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SE England and EA Regional Weather Discussion


A.J

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1 hour ago, Kent Blizzard said:

Nice uppers and we look like well have the wind, quite a potent breeze too .... :)

We could always send out free Vindaloos to everyone round the Cheshire Gap area ...to generate a bigger blow ;)

That one looks more like the Thames needs a little nudge, it's an easterly, fingers crossed, but a long way out.

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56 minutes ago, slater said:

Exactly what I thought, well confused this chart on is for Monday, 

IMG_1023.PNG

I'm not paying much attention to the GFS for now, keeps being a warm outlier, fingers crossed it's not a trend setter.

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4 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

GFS I believe, and that really was a dire run for long term cold.

But we do have a chance (famous 1960s band, ECM and the Hopecasters?) of a short-lived Continental flow. I know it's, as the late Paul Daniels was wont to say, not a lot...But it's better than nothing!:D

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5 hours ago, Changing Skies said:

ECM precipitation charts are quite bullish on the precip. 

Well by Friday winds are essentially a northerly from the high Arctic picking up that moisture off the North Sea, good for the infamous triangle of doom? :D

Ironically on Friday there is a bit of a mild sector coming down from the north, going south down the North Sea courtesy of a shortwave/low I'm not sure it could be a polar low tracking southwestwards down the North Sea. I suppose the sea level will respond to this, not great. 

ECM 00z T+96

IMG_1576.GIF

ECM precip charts:

IMG_1569.PNGIMG_1570.PNGIMG_1572.PNG

Not too dissimilar to 1953 synoptic chart for reference which resulted in disastrous flooding to the east coast and  the Thames Estuary. Quite strong N/NW'ly winds with a depression moving southeast down the North Sea. It's not a good mix combined with spring high tides. I'm not sure but does the upcoming active period coincide with a high spring tide?

@JennyJane1 I'd say there is a definite risk of a surge/coastal flooding along the east coast. I'd watch things closely. 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/in-depth/1953-east-coast-flood

IMG_1575.PNG

 

That is a good spot. It's not a spring tide at the moment but the current cycle appears to peak towards the end of this week. The high tide on the Essex Coast on Thursday is around midday when that low pressure is off the Southern tip of Norway, so it could be problematic. 

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We could be onto something for Thursday looks mostly S of the M4, heavier precip near the S coast -5C 850hpa isotherm cleared S coast, with the help of evaporative cooling and timing, proper snow could be on the forecast! The wave like feature is also backed by the fax at T72, with Ian F addressing it in one of he's tweets. 

image.gif

Precipitation + sufficient uppers?.....

image.pngimage.png

 

 

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5 hours ago, Changing Skies said:

Not too dissimilar to 1953 synoptic chart for reference which resulted in disastrous flooding to the east coast and  the Thames Estuary. Quite strong N/NW'ly winds with a depression moving southeast down the North Sea. It's not a good mix combined with spring high tides. I'm not sure but does the upcoming active period coincide with a high spring tide?

@JennyJane1 I'd say there is a definite risk of a surge/coastal flooding along the east coast. I'd watch things closely. 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/in-depth/1953-east-coast-flood

 

 

That is not good, I grew up on the Essex coast and lots died on Canvey Island that night, awful.

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^ I'm not making a direct comparison Jenny, I just think it should be monitored as there is an unusually elevated chance of the North Sea being angrier than usual, it is fortunate we're much more able to defend ourselves from such events compared to 60 odd years ago, they still do pose danger to life and properties nonetheless. 

Anyway holy smokes is that a light snow icon I see. :blink2: :clap::crazy:

IMG_1580.PNG

 

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Just checked my BBC, I have sleet at 18;00 then light snow at 21:00 which is still there at 00:00 and 3:00, that sure as hell is not going to happen. I can dream though.

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Morning -

Todays ECM & UKMO @144 are the first time since 2010 that a bitterly cold easterly has got into the 120-144 timeframe -

Its of course never guarenteed until the 72 hour plots so for now we need to cross our fingers & wait for Thursdays 00z - if were still on the same page then we could start to get excited - plus in the mean time from Thurs theres pretty solid cold from the North anyway with ever increasing chances of snow ...

ECM uppers for SE are

0- -3

24- 1

48- -4

72- -6

96-  -7

120- -8

144- -8

168- -8

192- -10

216- -9

240- -9

as it stands reliability runs to 120.....

S

 

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1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

Morning -

Todays ECM & UKMO @144 are the first time since 2010 that a bitterly cold easterly has got into the 120-144 timeframe -

Its of course never guarenteed until the 72 hour plots so for now we need to cross our fingers & wait for Thursdays 00z - if were still on the same page then we could start to get excited - plus in the mean time from Thurs theres pretty solid cold from the North anyway with ever increasing chances of snow ...

ECM uppers for SE are

0- -3

24- 1

48- -4

72- -6

96-  -7

120- -8

144- -8

168- -8

192- -10

216- -9

240- -9

as it stands reliability runs to 120.....

S

 

Thanks Steve , fingers crossed. Nearly always wake up to dissapointment on the 00 runs . Not today 

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After the initial northerly I'd love the ECM option to be right, potential snow fest for the south east. Like Steve says we need to get it to t-72 before we start waxing the runners. 

:cold:

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Just now, Mark wheeler said:

Was that on to on website . I only just caught the end . My BBC forecast says rain then snow 

Was on the BBC breakfast this morning about 06.45 but I've seen two different forecast since then - one showed more rain with sleet and snow further North and the other one still shows the snow further South... Basically they're still unsure where that low will track.

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They are quite certain beddy will get some spots of rain, forecast quite stubborn and has been. 

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9 minutes ago, lawrenk said:

According to the main thread, that nice Mr Hugo has just tweeted that the ECM Scandy block scenario has 100% backing from its' ensembles!

Bring it on!

Matthew Hugo ‏@MattHugo81  15m15 minutes ago

Well here's a vote of confidence; all 51 EC ENS members by 168hrs showing blocking regime as per the EC model with a developing Scandy block

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