SE England and EA Regional Weather Discussion

[Dami]

5 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

Can we come in yours?

norty lass.

 

[Polar Bear]

Ola all..

so ive been off radar for a bit watching the forums and the weather.. So what's the prognosis so far to this storm? 

 

Current track according to latest models? Potential Wind intensity? And rough timing? I take it a deluge of rain too in the mix. 

Shipping forecast has up to Force 10, southwesterly. Wight and Dover. That's mean for the channel although we have seen worse in recent years. Key though is it southwesterly. I haven't checked tides yet and for most of south coast if we are in neaps or spring any where. 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/marine-shipping-forecast/#portland

[lassie23]

6 minutes ago, Dami said:

norty lass.

 

Just started raining here.

 

1 minute ago, Polar Bear said:

Ola all..

so ive been off radar for a bit watching the forums and the weather.. So what's the prognosis so far to this storm? 

 

Current track according to latest models? Potential Wind intensity? And rough timing? I take it a deluge of rain too in the mix. 

Shipping forecast has up to Force 10, southwesterly. Wight and Dover. That's mean for the channel although we have seen worse in recent years. Key though is it southwesterly. I haven't checked tides yet and for most of south coast if we are in neaps or spring any where. 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/marine-shipping-forecast/#portland

Looks like the Isle of Wight will get roughed up with gust up to 80mph, think rain will be more of an issue in London rather than wind speeds.

[shotski]

Looking forward to the first storm of the autumn season, hopefully we'll get a bit of curtain action tonight :-) 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

So the reason for the "streaks" in the wind maps today which I have never really seen is down to the high res models picking up on convection and heavy showers after the main rain..

Taken from metcheck:

But Sunday morning the strongest winds are across the Southeast corner :- 

Again, the showers show signs of being very squally and gusty which is on top of an already strong surface wind. 

The area for interest for us will always be in the Southeast quadrant of the low. Upper data here suggests that there is the potential for convection within the warm sector and this is responsible for helping divert strong winds above the surface to down to the surface resulting in the highest winds. Needless to say that 70-80mph is enough to bring down weak trees and cause structural damage to buildings as well as cause problems with travel and power supplies. 

If you are staying up to watch the system then watch the radar for any echoes in the showers which arrange themselves into bands as these are likely to see the highest wind gust areas. 

So, a November storm, but this one needs to be taken seriously as it's not your average Autumn blow and could cause a few issues for Southeast England by Sunday morning. 

[frogesque]

Stay safe down there everyone. Thinking of you.

[katemart]

31 minutes ago, Sussex Jules said:

I always thought that Hants belonged in South East thread. Welcome to the mad house!!

Thank you. I think it was in SE, a few years ago, but then you get rid of us and went with EA instead. *sniff*  But I'm not bitter.

I've got a bit of a "feeling" about this one, too. So many warnings have come to nothing in this neck of the woods lately, and it seems a very unusual set-up.

997mb and falling rapidly, 5C, ENE and light.

 

 

 

 

[steveinsussex]

Bring it on 

[SenlacJack]

Rainfall is intensifying here but still barely a breath of wind, I expect that to change later.

[Mark wheeler]

A viewer rung in today to say there is a hurricane on the way , but don't worry their isn't .

[NO LONGER POSTING]

2 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

A viewer rung in today to say there is a hurricane on the way , but don't worry their isn't .

Famous last words..

[katemart]

1 minute ago, Mark wheeler said:

A viewer rung in today to say there is a hurricane on the way , but don't worry their isn't .

Oo-er, isn't that bit like saying Macbeth in a theatre or whistling on a boat... ?! Quick, turn around the salt and throw some spit over your shoulder!

[bobbydog]

9 minutes ago, Surrey said:

So the reason for the "streaks" in the wind maps today which I have never really seen is down to the high res models picking up on convection and heavy showers after the main rain..

Taken from metcheck:

But Sunday morning the strongest winds are across the Southeast corner :- 

Again, the showers show signs of being very squally and gusty which is on top of an already strong surface wind. 

The area for interest for us will always be in the Southeast quadrant of the low. Upper data here suggests that there is the potential for convection within the warm sector and this is responsible for helping divert strong winds above the surface to down to the surface resulting in the highest winds. Needless to say that 70-80mph is enough to bring down weak trees and cause structural damage to buildings as well as cause problems with travel and power supplies. 

If you are staying up to watch the system then watch the radar for any echoes in the showers which arrange themselves into bands as these are likely to see the highest wind gust areas. 

So, a November storm, but this one needs to be taken seriously as it's not your average Autumn blow and could cause a few issues for Southeast England by Sunday morning. 

Yes luke, being hi res, they are showing (obviously as a forecast) estimated squall lines. Seems to be quite a few in quick succession which is fairly unusual. These will be be where the strongest gusts are (the gazebo killers!) After the main rain band has passed.

[shotski]

6 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

A viewer rung in today to say there is a hurricane on the way , but don't worry their isn't .

The legend that is Michael Fish

[Mark wheeler]

This reminds me of the famous storm in 87 . I was just quoting the famous words spoken at the time .

[lassie23]

14 minutes ago, katemart said:

Thank you. I think it was in SE, a few years ago, but then you get rid of us and went with EA instead. *sniff*  But I'm not bitter.

I've got a bit of a "feeling" about this one, too. So many warnings have come to nothing in this neck of the woods lately, and it seems a very unusual set-up.

997mb and falling rapidly, 5C, ENE and light.

 

 

 

 

Should dump East Anglia as clearly nobody lives there

[Dami]

2 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

Should dump East Anglia as clearly nobody lives there

I'm sort in the middle of the land in a sort of the middle kind of way.

[lassie23]

2 minutes ago, Dami said:

I'm sort in the middle of the land in a sort of the middle kind of way.

middle earth?

[Dami]

Bedford is not quite EA not quite midlands not in the south. i dunno

[shotski]

Can someone post the charts from the great storm of 87 for comparison, I can't do it from meteociel on my mobile. 

[Mark wheeler]

Obviously this is not the actual charts but this is the famous forecast.

 

[lassie23]

1 minute ago, Mark wheeler said:

Obviously this is not the actual charts but this is the famous forecast.

 

How did that person who contacted him know a hurricane was coming?

[I remember Atlantic 252]

only midnight and midday though, think it was at its windiest in the morning

[Mark wheeler]

And some detail of that night here. I'm going to have a read myself now.

https://blog.metoffice.gov.uk/2012/10/12/how-did-the-great-storm-of-1987-develop/

[NO LONGER POSTING]

It gon' be a bit windy for sure

 

 

Edited November 19, 2016 by Surrey