Yorkshire & E England Regional Weather Discussion

[Kentish Snowman in Yorks]

I know you we should take these snow forecasts with a truck load of salt but we are heading for Ski Sunday if the 12z GFS is to be believed....

And the snow is still hanging on nine hours later!  Pennine areas especially look like taking a hammering!

Could all be gone on the next run but something worth keeping an eye on...

[The PIT]

eye too early to be sure but you never know.

[Kentish Snowman in Yorks]

1 hour ago, The PIT said:

eye too early to be sure but you never know.

Great ECM run for us as well.  I am starting to get very interested in the synoptics from Sunday onwards now.

The potential is there for alot of snow to fall over an extended period with the prospect of height rises to our NE also creeping into the mid term outlook.  

Edited December 5, 2017 by Kentish Snowman

[Craigers]

ECM snow depth charts for Sunday (only for guidance)

[Kentish Snowman in Yorks]

The forecaster on Look North just declared that Friday and Saturday will be cold and windy with a few wintry showers and then milder and wetter on Sunday!  That's winter over then!  

[cheese]

4 minutes ago, Kentish Snowman said:

The forecaster on Look North just declared that Friday and Saturday will be cold and windy with a few wintry showers and then milder and wetter on Sunday!  That's winter over then!  

Sounds like rubbish to me.

[LeeSnowFan]

Morning! 

Well it's that time of year again!

where we hope and pray for snow! 

[sausage]

getting a little fed up of this great potential setup producing near to nothing for us yet again!!

latest gfs missing us altogether!!

[Kentish Snowman in Yorks]

11 hours ago, Kentish Snowman said:

The forecaster on Look North just declared that Friday and Saturday will be cold and windy with a few wintry showers and then milder and wetter on Sunday!  That's winter over then!  

Looks like the milder and wetter Sunday might be out the window looking at the latest 6z GFS run!  

@sausage it will probably change again on the next run but I would rather have a Southerly correction than a Northerly one.  Keeps us colder for longer and the chance of snow events popping up at short notice remains!  I wouldnt mind betting that some of our region gets a covering tomorrow night as long as the wind direction remains WNW and not NW.

This looks like potential for us...

Edited December 6, 2017 by Kentish Snowman

[terrier]

Well massive correction south on the gfs06z for our region. But keeps us under colder for longer. So we might see a few flurries here and there. But can’t see much in the way of substantial snowfall like the ecm is showing for our region. 

[Barking_Mad]

MEH! That latest run is a disappointment if it happens. Went from potentially lots of snow to potentially no snow!

 

BOOO!!!!!!

[Always a red]

23 minutes ago, Kentish Snowman said:

Looks like the milder and wetter Sunday might be out the window looking at the latest 6z GFS run!  

@sausage it will probably change again on the next run but I would rather have a Southerly correction than a Northerly one.  Keeps us colder for longer and the chance of snow events popping up at short notice remains!  I wouldnt mind betting that some of our region gets a covering tomorrow night as long as the wind direction remains WNW and not NW.

This looks like potential for us...

My (very amateur) thoughts exactly, short term pain for hopefully many longer term snow chances

[Kentish Snowman in Yorks]

13 minutes ago, Barking_Mad said:

MEH! That latest run is a disappointment if it happens. Went from potentially lots of snow to potentially no snow!

 

BOOO!!!!!!

If it is going to go to the wire we would prefer that our two options be cold and snowy or cold and dry rather than cold and snowy or mild and wet surely?

This correction South gives us much more margin for error IMHO.....

Edited December 6, 2017 by Kentish Snowman

[Gray-Wolf]

Well I'm sure I'll see it snow on Sunday but it'll be wet snow and slush up prior to the refreeze over night. Ankle breaker conditions by Monday morning I fear!

[joggs]

Anybody think the snow showers will make it over the peninnes this thursday/Friday?.

Just for the record I think the main band will have a northern edge around north York's Sunday.

Gfs overdoing it imho.

Just been looking through a few slider moments from the past(with blocking to our east and no blocking).

 

[Kentish Snowman in Yorks]

30 minutes ago, joggs said:

Anybody think the snow showers will make it over the peninnes this thursday/Friday?

 

Some areas (more likely South and West Yorkshire) may get a covering Thursday night perhaps?

Met Office update for next week sounding quite wintry now.  Local forecast for my area on Sunday starting to look good as well...

Obviously not going with the 6z GFS run!  

[Barking_Mad]

2 hours ago, Kentish Snowman said:

If it is going to go to the wire we would prefer that our two options be cold and snowy or cold and dry rather than cold and snowy or mild and wet surely?

This correction South gives us much more margin for error IMHO.....

OH I quite agree. I was hoping for a bit of snow, that's all  Still it might yet happen. I've seen so many occasions where there's no forecast for snow yet it comes tumbling out of the sky!

 

Edit: Met Office showing heavy snow for NW Leeds on Sunday afternoon between 3pm and 6pm, but GFS charts dont show any precipitation about. 

Edited December 6, 2017 by Barking_Mad

[Barking_Mad]

BBC have weather warnings for snow and ice on Friday and Saturday, but no snow in any of the symbols. Sunday has no weather warning but heavy snow in the symbols.

[Spikecollie]

I am confused too! Should we anticipate gales and snow or wall to wall sunshine on what will be a cold day? The MO and BBC don't do themselves any favours...

[cowdog]

Hmm thats interesting, the Euro4 model is showing the snow covering all the Pennines tomorrow night. Was expecting little as the longer range models were showing it not really getting near here, but might end up with a bit more than a dusting if thats right.

https://amz.nwstatic.co.uk/monthly_2017_12/42.gif.d3eb065f36737ba8d7c53d6dd3615076.gif

[Barking_Mad]

I asked Met Office on Twitter about it and I had a reply with a forecast for NW Leeds (Pudsey, Leeds/Bradford/Bramley/Farsley/Horsforth)

Quote

 Dan @ Met Office: "Possible snow across the region: Very cold Friday and Saturday with strong winds, with possible snow showers. Bright but cold start Sunday, risk of rain, sleet or snow later with a snow and ice warning on friday and saturday" 

 

[BA Baracus]

The met office snow/ice warning has moved ever so slightly eastward. Now covers much of west Yorkshire with Leeds and Wakefield on the eastern edge.

[terrier]

Well the gfs12z follows on from the gfs06z. Can’t see much snow for our region maybe a dusting at best. Looks abit like a none event regarding snow. But it’s going be cold with some sharp frosts 

[Love Snow]

6 minutes ago, terrier said:

Well the gfs12z follows on from the gfs06z. Can’t see much snow for our region maybe a dusting at best. Looks abit like a none event regarding snow. But it’s going be cold with some sharp frosts 

You said the same a few years back and we had the best snow fall in years? I'm no expert but nobody knows what will happen Sunday,it's too far out to call?

West Yorkshire been upgraded by the met. so you never know in these situations as you should know from the past events and your doom and gloom posts.

It changes on every run.

Edited December 6, 2017 by Love Snow

[joggs]

6 minutes ago, terrier said:

Well the gfs12z follows on from the gfs06z. Can’t see much snow for our region maybe a dusting at best. Looks abit like a none event regarding snow. But it’s going be cold with some sharp frosts 

And other models have it further north.