SE England and EA Regional Weather Discussion

[lassie23]

18 minutes ago, bluebell said:

Ha that's funny earlier on at work a really aggressive squall line came marching through. The office base I'm at faces right on the sea front, so you really feel the effects there. I pressed my face against the window and shrieked 'I think it's snowing a bit to!' Caused a brief flurry of excitement amongst my peers before they realised it was all a part of my lurid snowy weather fantasy disorder! I work for a mental health service and planning to submit weather fetishes of any kind as a formally classified mental health diagnosis! 

I think the only treatment available is frequent blizzard exposure.

[bluebell]

30 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

I think the only treatment available is frequent blizzard exposure.

Ha, yes can you imagine asking the NHS to fund 'therapy blizzard exposure trips' to Lapland. Frankly it's bad enough getting them to fund enough paper to print letters etc on. Still when they produced enough evidence that CBT was new wonder cure for anxiety and depression they piled money into training up CBT therapists and still are as far as I know. Perhaps a research project needs to be funded into 'can blizzard exposure alleviate obsessive behaviour in relation to desiring snowy weather conditions to an unhealthy debilitating level' 

[lassie23]

3 minutes ago, bluebell said:

Ha, yes can you imagine asking the NHS to fund 'therapy blizzard exposure trips' to Lapland. Frankly it's bad enough getting them to fund enough paper to print letters etc on. Still when they produced enough evidence that CBT was new wonder cure for anxiety and depression they piled money into training up CBT therapists and still are as far as I know. Perhaps a research project needs to be funded into 'can blizzard exposure alleviate obsessive behaviour in relation to desiring snowy weather conditions to an unhealthy debilitating level' 

Does cognitive blizzard therapy actually work?

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Morning peeps,

Weekend low still not nailed yet.. High res starting to come in now 

Now a wanna make a few quick comments to those who feel it is "nothing out the ordinary" 

Yeah you are right.. We have these every year and usually much worse. But we haven't had a proper storm like this one in a little while maybe even over a year!

 

[stainesbloke]

1 hour ago, Surrey said:

Morning peeps,

Weekend low still not nailed yet.. High res starting to come in now 

Now a wanna make a few quick comments to those who feel it is "nothing out the ordinary" 

Yeah you are right.. We have these every year and usually much worse. But we haven't had a proper storm like this one in a little while maybe even over a year!

 

Am watching this with interest. Hoping it stays to the south and the gales affect France rather than here. It'll be wet though. 

Speaking of gales, did anyone else notice the wind strength going a bit crazy for an hour or so yesterday afternoon?! Then it died down again quite suddenly. No showers or squall went through at that time, in fact it was sunny! Thought it a bit odd.

Edited November 18, 2016 by stainesbloke

[Ben Lewis]

Looks like half the weekend is going to be written off by a boring Atlantic low pressure system. Bit of Rain and a bit of Wind.... Yawn....Zzzzzz

Tough old read through the MOD thread, all the cold promise is still 10-15days away.. Just as it was this time last week.

At least its Friday and next week looking a lot my fair weather wise for my 6am morning running.

 

[Blessed Weather]

Lovely sunny start here but after an overnight min of 2.2C it's a bit chilly. Fantastic satellite image this morning showing a very large number of showers coming into the west of the UK. For us, there's an occluded front running along the south coast (shows up nicely) so it looks like the clear skies might turn hazy or disappear entirely soon. 

[mishy]

Hey

It's that time of the year when I come back on here and confuse myself with the model thread lol.

I want it to snow every winter, and this winter is no different...apart from hoping we don't get a blizzard on the 9th December as I'm flying to Thailand for three weeks 

I know it's still three weeks away, but does anybody think we could get heavy snow by then? 

Edited November 18, 2016 by mishy

[lassie23]

7.7c here today and sunny.

[Blessed Weather]

This morning I mentioned the occluded front moving along the South Coast. Here's how it looked earlier this afternoon as it passed to the south of my location. Clearly it would have been a dull, grey afternoon further to my south, but it didn't really spoil things here - in fact it gave us some interesting cirrus displays. 

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

1 hour ago, Blessed Weather said:

This morning I mentioned the occluded front moving along the South Coast. Here's how it looked earlier this afternoon as it passed to the south of my location. Clearly it would have been a dull, grey afternoon further to my south, but it didn't really spoil things here - in fact it gave us some interesting cirrus displays. 

Fine view you have there. Malcom - that plastered cottage is about as Suffolk as it gets (so sayeth a Norfolkman LOL).  Is is pargetted?

[Emz by the Thames]

Have never noticed the 'torrential' orange bar on NWx precip forceast before - but it appears for early Sunday morn!

A belated Happy birthday to Dami!

Owing to living in a small flat with new furniture, there is no room for an xmas tree, so I went on Pintrest and found a funky hanging xmas tree to make using large sticks. Question is - do I snap/chop the sticks off the trees in the sun tomorrow - or just wait for Sunday and see what tree debris is on the ground after the wind and rain!!

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Evening peeps,

Weekend is now upon us! WOOOHOOO!!!! 

Although I don't think the weather will be to kind to us... 

Tomorrow looks okay .. Little breezy but should stay dry maybe the chance of a rouge shower...

However, from about 8pm Saturday night onwards things begin to go down hill..

 

The NMM/ ARPEGE are roughly along the same lines RE wind speed with the GFS toned down slightly although the ARPEGE has a tendency to over cook it slightly..

Coastal areas of Kent look worst and Say from Brighton to Dover on the South Coast. 70pmh can't be ruled out in exsposed spots.

