SE England and EA Regional Weather Discussion

[Met4Cast]

7 minutes ago, Changing Skies said:

I have done so in the past, we both have I've had some success. 

Might produce a shoddy looking graphic since it's the best stab of proper snowfall since 2013. I note a MetO graphic goes for the risk albeit a low risk of 10-15cm for lowland areas.

Here it is

 

[JennyJane1]

The entire east coast from kings lynn to felixstowe is under a flood warning for tonight and its getting rather windy outside here now.

[fulham snow]

looks like it could be game over as most of any snow further north so the south east in the warn sector,

[snow freak]

39 minutes ago, lawrenk said:

I've nothing to back this up, other than instinct, but I think you may be pleasantly surprised.

I'd also completely back the previous post in that  I've been amazed in the past to see snow suddenly start settling on wet surfaces as soon as other conditions become favourable.

i have seen snow settling on very wet surfaces after hours of rain before it turns to snow and I'm always amazed at how snow starts to stick on wet surfaces if it comes down heavy enough and the temp and dew points fall.  you wouldn't think it is possible until you actually see it happening.  This has happened lots of times in Northampton the past few years.

[Kent Blizzard]

Jeez can't get my links to work, can someone tell me if the Euro4 is out yet please

[stainesbloke]

5 minutes ago, snow freak said:

i have seen snow settling on very wet surfaces after hours of rain before it turns to snow and I'm always amazed at how snow starts to stick on wet surfaces if it comes down heavy enough and the temp and dew points fall.  you wouldn't think it is possible until you actually see it happening.  This has happened lots of times in Northampton the past few years.

I've seen this too a few times, once the temperatures fall to near freezing then the snow starts to stick. I remember such an occasion in the 80's when it poured with rain all day at 6C. As the evening wore on the temperatures dropped rapidly and the rain turned to snow. Come the next morning everything was covered in a good 10cm of snow and it was an ice day.

[Seasonality]

14 minutes ago, fulham snow said:

looks like it could be game over as most of any snow further north so the south east in the warn sector,

Firstly, hello all. I don't usually post in the regionals but here we go. @fulham snow I'm not sure what output you're looking at but I also have my doubts. ECM doesn't seem interested, meteogram from 00z is attached. I'm personally skeptical as to how much will settle, but then Met Office are issuing warnings so who knows? Any thoughts anyone?

[Stroudley]

1 hour ago, Changing Skies said:

In the sunshine it felt quite warm, there's a distinct possibility when it does turn it will come down thick and fast, it may do so quite extensively I have a feeling we're in for a surprise. 

 

Out cutting the hedge this morning, the sun was warm - almost spring-like, no wind and 9 degrees. More cloud now and breeze picking up - change is on the way.

 

[stainesbloke]

8 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

Firstly, hello all. I don't usually post in the regionals but here we go. @fulham snow I'm not sure what output you're looking at but I also have my doubts. ECM doesn't seem interested, meteogram from 00z is attached. I'm personally skeptical as to how much will settle, but then Met Office are issuing warnings so who knows? Any thoughts anyone?

Hello! As we all know, snow is extremely difficult to forecast, the Met Office are warning that snow could settle and cause some disruption but will more likely be rain, certainly initially. Probably will come down to nowcasting, quite a marginal situation as it often is here.

Edited January 11, 2017 by stainesbloke

[Weather Boy]

17 minutes ago, snow freak said:

i have seen snow settling on very wet surfaces after hours of rain before it turns to snow and I'm always amazed at how snow starts to stick on wet surfaces if it comes down heavy enough and the temp and dew points fall.  you wouldn't think it is possible until you actually see it happening.  This has happened lots of times in Northampton the past few years.

Obviously a frozen surface is ideal, but I am not sure that it makes any difference if a surface is wet (based on experience).  The rain that has fallen is presumably close to being freezing cold, same as the ground on a dry but not freezing surface, so why would it inhibit settling of the snow? 

Maybe someone with better grasp of physics than me can put me straight.

[bluearmy]

Several hours on and still no continuity from the short range hi res products so stay tuned as could be different again by six pm! 

[Seasonality]

7 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

Hello! As we all know, snow is extremely difficult to forecast, the Met Office are warning that snow could settle and cause some disruption but will more likely be rain, certainly initially. Probably will come down to nowcasting, quite a marginal situation as it often is here.

Where did you get that map? Had a look on Meto website but couldn't find it. 

[Seasonality]

5 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Several hours on and still no continuity from the short range hi res products so stay tuned as could be different again by six pm! 

What high res models have you been looking at?

