SE England and EA Regional Weather Discussion

[JennyJane1]

4 minutes ago, SenlacJack said:

As boring and non-eventful as the weather has been for quite some time I can't say I'm looking forward to this storm. Right in the firing line down here as well :-(.

Looks like it is going to curl round this stretch of the coast too, i hate storms.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Looks like it's being ramped up a bit I will keep the live charts at hand and post throughout the evening.

Not sure where bbc are getting 70mph for inland areas though??

[leedsnowfan]

2 minutes ago, Surrey said:

Looks like it's being ramped up a bit I will keep the live charts at hand and post throughout the evening.

Not sure where bbc are getting 70mph for inland areas though??

Yeah im still getting 54mph as top gust at 4am on BBC recent update

Edited November 19, 2016 by leedsnowfan

[gottolovethisweather]

Angus incoming then. 

 

https://blog.metoffice.gov.uk/2016/11/19/angus-the-first-named-storm-of-autumn-2016/

 

Might be a tad windier than my latest video clip on naturestimeline suggests, I'd say.

[Dami]

Frosty start. Sunny now with some cloud. A nip in the air but certainly not icy. Stood out in just a t-shirt and only wished for a cardie.

Would like to thank the postman who delivered a parcel with a late present in it, but lied to the sorting office they had posted a card. Won't give parcel on pain of death, not even photo ID or a printout of tracking details. Hubs cross. Don't do to annoy the hubs. It better be here Monday.

Not looking forward to the wind. Windy enough on Sundays after the roast. It can rain. I have my new boots.

 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

18 minutes ago, leedsnowfan said:

Yeah im still getting 54mph as top gust at 4am on BBC recent update

I wouldn't pay too much attention to the details in the wind arrows etc as they are never right. Case of following the live links and watching to see the track it takes.

Also think the strongest of gusts will occur in any heavy showers that come rattling through later on 

Edited November 19, 2016 by Surrey

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

2 hours ago, Blessed Weather said:

Well BBC Weather have just tweeted their latest graphic and it's looking very unpleasant. Fingers crossed those 70 to 80 mph gusts don't happen as trees coming down and property damage will certainly occur.

That graphic makes me wonder what the Met Office expect for East Anglian, Malcolm?  If they anticipate 70 mph gusts as far north and west as Oxfordshire and the south midlands, might they think we're in line for something similar?

[Blessed Weather]

22 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

That graphic makes me wonder what the Met Office expect for East Anglian, Malcolm?  If they anticipate 70 mph gusts as far north and west as Oxfordshire and the south midlands, might they think we're in line for something similar?

It's a complicated looking Low (with warm fronts, cold fronts, occluded fronts and a trough) that looks as if it reaches its lowest pressure (972 mbar) as it crosses the UK. I'm wondering if the area of strong winds at the centre of the depression that shows over the Midlands on the BBC graphic is being caused by a 'sting jet' effect which would only give very strong winds in a narrow corridor of around 30 miles width that lasts for a few hours. The possibility of this was mentioned by @Changing Skies in an earlier post.

There's a simple-to-understand paper from the Met Off here: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/2/p/Sting_Jet_Flyer.PDF

The doubt in my mind is that a 'sting jet' typically involves a warm and cold front fracturing - and the Fax Chart is showing an occluded front, so other opinions on this would be welcomed.

I've marked on the Met Off Fax Chart below where it looks as if the front could fracture.

So up there in Norfolk you could well be in the track of that central band of strong winds as it moves from the Midlands out into the North Sea. Further south we're all under tightly packed isobars with maybe enhanced gusts as fronts or troughs pass through. I would say 50 to 60 mph gusts possible for anywhere in our Region with 70 to 80 mph possible nearer the coasts. But it will be worth checking the 12z output from the various high res models later on to get the latest update on 'how strong' and 'where'.

[lassie23]

Bit windy tonight then

[Guest]

Afternoon all, I haven't had a chance to see the weather as am in he process of moving house. I'm in Kingston, Surrey - could anyone let me know if I am online for anything? Thank you muchly x 

[Nouska]

14 minutes ago, Blessed Weather said:

But it will be worth checking the 12z output from the various high res models later on to get the latest update on 'how strong' and 'where'.

Looks spectacular on water vapour imagery - just starting the turn now.

http://brunnur.vedur.is/myndir/seviri/2016/11/19/seviri_eurnat_wv6-2.html#

[Blessed Weather]

3 minutes ago, Nouska said:

Looks spectacular on water vapour imagery - just starting the turn now.

http://brunnur.vedur.is/myndir/seviri/2016/11/19/seviri_eurnat_wv6-2.html#

Incredible images! Thanks Nouska.

