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SE England and EA Regional Weather Discussion

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We could be on the cusp of 2 or 3 snow events in the SE but we could also see just plain rain!!. Nothing is ever simple when it comes to snow and until i see it coming down tomorrow i will contain my excitement!!Good luck to everyone in the Region and hope we are the right side of marginal and the weather is close to the ECM. If it is we could be in business and the sledge will be coming out lol!!

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Looking at some of the airport TAFs in the SE, Stansted (Essex) and Heathrow shows heavy snow forecast:

Stansted: Temporary from 12 at 17 UTC to 12 at 21 UTC Visibility: 0600 m Broken clouds at a height of 200 ft snow

TAF: EGSS 111704Z 1118/1224 28012KT 9999 SCT045 PROB30 TEMPO 1118/1121 30015G25KT BECMG 1210/1213 21007KT 7000 -RA BKN012 TEMPO 1211/1215 RA BKN008 TEMPO 1212/1217 09010KT BECMG 1215/1218 01015KT TEMPO 1215/1217 3000 RASN BKN004 TEMPO 1217/1221 0600 SN BKN002 PROB30 TEMPO 1217/1221 35023G38KT 0200 +SN BKN000 BECMG 1218/1221 29015G25KT 9999 NSW SCT045

Heathrow: Temporary from 12 at 16 UTC to 12 at 19 UTC Wind 24 kt from the North/Northwest with gusts up to 38 kt Visibility: 0500 m Broken clouds at a height of 100 ft heavy snow

TAF: EGLL 111715Z 1118/1224 30012KT 9999 SCT045 BECMG 1203/1206 24008KT BECMG 1209/1212 8000 -RA BKN012 TEMPO 1211/1216 4000 +RA BKN008 BECMG 1212/1215 15010KT BECMG 1215/1217 32018G28KT TEMPO 1216/1220 0800 RASN SN BKN004 PROB30 TEMPO 1216/1219 33024G38KT 0500 +SN BKN001 BECMG 1220/1223 29012KT 9999 NSW FEW030

Edited by Nick F

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13 minutes ago, loafer said:

It is also a lot colder on the ECM, and as the models converge, it could get interesting.

The usually conservative Phil Avery ramping the snow for our region in the 1035 London forecast. Snow after 1800 Thursday then another lot Friday morning a "double whammy" for commuters. I'm still worried about UHI effect in central London but usual favoured spots – Dunstable, Epping Forest, South Downs look to have a decent shout of some accumulations. 

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I'm quite excited about tomorrow and think there may be some surprises for people! I think with some zones of intense precipitation we'll see a base laid down for further showers into Friday.  

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The thoughts as of mid afternoon today regarding the airport-specific forecasts for tomorrow were for 60% chance of 0-2cm accumulations, 40% chance of 2-5cm and 10% chance in excess of 5cm for all the London airports. - Industry email.

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Look how busy this thread has become, usually lucky to see half a dozen posts a day!

Something happening? :aggressive:

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We've waited 3 years for snow and now might get 3 snow events in 4 days...... Arriva Buses spring to mind! :rofl:

Anyway in the car tomorrow I'll pack a dingy and a sledge,  just to be on the safe side :sorry:

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hi everyone i lurking for a while i thought it would be a blink and you will miss it affair but i think it will surprise us

i thought this winter would be a snowless one   looks like i was wrong :oops:

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I've been meaning to get more into contributing to the forum in the last few years and never got around to doing so... think now is the time. Bought a weather station finally this year too so fully embracing the weather community:)

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21 minutes ago, OfficialKevWX said:

This discussion has really blown up in the last couple of days

It'll blow up alright by 9pm tomorrow in this thread when all we been doing is watching rain for 6hrs and no snow :D

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Oh man this is getting exciting,please mother nature give us what we deserve its been 4 years,4 long depressing mild drab crappy rainy windy winters,dag nam it,I just want to see flakes falling,I need to run outside with my tongue out and catch some

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1 minute ago, snowrye said:

Oh man this is getting exciting,please mother nature give us what we deserve its been 4 years,4 long depressing mild drab crappy rainy windy winters,dag nam it,I just want to see flakes falling,I need to run outside with my tongue out and catch some

Don't eat the yellow ones :help:

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My money is on rain to snow transition around 5pm for anyone with a little elevation..

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GFS tephigram for Heathrow Thursday..

3pm>Surface Temp 4c> freezing level 3000ft

6pm>Surface Temp 2c> freezing level 1500ft

9pm>Surface Temp 0.5c> freezing level 500ft

Cold advection and evaporative cooling = Rain turning to Snow

Edited by Kent Blizzard

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5 hours ago, Daniel Smith said:

Rather annoyed that i'm working a 10-8 shift tomorrow and Friday so I wont be able to track the radar on either snow risk day, but hoping to step outside of work at 8pm tomorrow into heavy snowfall and if I'm lucky, settling snowfall too! 

Me too I'm doing 2-10pm in Milton Keynes

But shall be sneaking outside to have a look!

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Morning all, it's been a while :rofl:

Interesting 36 hours ahead with many of us seeing at least something snow-wise!

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Morning @essexweather. Yes euro4 also sticking to its guns and showing snow! 

We await for the latest METO update 

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So here we are, the first day of colder weather, fingers crossed people get some snow today. :good:

Edited by Captain Shortwave

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Morning all it's 4 degree and dropping here in Farnham, Surrey. 

Looking forward to a day of 'will it, won't it' 

it's not going to be easy at work this morning with no access to the radars/forum!! 

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I've had a good look through the midnight runs and my latest thoughts for today and tomorrow's snow events are here: http://essexweather.weebly.com/blog/severe-weather-and-coastal-flooding

It seems the intensity of the snow is less on the past two runs, hence the Amber warning is yet to materialise from Exeter. The next assessment will be 10.30am and it will be at that point the existing warnings are updated. It's then or never for the Amber upgrade for parts of London / Home Counties.

The risk of heavy (disruptive) snow remains 60% for higher ground, less so at lower levels according to the latest guidance statement from 3AM. The chance of an all rain event does remain - heartbreaking as it would be - but something we all have to remember in such a marginal situation.

Going to be a busy day on this thread and I wish everyone the best of luck. It's been so many years since we've had such a decent opportunity for snow!

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Beat me to it!

0z and the 18z Euro4 certainly far less intense with the snow signal than the previous runs (a common theme from Euro4 in previous such events too), largely owing to a slightly more southerly track and therefore slightly less interaction with the colder air and a little later than previously too.

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Yes, the euro 4 00z is a little disappointing but looking at 850s and thicknesses they actually look a little better and from an earlier time. 

Personally think now is the time to stop looking at the models and start looking up at the sky!

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6 minutes ago, snowking said:

Beat me to it!

0z and the 18z Euro4 certainly far less intense with the snow signal than the previous runs (a common theme from Euro4 in previous such events too), largely owing to a slightly more southerly track and therefore slightly less interaction with the colder air and a little later than previously too.

Actually, further south is better not worse. It means the milder air does not make as much in roads and colder air can under cut quicker. 

There really is not much change on the models at all including the EURO4 gfs is useless now as it's not high enough res. 

Waiting on seeing what the met say at around 10:30am this morning. 

I'm sitting at 40% still, if it rains it rains if we get snow we get snow. 

 

EDIT: Yes just refreshed page and seen 00z EURO4.  Yes on face value it looks a lot worse this model has a habbit of doing this and I have seen this model wrong many times. 

Also note it is 6hr gaps and not 3hr!!

 

Edited by Surrey

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