[snowking]

^^^

indeed.

To give you some idea of the continued spread of solutions still on show, Euro4 vs 0z ECM:

Also worth noting that there are countless times that I've seen the Euro4 (and formerly the NAE) showing a track of precipitation even at T+6 which is entirely at odds with the radar returns. It will very much be one of those let's wait and see days from about 3pm onwards. Nocturnal cooling should aid us somewhat and as a result we want to see the progress of the frontal system be as slow as possible.

 

[Seasonality]

2 minutes ago, snowking said:

^^^

indeed.

To give you some idea of the continued spread of solutions still on show, Euro4 vs 0z ECM:

Also worth noting that there are countless times that I've seen the Euro4 (and formerly the NAE) showing a track of precipitation even at T+6 which is entirely at odds with the radar returns. It will very much be one of those let's wait and see days from about 3pm onwards. Nocturnal cooling should aid us somewhat and as a result we want to see the progress of the frontal system be as slow as possible.

 

This was what I was scratching my head about, Euro4 vs ECM.

[stratty]

28 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

I've seen this too a few times, once the temperatures fall to near freezing then the snow starts to stick. I remember such an occasion in the 80's when it poured with rain all day at 6C. As the evening wore on the temperatures dropped rapidly and the rain turned to snow. Come the next morning everything was covered in a good 10cm of snow and it was an ice day.

...........I remember a day like this too, back in the 80s. I think was in March (late in the season) and on a Sunday(???!!!) -I'd love to see an archive chart for this, as it really was raining hard all morning but then it was like someone had switched the snowmachine on and within half an hour it was a magical winter wonderland and just kept going all evening. One of those lovely snow day memories from the past that still keeps me enthused today!

Edited January 11, 2017 by stratty

[Kent Blizzard]

Way into FI but..

Outlook for the UK over the next 6-30 days

UK Outlook for Monday 16 Jan 2017 to Wednesday 25 Jan 2017:

Through Monday, a band of rain will slowly move west across the UK to affect many central and western parts of the country. The precipitation could be wintry on its leading edge with the risk of snow over higher ground. Further east, it will be drier and brighter but with the risk of snow showers in places. Through Tuesday, colder but drier and brighter conditions are expected to push west across the country but with a continued risk of snow showers across the east. Thereafter, many areas will be dry and fine with an increasing risk of frost and fog, with any rain restricted to the northwest. It will stay cold, especially in the east and south, where sleet or snow showers are also possible.

Updated at: 1223 on Wed 11 Jan 2017

Meto Outlook

Nice little update and no sign of the mild that some was suggesting? 

Edited January 11, 2017 by Kent Blizzard

[Jimmyh]

wish me luck I am venturing into the MAD thread

[fulham snow]

Just now, Jimmyh said:

wish me luck I am venturing into the MAD thread

Don't go there unless you don't like your sanity

[Methuselah]

17 minutes ago, Weather Boy said:

Obviously a frozen surface is ideal, but I am not sure that it makes any difference if a surface is wet (based on experience).  The rain that has fallen is presumably close to being freezing cold, same as the ground on a dry but not freezing surface, so why would it inhibit settling of the snow? 

Maybe someone with better grasp of physics than me can put me straight.

I think I agree with you, WB...Away from major towns, I've seen sleet (in the form of ready-made slush!) settle, on wet ground; whereas, at other times (usually within large conurbations?) snow that fell on dry ground has not...

As you say, given the right ambient conditions (ground temp, DB and WB temps) falling snow will have no option but to settle...The melting point of ice is pretty constant??

[pegg24]

44 minutes ago, snow freak said:

i have seen snow settling on very wet surfaces after hours of rain before it turns to snow and I'm always amazed at how snow starts to stick on wet surfaces if it comes down heavy enough and the temp and dew points fall.  you wouldn't think it is possible until you actually see it happening.  This has happened lots of times in Northampton the past few years.

Let's hope so noticed upgrades for us in last few days. Hopefully we in with a chance.

[Ben Lewis]

METO latest tweet;

Thursday:

"Rain in south... but low risk of that turning to snow!"

I really think this one will have to be a nowcast event, will go either way! 

[snoangel]

My first year living at the top of the North Downs... I have high expectations for tonight's 'event'! 

[Southender]

I think the likely outcome is rain with a spell of snow on the back edge. Little chance of accumulations. Still, will be nice to see some flakes at last!

[Kent Blizzard]

Just now, snoangel said:

My first year living at the top of the North Downs... I have high expectations for tonight's 'event'! 

Tonight? do you know something I don't