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SE England and EA Regional Weather Discussion


A.J

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1 minute ago, Wivenswold said:

Man With Beard on the Angus thread is suggesting that the centre is moving slightly further north than predicted, I wonder if that means stronger than forecast winds up the EA coast. 

Hold on hold on! I was just reporting one model (albeit a fairly credible one, the ARGEPE) out of quite a few that keep it further south. The model i would expect to be closest is the EURO4 and that keeps the worst of this monster in the channel.

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36 minutes ago, Blessed Weather said:

Thanks guys ^^. Still a little niggle in my head as Fergie's latest tweet predicts the sting coming ashore between Portland Bill and Isle of Wight at 00.00 to 03.00 and that first WX chart for 03.00 shows that small area in exactly that area. His tweet:

Fergie tweet 20 Nov.jpg

The sting jet is in the wrap-around of the core of the low. The AROME zoom has hourly time steps and it shows the strong winds just ahead of the centre. Best seen in the zoom option. Probably squall lines there too.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/aromezoom.php

9446_tmg3.png     9492_ptk0.png

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Wind picking up strength here now, I think the forecasters have this right so far, the peak does seem to be on track for a 5am-7am spell.

Let's hope the peak loses some strength, It could be a messy morning on the roads. 

I hope we don't read silly posts in here saying it wasn't that bad, wasnt worthy of a warning, hardly any trees fallen etc like we've had in the past in here!

 

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3 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

Wow even on xc weather it's marked up at 62 mph gusts, at the sort of time I had a couple of 68 mph gusts. Was thinking it was my station. Valey funnelling accounts for the extra probably.

http://www.xcweather.co.uk/

I feel for you down on the coast, probably only about 30mph here but seems more louder with the rain.

The peak now looks to be just as it starts to get light, might go for an early walk.

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