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Paul

Storm Angus - the first named storm of the season

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On windswept peninsula on the south coast in a house made of a LOT of glass (seemed like good idea at the time!). Heaviest and most prolonged rainfall of the year I'd say. But it's the wind I'm dreading. Anyone got any idea what time should I expect the worst? Solent / IoW / Selsey Bill. Cheers.

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Evening everybody, what time do you think the worst will hit the Southampton area? 

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Very heavy rain in Dawlish for about 2 hours now and thunder heard about 10 minutes ago.

Satellite tv signal also breaking up now.

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8 minutes ago, Chul said:

Evening everybody, what time do you think the worst will hit the Southampton area? 

Hi Chul

Probably between midnight and 5am, peaking around 3 - 4am.

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Still raining hard here, a gale blowing. Barometer reading fallen 12mb in two hours.

Difficult to judge exact direction of this storm - would expect coast from Hampshire eastwards to be in firing line in early hours.

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Some heavy rain on and off here with light E'ly winds. Very wild across parts of N France and the Channel Islands now. 

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5 minutes ago, Changing Skies said:

Confirmation of a sting jet by Fergie.

 

Good luck to those in the path. Em how long do these things last, will it have blown out before it reaches here.

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The rain has almost ended here.

29.2mm over 12 hours. :)

chart (4).png

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11 minutes ago, Changing Skies said:

Confirmation of a sting jet by Fergie.

 

Regarding the so called 'sting jet' feature. The phenomenon is thought to last only a few hours and it may well be, looking at where the sting jet is now, that it will not pass over land or if it does, will be East Sussex and Kent on Sunday Morning between 3-6 am

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I've just got home from driving from Haywards heath West Sussex to Peacehaven in east Sussex and back to Haywards Heath again.

roads are already flooded in lot's of places, and the amount of leaves on the roads was incredible, some of the country roads I was on you couldn't see any tarmac, just leaves! which will cause worse floods.

 

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Looking at current imagery, and assuming the storm keeps is present track the sting jet looks set to pass mid channel east north east passing north of the channel islands and south of the Isle of White. It may no longer be present when that area of the storm makes landfall but if it is, then probably heading over land at sussex and kent

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1 hour ago, Lazarus42 said:

Wouldn't the "Perth bit" be Sting Jet / Tornado curl producing territory? 

I'd agree

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6 minutes ago, nwextremeweather said:

Looking at current imagery, and assuming the storm keeps is present track the sting jet looks set to pass mid channel east north east passing north of the channel islands and south of the Isle of White. It may no longer be present when that area of the storm makes landfall but if it is, then probably heading over land at sussex and kent

Yuk, it had better blow out.

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Just now, alexisj9 said:

Yuk, it had better blow out.

There are lots of ifs and buts right now. We are assuming that the models have detected the conditions for a sting jet to develop. But we also require something called Conditional Symmetric Instability (CSI) to be present. Certainly strong sting jets only occur in storms which develop CSI in the hook-shaped cloud (where the wrap around on the back side of this storm forms a point)

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Bucketing it down here for the last 20 mins and the wind has picked up from the ESE.

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22mm of rain so far and the winds just starting to pick up. Highest gust 24mph so far.

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25 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/euro4/2016/11/19/basis18/ukuk/ismh/16112003_1918.gif

That might be a mighty close shave. Never seen reds that colour in the channel - if they hit land, I would expect 90mph gusts - but about 15 miles off shore, fortunately

looking around the models a bit more, the latest ARPEGE actually brings the heart of the storm further north, and takes these very strong gusts (up to 90mph) through a line from Swanage through the Isle of Wight and towards Selsey Bill, before relenting to the 80s mph for the rest of the SE coast - this would be around breakfast time.

A good site to follow for wind speed around here: 

http://www.chimet.co.uk/(S(oo3t5i45uofsgo45mxs1ed55))/Default.aspx

Edited by Man With Beard

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At 975.21hPa at the moment. A buoy in the channel shows 967. 

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