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SE England and EA Regional Weather Discussion


A.J

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2 minutes ago, Ben Lewis said:

@snowking great looking chart that would see snow in Hertfordshire.

However TV forecasts are going with a possible south of London event.

What are your thoughts on northern Home Counties getting snow on Thursday? 

Yes, the raw fields clearly modified by the chief forecaster at Exeter one would presume as the BBC Graphics are EURO4 fed at shorter range to bring it into line with some sort of current model consensus.

Speaking of which - the fact that we have such a mixed bag from high resolution forecasting at present (AROME, ARPEGE and NMM not especially interested in accumulating snow at this juncture) goes to show just why this is far from nailed as of yet - look at the shift of emphasis from the raw EURO4 in the last 6 hours from 12z (posted earlier in here) to 18z. And then we have the famous NEMS showing something similar to the EURO4 12z on its 18z run:

nmmbfr_nmmb-26-47-1.png?11-00

Right now the best estimate for this region is that good old M4/Thames Corridor for the 'bullseye' hit (and it should be noted that the further South this bullseye hits, the lower the overall risk of snow as it will engage less colder air for less time the further South the interaction takes place) - but there is definitely a margin for error for this of up to 50-60 miles further North right now as per the 18z EURO4. Let's put it this way, I would still be more comfortable sitting South of the home counties as it stands right now, especially given those likely modified fields shown on the BBC TV forecast presently probably indicative of some of the MOGREPS-R input.

By this time tomorrow we should have some sort of indication hopefully (from MetO/BBC guidance) of the UKV's perspective on this too so the exact track should be a little clearer.

Right now, Northern home counties ~30%, that M4 line ~50%, further south ~20% would be where I put the probabilities.

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God one run and it's melt down already in the model thread.  Peoole never ever learn.  Same bunch off people too!!! 

Hence why you will never see me ramp up anything till maybe 6hrs before because it can change right at the last minute!!

 

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6 hours ago, snowking said:

Yes, the raw fields clearly modified by the chief forecaster at Exeter one would presume as the BBC Graphics are EURO4 fed at shorter range to bring it into line with some sort of current model consensus.

Speaking of which - the fact that we have such a mixed bag from high resolution forecasting at present (AROME, ARPEGE and NMM not especially interested in accumulating snow at this juncture) goes to show just why this is far from nailed as of yet - look at the shift of emphasis from the raw EURO4 in the last 6 hours from 12z (posted earlier in here) to 18z. And then we have the famous NEMS showing something similar to the EURO4 12z on its 18z run:

nmmbfr_nmmb-26-47-1.png?11-00

Right now the best estimate for this region is that good old M4/Thames Corridor for the 'bullseye' hit (and it should be noted that the further South this bullseye hits, the lower the overall risk of snow as it will engage less colder air for less time the further South the interaction takes place) - but there is definitely a margin for error for this of up to 50-60 miles further North right now as per the 18z EURO4. Let's put it this way, I would still be more comfortable sitting South of the home counties as it stands right now, especially given those likely modified fields shown on the BBC TV forecast presently probably indicative of some of the MOGREPS-R input.

By this time tomorrow we should have some sort of indication hopefully (from MetO/BBC guidance) of the UKV's perspective on this too so the exact track should be a little clearer.

Right now, Northern home counties ~30%, that M4 line ~50%, further south ~20% would be where I put the probabilities.

Me and my big mouth...

This morning this envelope has definitely shifted northwards with the Home Counties being the average latitudinal consensus amongst hi-res modelling, though Euro4 continues to have a significantly higher snow signal than most so caution due

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1 hour ago, Surrey said:

God one run and it's melt down already in the model thread.  Peoole never ever learn.  Same bunch off people too!!! 

Hence why you will never see me ramp up anything till maybe 6hrs before because it can change right at the last minute!!

 

Apart from thunder in the summer lol

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BBC breakfast forecast has us under heavy snow tomorrow evening rush hour!:blink2: That's gonna be a tricky drive to work tomorrow night if it does materialise.

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Looking good for some snow tomorrow,may start as rain but should turn to snow later as the northly under cuts the rain.Dont think it will settle,maybe a bit on high ground but would be great to just see snow falling for us starved of it in the south.

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how is it looking for the far South East? As that front crosses through  will it also turn to snow as it pushes through here (Thursday). All I can see is images/screenshots for further north and west (London/Sussex). 

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11 minutes ago, jodaw84 said:

how is it looking for the far South East? As that front crosses through  will it also turn to snow as it pushes through here (Thursday). All I can see is images/screenshots for further north and west (London/Sussex). 

not sure you will get a lot down there as the northly will take a while to reach you so mild sw winds will take a while to shift but you may see snow falling on the back edge for a hour

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21 hours ago, Lauren said:

 

Yeah, I was being tongue in cheek.

 

But sadly my old little car does not have effective enough heating to do that.

Phew! Order has been restored!

Yeah, I knew that.. ;)

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Friday morning before rush hour could be another window to watch 5am-7am.

Tomorrow afternoon is all about timing for us, once the Wind swings to the colder NW'ly it'll be game on......let's hope it doesn't run out of juice :rofl:

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What I'm more pleased about is its a lesson to anyone that makes stupid winter is over calls with two months to go.

Not only that on NYD people were writing off the rest of Jan, it's a lesson to all that the weather can quickly change and that's why anything past 5 days is regarded as FI (Fantasy Island).

It's also another learning curve for us all and well worth keeping all the charts in the lead up and during for future research/learning whether it snows, rains or falls on its bum totally!

 

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Well, it's quite mild out. A few banks of grey fluffy clouds, no breeze. Quite pleasant bah bah.

No hint to me of anything remotely snowy atm, no icy-ness in the air. I await to say different come 3pm and i'm freezing.

One of mums says it gonna snow on Friday too, wonder where she gets her infos, cos it may not even do anything Thursday yet. 

Looking forward to the down-grades from this moment on. 

 

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Looks better and better for us in the south east,the front will stall over us for a few hours and depending how fast the Northly can under cut the front there could be 2-4 cm for us in the outskirts but would think London would be just to warm

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Morning All, having just seen the BBC News channel's weather report I am a bit worried. I have to go to Tewkesbury tomorrow for a 0900 meeeting, which means i am travelling back to SE London in what looks like blizzard conditions :shok:

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Just now, fulham snow said:

Looks better and better for us in the south east,the front will stall over us for a few hours and depending how fast the Northly can under cut the front there could be 2-4 cm for us in the outskirts but would think London would be just to warm

First time in years we have something to cheer about. I just hope that the dewpoints will be low enough. Judging by the metoffice app in Epsom, it has no clue what is going on! I have been watching the symbols since Tuesday and it has gone from heavy snow, light snow, heavy rain back to light snow.. lol. Currently it says sleet.

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2 minutes ago, fulham snow said:

Looks better and better for us in the south east,the front will stall over us for a few hours and depending how fast the Northly can under cut the front there could be 2-4 cm for us in the outskirts but would think London would be just to warm

Not convinced London will be too warm judging by the forecasts on BBC24. reckon there might be a dusting on town, which, as we know, is enough to bring the capital to a complete halt :nonono:

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