Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

[I remember Atlantic 252]

2 minutes ago, booferking said:

I would take zonality everyday over these failed height attempts least there is a chance of some pm air mixed in sink the slug cause it ani't going to do sweet fa for us.

No way, high pressure fan me, want it dry, PM air worst air mass, but your location could be snowy

[Walsall Wood Snow]

I know it's frustrating at the minute, especially since expectations for December were quite high a few weeks back. But we've got to remember that historically it's pretty uncommon for December to be on the very cold and snowy side in the UK. Most of our best Winters didn't really get started until the last third of December (which is still possible this year) or into January. To be honest though I love the idea of a cold and snowy December such as 2010 which feels nice and festive (and I'm still holding out hope for a White Christmas, which nobody knows whether we will or won't get yet anyway), January and February have always been more likely to deliver Winter wonderland scenes in this part of the world and more often have. If we get to say the middle of January and hopes look slim then would be the time to consider waving the white flags, but I'm pretty hopeful we will be having, have had or about to realise a cold and snowy spell by then. But on the 5th of December we can't possibly know how the Winter as a whole will turn out, so we've just got to sit back and remember the point of the season it now is. That is it's indeed Winter but it's only just so and a point within it we historically shouldn't expect too much. As for the outlook, it may be bad but we all know it'll eventually improve in our favour, it always does whether it verifies or not.

Edited December 5, 2016 by Walsall Wood Snow

[DOdo]

I think its too early for slashing wrists just yet! This mild weather is going to last a couple of days And then afterwards who knows? I only trust the models to T120 and any longer than that is a guessing game except of course the mild muck thats bound to happen. Just goes to show nothing is written in stone concerning the long range models. One days its going to happen and the next not too sure. Personally I have to work Christmas Eve and Christmas Day. I dread it because that can be the busiest time of year  and NO I am not Santa Clause. I would certainly welcome Snow and a lot of it for Christmas

Edited December 5, 2016 by DOdo
Spelling

[The Enforcer]

I find the lack of faith in this winter disturbing.

The net-weather winter forecast took a lot of factors into consideration and was issued about 14 days before the first mild spell of the winter season is due to kick in this week. It doesn't predict an extended mild spell for December.

1st January is 27 days away - that's T+648. I can't think of any model output that has consistently produced reliable forecasts at such a range and then stuck with them right up to T+0. Taking this into account, in a sense the position for the latter half of December is no different than if all the outputs were pointing towards a blocked outcome by the end of the month. This is because it would still be at high risk of change, particularly in an environment where not all of the key factors support blocking (many of them don't support zonal conditions either for that matter).

Also, I see there are charts posted earlier showing 'polar' opposites - easterly vs westerly, but alas at T+386. Even with the slightest of adjustments, over 64 runs one outcome could incrementally morph into the other. Sometimes it only takes one run.

Edited December 5, 2016 by The Enforcer

[johncam]

as Banbury says as this is the THE MODEL OUTPUT DISCUSSION the charts are showing mild all the way, dreadful

[Tonyinhampshire]

5 hours ago, Catacol said:

There is a fairly substantial contradiction in this reasoning. It's amazing how, within 24 hours of the arrival of milder air, people seem convinced now that mild is here to stay long term. We are 5 days into winter and now we are writing off 33% of it?

Bearing in mind operational output has swung away from cold in the last 10 days - what is to stop it swinging back? Certainly not background drivers. They continue, as ever, to reinforce the view that this winter is totally different to last. The chance for cold and snow is no less than it was 2 weeks ago. All that has happened in the meantime is a relaxing of the blocking pattern as the last Pacific wave died out and we await the beginning of the next. Forecasts today show the MJO picking up speed once again. Vortex conditions are not perfect, but they are certainly not bad as we wait to see whether further wave breaking might create increasingly favourable tropospheric impacts. 

Nothing at all has changed. Anyone who had hoped for rampant HLB at a time of falling AAM was on rocky ground. I expect the EC tonight to maintain the hblocking signal as amplification starts to return. Whether we can get it in exactly the right spot for us to cash in on snow in late December remains to be seen.

We have had so much intrigue already and it's only Dec 5!! Great stuff. Keep some perspective while we wait for the mild shot to depart.

Yes but when mild temps are predicted we get mild temps, guaranteed. However when hot or cold temps are forecast we often get mild temps

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

This has to be the most sustained southerly/high pressure cell on record! If it were occurring in Summer it would be a prolonged heatwave to rival 1976 and 1995 surely?

Edited December 6, 2016 by BlueSkies_do_I_see

[knocker]

I've just had word from Sidney and apparently his nephews have firmed up on plans to come down for an Xmas barby to be held outside the woodshed.