Immediately inland from coastal areas 50-60mph perhaps again a touch higher with any elevation 

Inland areas and into London 40-50mph looks the ticket. The met have got it right I think with the warning I would say a line diagonal from IOW through Reading and across central London anything South of that will take the brunt of any winds.

Main concern however is rainfall totals from Sat night through to Tuesday.. Remember a week or so ago I said mother nature likes to balance herself out? Well all that dry weather we have had from Summer is about to be made back up.

GFS

(I think because the GFS is not high res, it struggles massively with PPN.)

ARPEGE

EURO 4 only goes out to Sunday but looking at it it's going along with the ARPEGE

And finally Net weathers model take on the rough PPN track and intensity (Just for Sat/Sunday low)

Flooding an issue here, then we get slammed again on Monday.. Winds not an issue (yet)  but rain will be.. Will comment Sunday. The GFS 12z has deepend the low along with the GFS 06z this morning

Pretty amazing chart you can see Sundays low moving North with its sister inbound.. (Yes I haven't posted Sundays charts again this is Monday)

   

 

Will be on over the weekend to monitor live weather ETC you can now see Saturday nights low taking shape in the Atlantic.. Following the boundary of warmer and colder air (taken 12:15)

Red line warm air

Blue line cold air 

 

And finally surface pressure as of 14:15 this afternoon already indicating that it is now a "developing storm"

 

 

 

Edited November 18, 2016 by Surrey

[pegg24]

7 hours ago, mishy said:

Hey

It's that time of the year when I come back on here and confuse myself with the model thread lol.

I want it to snow every winter, and this winter is no different...apart from hoping we don't get a blizzard on the 9th December as I'm flying to Thailand for three weeks 

I know it's still three weeks away, but does anybody think we could get heavy snow by then? 

I do it every year wish wouldn't look in there couple of good charts they are on there saying 1946 1947. 1962 1963. then few charts go bad it's like they want to slit their wrists.

 

Edited November 18, 2016 by pegg24

[tinybill]

looking  at what  could  be  heading  our  way  early sunday  we  might  have  to batten  down could  get  a  bit wild  at  times

[NO LONGER POSTING]

4 minutes ago, tinybill said:

looking  at what  could  be  heading  our  way  early sunday  we  might  have  to batten  down could  get  a  bit wild  at  times

2 possible wild events to come.. Clear the drains of any leaves!!!

[Delka]

This would be pretty disastrous if this one were to come off.. Luckily its so far out at the end of the run it should get downgraded.. hopefully

[NO LONGER POSTING]

5 minutes ago, Delka said:

This would be pretty disastrous if this one were to come off.. Luckily its so far out at the end of the run it should get downgraded.. hopefully

Evening! Yes, it's pretty mental but like you say so far out it won't verify like that.

While not an impossible "theory" the odds of a storm like that is probably 1/1000 years ish 

 

[Mark wheeler]

A little moan from me. It seems in the mod thread that ECM is king again and that GFS is rubbish again etc but just 2 days ago . GFS was the one better in these situations etc. The cold hopefully will come but seems like an eternity already waiting . There are some fantastic posters in there and I really appreciate the time they give up. I'm just frustrated and want my bloody snow . It's only November and I'm already exuasted this year .

 

Edited November 18, 2016 by Mark wheeler

[Blessed Weather]

3 hours ago, Surrey said:

Evening peeps,

Weekend is now upon us! WOOOHOOO!!!! 

Although I don't think the weather will be to kind to us... 

(post snipped)

 

Great post @Surrey Enjoyed reading that.

[bluebell]

36 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

A little moan from me. It seems in the mod thread that ECM is king again and that GFS is rubbish again etc but just 2 days ago . GFS was the one better in these situations etc. The cold hopefully will come but seems like an eternity already waiting . There are some fantastic posters in there and I really appreciate the time they give up. I'm just frustrated and want my bloody snow . It's only November and I'm already exuasted this year .

 

Yes I sympathise with you on that one, I need to stop reading the mod thread as frequently as I do (seems like all day every day!). I find myself ridiculous it can start to dictate what mood I will end up, absurd considering it's all based on a machine predicting weather which hasn't even happened!! 

Current weather: a heavy rain/hail shower just passed through, woke the cats that are happily snoozing by the fire, they looked up all alarmed, all settled again now though. 

Also thanks Surrey for you 'windy summary' earlier very informative. 

[Mark wheeler]

I see a couple of sock puppets on the latest runs.

 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

@Blessed Weather @bluebell cheers guys, thank you!!

I like doing the more detailed posts on something I'm more clued up on lol! 

Will do another one on Sunday for the next low (if the current runs don't change) 

 

Edited November 18, 2016 by Surrey

[Blessed Weather]

3 hours ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

Fine view you have there. Malcom - that plastered cottage is about as Suffolk as it gets (so sayeth a Norfolkman LOL).  Is is pargetted?

Hi Chris. Actually that house isn't that many years old, so no pargetting, although it definitely looks like there should be! But there are some wonderful houses in Hadleigh High Street dating back to 1500 that are covered in pargetting. Very impressive the effort that used to go into making your house stand out from your neighbours! For folk who maybe haven't seen pargetting, here's a photo of one dated 1618 from my High Street:

 

[tinybill]

1 hour ago, Surrey said:

Evening! Yes, it's pretty mental but like you say so far out it won't verify like that.

While not an impossible "theory" the odds of a storm like that is probably 1/1000 years ish 

we  all  know  what  happen reg  the  great  storm