to bookies every day, and coming out penniless. I mean, 13 degrees yestsrday, and drizzle, even the christmas trees outside the shop looked depressed, sad times,....

Sounds depressing. What a waste of long dark nights! Sludge pump Christmas. Think the German markets that festoon inn cities must just want to pack up and return to the Rhineland and hoar frost awaits. Numerous ice days so far in central and southern Germany. Makes me sad that you lot have to endure those horrible mucky mild days. The promise of cold that never comes and when it does, just a token wimp of an effort. Come on Santa,deliver a real Christmas,deep snow, cruel frosts, its not a lot to wish for is it? From C sat under Euro_high, feeling fed up,at least the sun is shining and frost at night.

[snowray]

2 hours ago, snowblizzard said:

Christmas in Val Thorens for me.

It costs money to get a winter fix when you live in the UK!

Seems like the place to be for the best Christmas snowfall could be around the balkans, Greece, Southern Italy and down through Turkey....Getting fed up with them nicking our winter weather every year. More chance of snow in Bethlehem than around here...Grrrr

[snowray]

2 hours ago, Polar Maritime said:

Maybe a can get to mow the lawn Christmas day again, It needs the top knocking off in any-case. 

My lawn needs cutting too, if the temp goes over 15c on Christmas day and its sunny, thats it, I'm joining you and will be cutting the lawn...and PRUNING the roses TOO!!!

[Seasonality]

16 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

We hear this every year though. Then when January doesn't deliver, people say Feb and March are best for snow, then when February doesn't deliver we're told March is snowier than December etc..

I think the phrase "every year" is salient. This happens every year because the UK does not have a cold climate. I wish people would manage their expectations. For their own stress levels as much as anything else.

[Jackfrost]

Even at my (relatively respectable) altitude, I haven't seen more than 2-4 cm of snow since March 2013. The much-loathed winters of the 97-08 period were much more productive than the last three and in all my time of record-keeping, I haven't recorded more than one successive winter without at least one (10 cm plus) fall of snow, and several winters (00-01, 03-04, 05-06, 09-10 and 10-11) had more than one: 12-13, 13-14 and 14-15 were largely snowless, and this one isn't off to a good start. And on the flipside, prolonged Summer warmth and storms have also been mostly absent in recent years. It's all very monotonous.

But back to snow, and why is it increasingly feeling like a distant memory in Southern Britain? Sadly, I suspect it's a case of a changing, warming climate rather than a run of bad luck. Perhaps we will see a widespread, lowland fall this winter, but isolated weather events don't make up for a changing climate. And besides, I find it hard to desperately chase down each morsel of cold, hoping it'll gift our shoes with a few flakes of snow, when the planet as a whole is warming at the rate it is.

All very sad.

Edited December 9, 2016 by Jackfrost

[pegg24]

Not writing winter of yet but very frustrated when met gone for mild winters for years.

Bbc says this year colder than average and it's not happening at the moment.

Always think probadly me being positive but one year everything falls in to place at the last minute and we are going to get a proper hammering with the snow. 

Will suppose we can dream always think in Guernsey in March 2013 if they can get 4 foot snow drifts and that's a smaller island than us so can we. lol

[cobbett]

14 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

I think the phrase "every year" is salient. This happens every year because the UK does not have a cold climate. I wish people would manage their expectations. For their own stress levels as much as anything else.

I think most peoples expectations were low pre winter but then all the signals around the PV being shredded and this winter is going to be so different to 2015 etc etc and we still end up with the same old rubbish . Early days I know..but

[Gustywind]

1 hour ago, Jackfrost said:

Even at my (relatively respectable) altitude, I haven't seen more than 2-4 cm of snow since March 2013. The much-loathed winters of the 97-08 period were much more productive than the last three and in all my time of record-keeping, I haven't recorded more than one successive winter without at least one (10 cm plus) fall of snow, and several winters (00-01, 03-04, 05-06, 09-10 and 10-11) had more than one: 12-13, 13-14 and 14-15 were largely snowless, and this one isn't off to a good start. And on the flipside, prolonged Summer warmth and storms have also been mostly absent in recent years. It's all very monotonous.

But back to snow, and why is it increasingly feeling like a distant memory in Southern Britain? Sadly, I suspect it's a case of a changing, warming climate rather than a run of bad luck. Perhaps we will see a widespread, lowland fall this winter, but isolated weather events don't make up for a changing climate. And besides, I find it hard to desperately chase down each morsel of cold, hoping it'll gift our shoes with a few flakes of snow, when the planet as a whole is warming at the rate it is.

All very sad.

Sadly I agree, like you I've seen little in the way of snow since March 2013, just the odd covering here and there.

I'm concerned that we seem to be struggling more and more to achieve proper high level blocking in the core winter months. Wasn't December 10 the last true Greenland high in winter? While the record rainfalls and storminess seen in 2 of the last 3 winters is I fear a sign of things to come thanks to global warming and disappearing arctic sea ice.

When I was growing up in the late 70s and 80s I counted at least one decent and sizeable snowfall each and every winter. Now it's more like 1 every 3 years. Very sad.

As for this year I predict a green and increasingly wet Xmas and New Year period, with a full strength polar vortex and little or no northerly blocking. The long term models are barking up the wrong tree this year, think whoever programmed them has been on the mulled wine! Sad as you could guarantee they'd be spot on if they called mild and zonal!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

agree with most on here, winters are becoming milder and less snowy on average since approx 2000, slight blip though for the odd month, but the trend is up, TMW!

