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4 minutes ago, yaffle said:

People seem to be getting very animated on the MOD thread. Is it worth getting my hopes up again?

 

 

Hi

Yeah i know what you mean. Im daring to hope lol, but its probably last chance saloon. Winters promised so much so far but delivered little so I can understand your trepidation. I feel the same but as has been said this time we do have all 3 (GFS, UKMO, ECM) showing similar so its good to have them all onboard as UKMO wasnt last time, plus we have the MJO seemingly wanting to play and then added to that some SSW help maybe we can be more confident this time!

Fingers crossed for now and if its still looking good on Friday and over the weekend then i may start to get excited lol :)

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A friend's snowman has started to limbo all by itself.

Some pics from Todmorden

Guys - hope your doing well & enjoying the snow Good luck to all tonight !!!

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Aye just posted on Twitter this chart that shows snow over high ground in the Yorkshire Dales, previous frames show snow over Pennines/Peaks. I would imagine unless you are above 300m though it may be uneventful and above that it may well be a small dusting.

nmm_uk1-1-9-2.thumb.png.ab4b765e91311766d949cdc03a1d3f17.png

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11 minutes ago, vizzy2004 said:

Aye just posted on Twitter this chart that shows snow over high ground in the Yorkshire Dales, previous frames show snow over Pennines/Peaks. I would imagine unless you are above 300m though it may be uneventful and above that it may well be a small dusting.

nmm_uk1-1-9-2.thumb.png.ab4b765e91311766d949cdc03a1d3f17.png

Yes deffo on the tops,i would not think at all anything white would fall out of the sky at my location but in heavier burst's there might be some sleet /wet snow mixed in due to evaperative cooling.

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7 minutes ago, weathermadbarnsleylad said:

Any chance will get any tonight up ere

no,maybe some wet sleet at best WMBL,but i am not a weather god and a few suprises can crop up when least expecting them,as has done in ireland today:)

Edited by Allseasons-si
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5 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Yes deffo on the tops,i would not think at all anything white would fall out of the sky at my location but in heavier burst's there might be some sleet /wet snow mixed in due to evaperative cooling.

Yeah, that already happened in Wales earlier I think, especially with that band at furthest south that looks to have the heaviest precip where the cold air will be undercutting.

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6 minutes ago, vizzy2004 said:

Yeah, that already happened in Wales earlier I think, especially with that band at furthest south that looks to have the heaviest precip where the cold air will be undercutting.

We have some pretty heavy PPN pushing up from the SW very soon,will let you know if i see something white,but more chance in seeing this fella:rofl:

index.jpg.00766c39d469135f1b487c0ae9de5bbe.jpg

Edited by Allseasons-si
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3 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

We have some pretty heavy PPN pushing up from the SW very soon,will let you know if i see something white,but more chance in seeing this fella:rofl:

index.jpg.00766c39d469135f1b487c0ae9de5bbe.jpg

LOL, think your right there. Hopefully this time next week there is some snow to discuss that's not above 1000ft.

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3 minutes ago, vizzy2004 said:

LOL, think your right there. Hopefully this time next week there is some snow to discuss that's not above 1000ft.

We could see the north see freeze over with the - digit uppers coming in and still get nowt lol.

Edited by Allseasons-si
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I was looking out at the back edge around midnight. Just a bit of wet sleet really even up here. Radar looked good but it wasnt much, boo!.

Heres to next weekend lol! Its still looking cold so far :D:cold:

Edited by Winter Cold
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22 minutes ago, Hull snow said:

Who thinks we will get some snow next week then ?

Hard to say re snow this far out still. Its looking mostly dry and cold but things can change and they do. Get the cold in first and the snow will follow is quite often right :)

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Evidence of the power of evaporative cooling at play today, Ingleborough and Pen-y-Gent thick with snow from about 450 metres, however, only a few miles west and north ground at similiar heights had notably less snow, and the Howgills only a dusting. Snow cover on the higher lakeland fells fairly patchy in nature. Key reason for the difference, the precipitation was much heavier in the Ribble Valley area, it was quite light over here. Evidence of snow down to 400 metres, with a patchy cover still at the road summit top end of Dentdale/Gayle Moor area.