[jvenge]

19 minutes ago, knocker said:

I've just had word from Sidney and apparently his nephews have firmed up on plans to come down for an Xmas barby to be held outside the woodshed.

Roast squirrel it is then.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

3 hours ago, BlueSkies_do_I_see said:

This has to be the most sustained southerly on record! If it were occurring in Summer it would be a prolonged heatwave to rival 1976 and 1995 surely?

but as it's Dec, could rival warmest Dec on record 2015

[jvenge]

2 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

but as it's Dec, could rival warmest Dec on record 2015

Not seeing that, to be honest. You could argue for slightly above to above average, but nothing at all to indicate mildest on record.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 hour ago, jvenge said:

Not seeing that, to be honest. You could argue for slightly above to above average, but nothing at all to indicate mildest on record.

yes, models in FI do look a bit better today, nothing exciting showing, but see how 12Z's go, could be similar to late Nov/early Dec

next few days do rival last Dec mind you, double digit max and min temps

Edited December 6, 2016 by I remember Atlantic 252

[jvenge]

4 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

yes, models in FI do look a bit better today, nothing exciting showing, but see how 12Z's go, could be similar to late Nov/early Dec

next few days do rival last Dec mind you, double digit max and min temps

Yes, but in the medium term, not even in FI, they are expected to drop off and return to near average :-)

 

[cheshire snow]

Just now, jvenge said:

Roast squirrel it is then.

PMSL RSPCA have been contacted 

C.S

[ChrisWSM]

Click heels together....

There's no place like home

There's no place like home

There's no place like home

The cold/snow is only 10 days away

The cold/snow is only 10 days away

The cold/snow is only 10 days away

It's the same every winter..............................

[cyclonic happiness]

Well, I'm sure if it can flip from flat zonal, to hugely anticyclonic, in 24 hours, it can also flip to cold and snowy too.

I'm feeling a bit better today about the models anyway, even if it's not gonna happen, just seeing it restores my hope :-)

[pegg24]

42 minutes ago, ChrisWSM said:

Click heels together....

There's no place like home

There's no place like home

There's no place like home

The cold/snow is only 10 days away

The cold/snow is only 10 days away

The cold/snow is only 10 days away

It's the same every winter..............................

Could we get something in there that mentions 1962 1963 and 1946 and 1947 as well. lol

[karlos1983]

I should probably do some work! Just went to like a comment and I'm not allowed anymore likes today, I've used my daily limit of 100!! Really? 100?? I need more damn you, what if Ian F drops a cold bomb on us and I can't like it 

[Mr_Pessimistic]

9 minutes ago, WINTRY WALES said:

Who needs to try and get their head around teleconnections, SSW's, effects of goings on in the Indian Oceans....I am like you....failing to interpret a simple summing up sentence......so to clarify GP's comment is good news for Coldies as things stand?

Nobody knows is the correct answer. People on here fall for the same LRF nonsense every single year. Watch the Mets forecast for a MAX of 5 days ahead to get the general picture of will it likely be warm or cold, no details, and you won't dissapoint yourselves, time, and time again.

[jvenge]

2 minutes ago, Mr_Pessimistic said:

Nobody knows is the correct answer. People on here fall for the same LRF nonsense every single year. Watch the Mets forecast for a MAX of 5 days ahead to get the general picture of will it likely be warm or cold, no details, and you won't dissapoint yourselves, time, and time again.

May I say, your name is very appropriate. 

[Frank Trough]

6 minutes ago, Mr_Pessimistic said:

Nobody knows is the correct answer. People on here fall for the same LRF nonsense every single year. Watch the Mets forecast for a MAX of 5 days ahead to get the general picture of will it likely be warm or cold, no details, and you won't dissapoint yourselves, time, and time again.

I bet Christmas is a bundle of laughs in your house!

You are obviously right though - there's no denying that! Whatever we get will eventually have to appear on an ops chart at less than t+120. However, that does take a bit of fun out of it all, doesn't it?!

[The PIT]

Civil war breaking out in model discussion area suddenly t49000 plus isn't the chart to go for.

Anyway looks like a boring quiet mild rubbish December coming up.

[knocker]

I popped into the MOD thread just now ready to make my usual erudite contribution and found them all out of bed running amok interspersed with the occasional amplified sortie into the Stratosphere..

Edited December 6, 2016 by knocker

[northwestsnow]

[Gord]

Don't think this December will be anymore like December 2015 for prolonged mildness than it will like December 2010 for prolonged cold.

December 2015 was incredible...if that's the right word.

I think we're looking at a more typical British December...for once!

Looks like a chance for something a bit different each week. A frosty spell, followed by a murky mild spell is typical December stuff. I think we've forgotten what a typical British winter month feels like!