Jump to content
Cold?
Local
Radar
Snow?

December 2016 C.E.T. forecasts -- start of 2016-17 competition year


Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl

    2.1c please

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Spotted a post you think may be an issue? Please help the team by reporting it.
    • Replies 311
    • Created
    • Last Reply
    Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

    Let's start the ball rolling with a cautiously optimistic play; 2.5*C please.

    Edit: Sorry I put a degree to low, meant to put 3.5*C... are you buying it? :rofl:

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Helensburgh,22 miles from Glasgow
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,snow and....a bit more snow
  • Location: Helensburgh,22 miles from Glasgow

    Ach, alright, so my earlier guess  could be a tad optimistic.... Can I revert to 3.5c please......if only in the vain hope that I might tempt fate...:wallbash:

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and heatwave
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
    On 28/11/2016 at 23:49, stewfox said:

    2.6c

     

    Want to put this up to 4.1c no front loaded winter.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

    I like a bit of elbow room, so 1.7 for me. 

    Location of the table of entries, see previous post for untaken values but scratch 1.7, and 2.1 now. 

    https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/75427-cet-competition-the-scores-ongoing/?page=7

    (updated as of 0300h Thursday 1st) _ 88 on-time entries and median 3.9 C. 

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

    1981-2010 CET normals and daily records (1772 to 2015)

     

    DATE ___ CET __ CET cum _____ MAX _______ MIN

    01 _____ 5.8 ___ 5.8 ______ 12.1 (1775) ___ --3.0 (1947)

    02 _____ 5.8 ___ 5.8 ______ 12.2 (1985) ___ --4.7 (1796)

    03 _____ 6.0 ___ 5.9 ______ 12.2 (1985) ___ --4.0 (1879)

    04 _____ 6.1 ___ 5.9 ______ 12.1 (1888) ___ --3.8 (1879,1925)

    05 _____ 6.1 ___ 6.0 ______ 12.6 (1898) ___ --3.7 (1844)

    06 _____ 5.0 ___ 5.8 ______ 12.3 (1898) ___ --5.5 (1844)

    07 _____ 4.8 ___ 5.7 ______ 12.3 (1856) ___ --5.7 (1879)

    08 _____ 4.4 ___ 5.5 ______ 12.1 (1856) ___ --5.4 (1807)

    09 _____ 4.5 ___ 5.4 ______ 11.8 (1934) ___ --4.0 (1803)

    10 _____ 4.3 ___ 5.3 ______ 10.9 (1997) ___ --4.5 (1784)

    11 _____ 4.2 ___ 5.2 ______ 12.6 (1994) ___ --6.7 (1784)

    12 _____ 4.2 ___ 5.1 ______ 12.9 (1994) ___ --8.5 (1981)

    13 _____ 4.6 ___ 5.1 ______ 11.6 (1918) ___ --6.5 (1981)

    14 _____ 4.4 ___ 5.0 ______ 11.8 (1912) ___ --5.3 (1878)

    15 _____ 4.6 ___ 5.0 ______ 11.2 (1985) ___ --5.4 (1788)

    16 _____ 4.6 ___ 5.0 ______ 11.4 (2015) ___ --6.6 (1859) ___ (was 10.8 -- 1842)

    17 _____ 4.4 ___ 4.9 ______ 12.5 (2015) ___ --7.7 (1859) ___ (was 11.6 -- 1904)

    18 _____ 4.4 ___ 4.9 ______ 12.5 (2015) ___ --7.1 (1859) ___ (was 11.8 -- 2014)

    19 _____ 4.3 ___ 4.9 ______ 13.1 (2015) ___ --6.8 (2010) ___ (was 11.6 -- 1993)

    20 _____ 3.7 ___ 4.8 ______ 11.1 (1833) ___ --7.0 (2010)

    21 _____ 4.2 ___ 4.8 ______ 11.4 (1971) ___ --5.9 (2010)

    22 _____ 4.5 ___ 4.8 ______ 11.6 (1991) ___ --6.8 (1890)

    23 _____ 4.7 ___ 4.8 ______ 11.8 (1991) ___ --6.4 (1870)

    24 _____ 4.7 ___ 4.8 ______ 10.7 (1843) ___ --6.9 (1870)

    25 _____ 4.5 ___ 4.8 ___ 10.4 (1824,1983) _ --10.8 (1796)

    26 _____ 4.3 ___ 4.7 ______ 11.0 (2011) ___ --5.4 (1798)

    27 _____ 3.9 ___ 4.7 ______ 10.9 (2015) ___ --8.4 (1798) ___ (was 10.6 -- 1987)

    28 _____ 4.1 ___ 4.7 ______ 11.5 (1987) ___ --8.2 (1798)

    29 _____ 3.9 ___ 4.7 ______ 12.0 (1987) ___ --4.9 (1874)

    30 _____ 4.2 ___ 4.6 ______ 11.0 (1834) ___ --6.1 (1870)

    31 _____ 4.2 ___ 4.6 ______ 11.1 (1859) ___ --7.1 (1783)

    ________________________________________________________________

    The three largest drops in CET from one December to the next ...

     

    7.0 (from 7.4 in 1843 to 0.4 in 1844)

    6.9 (from 6.6 in 1795 to --0.3 in 1796)

    6.4 (from 7.7 1852 to 1.3 1853) 

    __________________________________________________________________

    The eight largest rises (five and ties for 5th) in Dec CET from average of 1st to 5th ...