[Gustywind]

I'd say since 1987 they've been less snowy, certainly the 90s weren't a patch on the 80s in my area. We did have that blip between 2009-13 which was like a trip back to the 80s, but we seem to have switched back now onto the long term path to snowlessness.

[Summer Sun]

4 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

agree with most on here, winters are becoming milder and less snowy on average since approx 2000, slight blip though for the odd month, but the trend is up, TMW!

09/10 and 10/11 were the peak in recent years can't really remember much since (away from Scotland)

 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

25 minutes ago, Gustywind said:

I'd say since 1987 they've been less snowy, certainly the 90s weren't a patch on the 80s in my area. We did have that blip between 2009-13 which was like a trip back to the 80s, but we seem to have switched back now onto the long term path to snowlessness.

90's were very snowy here, perhaps not '99 though

[Weather-history]

2 hours ago, Jackfrost said:

Even at my (relatively respectable) altitude, I haven't seen more than 2-4 cm of snow since March 2013. The much-loathed winters of the 97-08 period were much more productive than the last three and in all my time of record-keeping, I haven't recorded more than one successive winter without at least one (10 cm plus) fall of snow, and several winters (00-01, 03-04, 05-06, 09-10 and 10-11) had more than one: 12-13, 13-14 and 14-15 were largely snowless, and this one isn't off to a good start. And on the flipside, prolonged Summer warmth and storms have also been mostly absent in recent years. It's all very monotonous.

But back to snow, and why is it increasingly feeling like a distant memory in Southern Britain? Sadly, I suspect it's a case of a changing, warming climate rather than a run of bad luck. Perhaps we will see a widespread, lowland fall this winter, but isolated weather events don't make up for a changing climate. And besides, I find it hard to desperately chase down each morsel of cold, hoping it'll gift our shoes with a few flakes of snow, when the planet as a whole is warming at the rate it is.

All very sad.

The above article is from a Times editorial of January 1937

The above article is from a Times article of Boxing Day 1891

 

"At my waking I found the tops of the houses covered with snow, which is a rare sight which I have not seen these three years" 

7th December 1662 Samuel Pepys

The much vaunted winters of the 1960s, Kew Gardens didn't record a single day of lying snow at 9am during two of the those winters.

The harsh reality is snowy winters are not the norm across most parts of the U.K. Even what seem to be favourable times, there are still mediocre winters in that period.

 

Edited December 9, 2016 by Weather-history
.

[Rickoza]

Worry not.  Exacta weather has been banging on about an ice age hitting the UK all Autumn.  Every year.  Bound to get it right one of these decades....

It's definetly true.  Apart from 2010/11 here, we've seen so little snow and been mostly mild.  And thunderstorms have been very scarce. 

[Essan]

43 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

09/10 and 10/11 were the peak in recent years can't really remember much since (away from Scotland)

 

No snow here in winter 09/10 until Jan, no snow in 10/11 after Dec.   So, more specifically - here anyway - 2010.


As an aside, excluding Dec 2010, I experience more snow in April than I do in December .....

[MidnightSnow]

1 hour ago, cobbett said:

I think most peoples expectations were low pre winter but then all the signals around the PV being shredded and this winter is going to be so different to 2015 etc etc and we still end up with the same old rubbish . Early days I know..but

2-5cm of snow that lasts for a few days would be good enough for me. Don't think that's asking too much. I haven't seen a flake since 2013 so would be good just to see some snow falling tbh.

[Weather-history]

32 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

90's were very snowy here, perhaps not '99 though

I doubt they were as snowy as you are trying to make out. How much snow did you get during the winters of 1991-92 and 1992-93? 

1989-90, 1994-95, 1997-98, 1998-99 as well?

[Gustywind]

48 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

The above article is from a Times editorial of January 1937

The above article is from a Times article of Boxing Day 1891

 

"At my waking I found the tops of the houses covered with snow, which is a rare sight which I have not seen these three years" 

7th December 1662 Samuel Pepys

The much vaunted winters of the 1960s, Kew Gardens didn't record a single day of lying snow at 9am during two of the those winters.

The harsh reality is snowy winters are not the norm across most parts of the U.K. Even what seem to be favourable times, there are still mediocre winters in that period.

 

Correct, however I fear the difference now is global warming, rising sea temperatures and rapidly diminishing arctic sea ice.

For our small neck of the woods that seems to be leading to milder, stormier and wetter winters, possibly due to the greater contrast between warm sea vs. Cold N American landmass firing up the jet.

In my lifespan of 43 years I'd never experienced a winter like 2013-14 before, day after day of rain. Then 2015-16 happened! 

[cyclonic happiness]

5 hours ago, MidnightSnow said:

 

 

We missed all the snowfall in that winter :-(

[cheese]

2 hours ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

agree with most on here, winters are becoming milder and less snowy on average since approx 2000, slight blip though for the odd month, but the trend is up, TMW!

No, long before 2000. More like the 1980s.

Edited December 9, 2016 by cheese

[Connor Bailey Degnan]

January will be mild with a 1 day cool snap.

February: May like weather

March: average, with a northerly wind late on, delivering snow to hills in Scotland, but perfect for everyone if it came in January or February. 

April: Lovely and warm

May: easterly winds and mild.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

7 minutes ago, Connor Bailey Degnan said:

January will be mild with a 1 day cool snap.

February: May like weather

March: average, with a northerly wind late on, delivering snow to hills in Scotland, but perfect for everyone if it came in January or February. 

April: Lovely and warm

May: easterly winds and mild.

seems a fair 'forecast' only I would change April to, unsettled with northerly winds