[lassie23]

4 minutes ago, madmunch said:

Afternoon all, I haven't had a chance to see the weather as am in he process of moving house. I'm in Kingston, Surrey - could anyone let me know if I am online for anything? Thank you muchly x 

Going to be wet and windy for the SE tonight including Kingston

[Dami]

Stupid post man put the note for the parcel in the wrong door. Not the only thing that is wet and windy it seems. GAH.

getting dark here now.

[Guest]

4 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

Going to be wet and windy for the SE tonight including Kingston

Thank you Lassie, think I will leave moving the garden furniture then, save myself s soaking Lol

[bobbydog]

Weather warning out for the south-east. 

Amber for Sussex and Kent 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/mobile/warnings/se

[lassie23]

5 minutes ago, madmunch said:

Thank you Lassie, think I will leave moving the garden furniture then, save myself s soaking Lol

Might get moved for you by the wind lol,

[bobbydog]

Talk about the 'calm before the storm'-

Not even a breath of wind out there....

[runboy]

14 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

Talk about the 'calm before the storm'-

Not even a breath of wind out there....

Indeed, so still in Norwich right now. Cloudy now after a lovely crisp sunny day. I wonder what we'll get tonight, wife got to be at work for 4am so hope not too windy.

[Delka]

Luckily I'm just about as North as anyone else in this group, so I am hoping to escape any damaging winds but I'm not ruling out the odd strong gust overnight and have put all my garden furniture away for the winter! Perfectly calm out there, no breeze at all and completely blue, was a great sunset!

[NO LONGER POSTING]

hmmm sting jet I will look at that in a second... 

 

This maybe why the Met have the Wind warnings further inland and the mention of higher gusts..  Here is Angus as of 14:48 this afternoon.

Notice the track it now is showing... MUCH further North than previously anticipated.. 

If this is correct everything I posted earlier is now out of date!

GFS 12z is a touch off having the low further south...

 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Looking at it, a sting jet cant be ruled out, although I think the deepening of the low will happen to early (not over land) for anything like that to happen

Literally the calm before the storm here not a breath of wind!

 links to keep everyone in the loop !

Rain:

http://www.raintoday.co.uk/

Wind:

http://www.xcweather.co.uk/GB/observations

Pressure:

http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/Atl_tab.shtml

SAT:

https://aviationweather.gov/obs/sat/intl/

 

 

[Laurence Hill]

3 minutes ago, Surrey said:

Looking at it, a sting jet cant be ruled out, although I think the deepening of the low will happen to early (not over land) for anything like that to happen

Literally the calm before the storm here not a breath of wind!

 links to keep everyone in the loop !

Rain:

http://www.raintoday.co.uk/

Wind:

http://www.xcweather.co.uk/GB/observations

Pressure:

http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/Atl_tab.shtml

SAT:

https://aviationweather.gov/obs/sat/intl/

 

 

Thanks Surrey

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

1 hour ago, Blessed Weather said:

It's a complicated looking Low (with warm fronts, cold fronts, occluded fronts and a trough) that looks as if it reaches its lowest pressure (972 mbar) as it crosses the UK. I'm wondering if the area of strong winds at the centre of the depression that shows over the Midlands on the BBC graphic is being caused by a 'sting jet' effect which would only give very strong winds in a narrow corridor of around 30 miles width that lasts for a few hours. The possibility of this was mentioned by @Changing Skies in an earlier post.

There's a simple-to-understand paper from the Met Off here: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/2/p/Sting_Jet_Flyer.PDF

The doubt in my mind is that a 'sting jet' typically involves a warm and cold front fracturing - and the Fax Chart is showing an occluded front, so other opinions on this would be welcomed.

I've marked on the Met Off Fax Chart below where it looks as if the front could fracture.

So up there in Norfolk you could well be in the track of that central band of strong winds as it moves from the Midlands out into the North Sea. Further south we're all under tightly packed isobars with maybe enhanced gusts as fronts or troughs pass through. I would say 50 to 60 mph gusts possible for anywhere in our Region with 70 to 80 mph possible nearer the coasts. But it will be worth checking the 12z output from the various high res models later on to get the latest update on 'how strong' and 'where'.

Cheers Malcolm; good to refresh my memory on sting jets.

[Hurricane Debby]

4 hours ago, SenlacJack said:

As boring and non-eventful as the weather has been for quite some time I can't say I'm looking forward to this storm. Right in the firing line down here as well :-(.

Hi SenlacJack. I'm new to Hastings and I don't know if to be excited or a tad worried ! I've got a gazebo which isn't even screwed properly to the floor so I don't think I'll be seeing that tomorrow....