    4.2 (1st to 5th avg 0.9 == to month end 5.1 Dec 1947)

    4.1 (1st to 5th avg 0.1 == to month end 4.2 Dec 1875)

    4.0 (1st to 5th avg 0.4 == to month end 4.4 Dec 1856)

    3.9 (1st to 5th avg --3.2 == to month end 0.7 Dec 1879)

    3.7 (1st to 5th avg 2.8 == to month end 6.5 Dec 1921)

    3.7 (1st to 5th avg --0.9 == to month end 2.8 Dec 1925)

    3.7 (1st to 5th avg 2.4 to month end 6.1 Dec 1977)

    3.7 (1st to 5th avg 2.1 to month end 5.8 Dec 1997)

    The first table indicates that the average change is a fall of 1.4 deg in recent years; this is similar to all data in that regard. The largest fall from 1st to 5th, to end of month CET, was 5.6 from the 10.1 average of 1st to 5th (including daily record of 12.1 on 1st) in 1775 to the end of month 4.5 C. The second biggest fall was 5.4 in 1812 from 7.1 to 1.7 C. In third place we find 1981 which was 5.4 to the 5th and ended 0.3 C. Last year "fell" from 9.9 to 9.7 :)

     

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Wythall, Worcestershire, 150m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Continental climate, snow winter, sunny summers
  • Location: Wythall, Worcestershire, 150m asl

    What a bonkers month Dec 2015 was, a CET of 13.1 on the 19th LOL!! I'm surprised it didn't have even more of the daily records for the month than just 5 days.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Dundee
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunderstorms, gales. All extremes except humidity.
  • Location: Dundee

    3.6C for me please.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
    2 hours ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

    Is it too late for me to request a small amendment to 5.4C, please?

    Not too late, confirm after reading this (I think others might like to know how this actually works) ...

    A late revised entry would be subject to 10 point deductions per day late. That is ten out of five hundred to put it in some perspective. To gain in the standings, you would need to improve your ranking for the month by about 2-3 ranks to get the position points needed to overcome that. This is based on several cases last year and not a rigorous formula. If your change cannot result in that big a gain, there would be no point in doing it unless you want to have a lower average error. For every 0.6 that you change, your average error could be improved by 0.2 for a season and 0.05 for the year. That can have an effect on points each month.

    For the size of the change you are proposing, and given the fact that you don't move past anybody (as last entrant for 5.4)  I don't think you can gain or lose anything significant whatever the outcome but if you confirm you want to change I will move your position in the table of forecasts and mark it one day late. 

    ________________________________________________

    Also, general note, I have added the four late entries above to the table, now 92 entries and still 3.9 for the median of those. 

     

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Not a fan of heatstroke.
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
    1 minute ago, Roger J Smith said:

    Not too late, confirm after reading this (I think others might like to know how this actually works) ...

    A late revised entry would be subject to 10 point deductions per day late. That is ten out of five hundred to put it in some perspective. To gain in the standings, you would need to improve your ranking for the month by about 2-3 ranks to get the position points needed to overcome that. This is based on several cases last year and not a rigorous formula. If your change cannot result in that big a gain, there would be no point in doing it unless you want to have a lower average error. For every 0.6 that you change, your average error could be improved by 0.2 for a season and 0.05 for the year. That can have an effect on points each month.

    For the size of the change you are proposing, and given the fact that you don't move past anybody (as last entrant for 5.4)  I don't think you can gain or lose anything significant whatever the outcome but if you confirm you want to change I will move your position in the table of forecasts and mark it one day late. 

    ________________________________________________

    Also, general note, I have added the four late entries above to the table, now 92 entries and still 3.9 for the median of those. 

     

    I'll stay with 5.7C, then, please.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
    19 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

    I'll stay with 5.7C, then, please.

    I'm sticking with the 'bogey' figure 5.9°, as first 5 days look chilly, so may not be too high when the Atlantic dominates

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

    6.0c please

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Ashurst, West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow, fog in winter. Warm & dry and thunderstorms in summer
  • Location: Ashurst, West Sussex
    22 hours ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

    how do you know for definite? first 5 days cold yes, but who knows when the Atlantic breaks through on 6th, could dominate rest of month, who knows

    Well I dont know! But surely its extremely unlikely to be as bad as last year. MetO have stuck their neck out that we'll get cold so fingers crossed

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
  • Weather Preferences: Unseasonably cold weather (at all times of year), wind, and thunderstorms.
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
    12 hours ago, Gustywind said:

    What a bonkers month Dec 2015 was, a CET of 13.1 on the 19th LOL!! I'm surprised it didn't have even more of the daily records for the month than just 5 days.

    As bonkers as December 2015 was, in terms of standard deviations from the series mean, May 1833 (15.1C), and October 1740 (5.3C) beat it. Taking the means and standard deviations for May, October, and December for the entire series, excluding the "bonkers" months (as anomalous) in each case, gives

    May: Mean = 11.21C, SD = 1.13

    October: 9.73C, 1.30C

    December: 4.08C, 1.73C

    May 1833 is thus 3.45 SDs from the mean, October 1740 is 3.33 SDs from the mean, and December 2015 is 3.25 SDs from the mean.

    Having said that, May 1833 holds only two date records (15th at 20.0C, 17th at 19.7C). Unfortunately, no data exist for October 1740.

     

    Edit: I totally missed the Junes of 1676 (18.0C) and 1846 (18.2C), which can also claim to beat December 2015 in this regard, at 3.51 and 3.72 SDs above the mean respectively (here, both months were excluded when calculating the SD). April 2011 (11.8C) also comes close, at 3.22 SDs away, as does January 1795 (-3.1C), at 3.24 SDs away. There may well be more but these seem like the obvious candidates to me.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites

    Archived

    This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

    ×
    ×
    • Create New...