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Arpege Model has widespread snowfall for Eastern England in just 44hrs courtesy of front moving west to east 

Surely it cant be cold enough, is this model wide of the mark or is there some viability to it ? arpegeuk-1-44-0.thumb.png.9466a6e5673d98e0d2cf48559c84447d.png

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6 minutes ago, bryan629 said:

Arpege Model has widespread snowfall for Eastern England in just 44hrs courtesy of front moving west to east 

Surely it cant be cold enough, is this model wide of the mark or is there some viability to it ?

 arpegeuk-1-44-0.thumb.png.9466a6e5673d98e0d2cf48559c84447d.png

 

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1 hour ago, bryan629 said:

6 hours on and the Arperge is still seeing snow crossing the region 

arpegeuk-1-38-0.thumb.png.a6c96ab0daefb918af95959600f63c5a.png

Not sure what the Arpege is basing that on. Uppers look like being around -2/-3 at best, so if there is anything wintry I think it'd only be over the hills.

Strange it's the Arpege showing it that widespread though, as from personal experience the Arpege is one of the least snowy short range models.

NMM seems much more realistic...

nmm_uk1-1-36-0.png?05-18

Edited by Cold Winter
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1 hour ago, Cold Winter said:

Not sure what the Arpege is basing that on. Uppers look like being around -2/-3 at best, so if there is anything wintry I think it'd only be over the hills.

Strange it's the Arpege showing it that widespread though, as from personal experience the Arpege is one of the least snowy short range models.

NMM seems much more realistic...

nmm_uk1-1-36-0.png?05-18

yes i noticed.. uppers don`t have to be low with a cold undercutting in a continental feed, albeit in this case we should be importing a cold south /south easterly, so dew points maybe just about cold enough 

Perhaps maybe possibly the timing of the front over a cold surface combined maybe with evaporative cooling.. and low dew points might deliver the white stuff to low levels. its interesting all the same as other models are not seeing this, perhaps maybe a surprise for some :) 

Heres the dew points for the same time.. not brilliant but maybe just enough , but then throw in the rate of PPN.. could just tip it to a lot of snow :) 

arpegeuk-18-37-0.thumb.png.8d0d6e3595574ddb95d112c8c6016958.png

Edited by bryan629
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26 minutes ago, bryan629 said:

yes i noticed.. uppers don`t have to be low with a cold undercutting in a continental feed, albeit in this case we should be importing a cold south /south easterly, so dew points maybe just about cold enough 

Perhaps maybe possibly the timing of the front over a cold surface combined maybe with evaporative cooling.. and low dew points might deliver the white stuff to low levels. its interesting all the same as other models are not seeing this, perhaps maybe a surprise for some :) 

Heres the dew points for the same time.. not brilliant but maybe just enough , but then throw in the rate of PPN.. could just tip it to a lot of snow :) 

arpegeuk-18-37-0.thumb.png.8d0d6e3595574ddb95d112c8c6016958.png

Still think those dew points aren't anywhere near low enough. Anyway, we'll see! Always up for a surprise.

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31 minutes ago, Cold Winter said:

Still think those dew points aren't anywhere near low enough. Anyway, we'll see! Always up for a surprise.

 

58 minutes ago, bryan629 said:

yes i noticed.. uppers don`t have to be low with a cold undercutting in a continental feed, albeit in this case we should be importing a cold south /south easterly, so dew points maybe just about cold enough 

Perhaps maybe possibly the timing of the front over a cold surface combined maybe with evaporative cooling.. and low dew points might deliver the white stuff to low levels. its interesting all the same as other models are not seeing this, perhaps maybe a surprise for some :) 

Heres the dew points for the same time.. not brilliant but maybe just enough , but then throw in the rate of PPN.. could just tip it to a lot of snow :) 

arpegeuk-18-37-0.thumb.png.8d0d6e3595574ddb95d112c8c6016958.png

Could be a nice surprise, we'll have to wait and see! Could be a boxing day 2014 repeat, yes please haha!

BBC forecast for tomorrow evening says: 'However cloud will gradually thicken, with winds also strengthening, as rain and hill snow spreads into western parts by dusk.' so there must be some signal there :)

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